Sophie Taylor, senior associate, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
Speculation. Kite flying. Rumours. U-turns. It will all, finally, be drawn to a close this week as the chancellor reveals the Autumn Budget.
In what feels like a never-ending pre-budget period – with around thirteen different tax proposals floated in the past weeks – there’s a lot counting on this budget for both the public and the Labour party’s political fate. At 12:30pm on Wednesday afternoon, Rachel Reeves will try to rebuild fiscal credibility while balancing political commitments and fostering economic growth.
We can expect Reeves to announce an extra £14.5 million for Grangemouth (£) as the former refinery site transitions into a green industrial hub, and her plans to ditch the two child benefit cap – a move to appease Labour backbenchers – dominated headlines this weekend. The chancellor laid out her various priorities (£) in The Sunday Times.
Outside of the budget bubble, this morning Martin Geissler and Laura Maciverlaunched their new show, Radio Scotland Breakfast, in place of the former Good Morning Scotland (GMS). The presenters – who have worked together on both The Nine and on the Friday editions of GMS – aim for the show to be “less formal” and “more conversational” than its predecessor.
Tomorrow, deputy first minister Kate Forbes will visit the Fife Ethylene Plant at Mossmorran, which is set to close next February. She has, however, been urged by the secretary of state for Scotland, Douglas Alexander – who believes the impacted workers “deserve better” than Forbes’ approach – to attend a meeting today held by Fife Council, to discuss a council-led taskforce.
European leaders, who rejected Donald Trump’s latest proposal for a Russian-Ukraine peace deal, met yesterday to discuss changes to the 28-point US plan. EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen had warned it would leave Ukraine more vulnerable to Russian aggression in the long term. US and Ukrainian negotiators are said to have drafted an “updated and refined” framework.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
Ahead of Wednesday’s budget, Reeves has revealed she plans to raise £500 million a year by eliminating the tariff exemption for individual goods costing under £135. This means that Prestwick Airport in Ayrshire could see a dent in its recently-won Chinese freight business. Earlier this year, Hong Kong Air Cargo extended its global network to include Prestwick Airport in a potential boost to Scottish exports and the airport’s revenue stream.
A coalition of 18 law firms has called for changes to be made to allow non-lawyers to invest or own equity in Scottish law firms (£). The Alternative Business Structures (ABS) Scotland Group has pointed to a “looming succession crisis” in the legal sector, warning that some firms could disappear as senior partners retire without a qualified successor.
The UK has become the most expensive country in the world to build a nuclear power station (£) due to various environmental, safety and bureaucratic process, a review by the Nuclear Regulatory Taskforce has found. It criticised the UK’s excessive focus on eliminating risk and the increasingly onerous planning progress.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
David Whitehouse, chief executive of Offshore Energies UK, wrote in The Scotsmanthat the chancellor’s budget will be critical for the future of the North Sea (£), shaping energy security and Scotland’s industrial future. He calls for the windfall tax to be reformed because it is “choking off investment, driving job losses and failing to deliver the expected revenues”, adding that it will undermine homegrown progress in renewables and low-carbon projects.
The Danish political model, though held in high regard by many, doesn’t work in practice, Cas Mudde argues in The Guardian. Mudde contends that social-democratic parties are likely to both fail in winning over far-right voters and alienate the progressive electorate if they try to adopt far-right positions. This can be seen in Keir Starmer’s attempt at winning over Reform UK voters, for example, which has contributed to Labour losing support to the Greens and Lib Dems.
The Scotland National Team has put together a short video, Scotland: embedded,telling the story of a defining moment in its history by capturing raw moments of the rollercoaster game that saw Scotland’s men qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Shifting the dial - recent research
With less than six months to go before the next Holyrood election, YouGov has captured the political mood in Scotland in its latest Scottish political snapshot survey.
Key findings include:
- The UK government’s approval rating is drastically lower than its Holyrood counterpart. 25% of Scots approve of the Scottish Government (with 56% disapproving), while only 9% approve of Labour’s record in power so far (and 75% disapprove)
- This time last year, just over half of Scots thought both Keir Starmer and John Swinney were doing a bad job. But now, criticisms are firmly aimed at the former. Swinney is the most popular current party leader in Scotland with a favourability rating of 32%, while only 19% reported a favourable opinion of Starmer (lower than Reform UK’s Nigel Farage at 22%)
- The SNP are the party Scots are most likely to consider voting for, with 37% of the Scottish public saying they would think about voting SNP in a future election
- Just half of 2024 Scottish Labour voters say they would consider voting for the party again
- The Scottish public is split 49% ‘yes’ to 51% ‘no’ over whether or not it would back independence in a second referendum, with younger Scots more likely to be undecided on how they would vote
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
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Westminster
- Culture, Media and Sport Committee, oral evidence: The work of the BBC
- Lords, statement: Update on ExxonMobil Mossmorran
- UK: Business secretary Peter Kyle and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) annual conference
- Belgium: EU trade ministers will meet in Brussels to discuss the state of play and prospects for EU-US trade relations, and will be joined by US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick to discuss transatlantic trade co-operation
Tuesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Stage 1 Debate: Children (Withdrawal from Religious Education and Amendment of UNCRC Compatibility Duty) (Scotland) Bill
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- The Finance and Public Administration Committee will take evidence on the cost-effectiveness of Scottish public inquiries, including from the deputy first minister, Kate Forbes
- The Health, Social Care and Sport Committee will take evidence on the Food (Promotion and Placement) (Scotland) Regulations 2025 and consider the Assisted Dying for Terminally Ill Adults (Scotland) Bill at Stage 2 (Day 4)
- The Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee will take evidence on the draft Climate Change Plan
- The Equalities, Human Rights and Civil Justice Committee will take evidence on human rights, equalities and access to services in rural areas of Scotland
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Scottish Government data
- Community ownership in Scotland, 2024
- Private Sector Rent Statistics, Scotland, 2010 to 2025
- Export Statistics Scotland, 2023
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Westminster
- Westminster Hall debate: Pension investment in UK equities
- Third Delegated Legislation Committee, debate: The draft Education (Scotland) Act 2025 (Consequential Provisions and Modifications) Order 2025
- Housing, Communities and Local Government Committee, oral evidence: Housing conditions in England
- Industry and Regulators Committee, private meeting: The Building Safety Regulator
- Industry and Regulators Committee, oral evidence: Water regulation
- Communications and Digital Committee, oral evidence: AI and copyright
- Reports: Germany Q3 GDP estimate
- UN International Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women
Wednesday
- UK Autumn Budget
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party Debate: Energy
- Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party Debate: Finance
- Portfolio Questions: Rural Affairs, Land Reform and Islands; Health and Social Care
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- The Education, Children and Young People Committee will consider the Tertiary Education and Training (Funding and Governance) (Scotland) Bill at Stage 2 (Day 1)
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Scottish Government data
- GDP First Quarterly Estimate, Quarter 3 2025
- GDP Monthly Estimate, September 2025
- Transport and Travel in Scotland, 2024
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Westminster
- Commons, oral questions: Scotland
- Prime Minister’s Question Time
- Budget Statement from chancellor Rachel Reeves
- Scottish Affairs Committee, private meeting: Securing Scotland’s Future – Defence Skills and Jobs
- OECD launches its Environmental Outlook report
Thursday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- First Minister’s Questions
- Members’ Business: Jackson Carlaw: Glasgow City Council's Plans for an At-city-boundary Congestion Charge and a Toll on Using the Clyde Tunnel
- Portfolio Questions: Social Justice and Housing
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Scottish Government data
- Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) Weighted Scotland Estimates, Wave 144
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Westminster
- Commons, Financial Statement: Continuation of the budget debate
- Lords, oral questions: Effect of the budget on small and medium-sized businesses
- Reports: UK quarterly and long-term migration statistics
- Ireland: Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene speaks at the Goodbody 18th annual conference in Ireland
- US: Thanksgiving
Friday
- Black Friday
- ‘Make Amazon Pay’ campaign is planning protests and strikes against the global online retailer
- Reports: Canada Q3 GDP estimate; France November CPI, PPI inflation rate data, Q3 GDP update; UK Q2 profitability of UK companies
Saturday
- UK: Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana’s Your Party holds its first party conference, continuing until Sunday
Sunday
- UK: St Andrew’s Day, celebrated in Scotland
- First day of advent