Cameryn Dick, researcher, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
Parliamentarians at Holyrood and Westminster return from their summer recess this week; meanwhile Tuesday marks the meteorological start of Autumn.
As the seasons shift, John Swinney presents his Programme for Government, which will outline the Scottish Government’s priorities for the year ahead alongside a five-year plan for the remainder of the parliamentary term. With Swinney having passed his first 100 days in office, Tuesday’s statement will provide an early test of whether his government can translate its priorities into progress against a challenging fiscal backdrop.
Down in Westminster, Andy Burnham will face his first Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday. Glasgow and Edinburgh Chambers of Commerce have both urged the prime minister to back greater devolution for Scotland’s cities, arguing that the funding and decision-making powers available to English city regions are leaving Scotland’s cities at a disadvantage.
The Scottish Labour leadership contest will continue to heat up this week, with both candidates calling for new drilling to be approved at the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields. Joe Fagan has gone further, backing further North Sea drilling licences. The position puts both Fagan and Michael Marra at odds with Labour’s existing policy on new exploration licences.
Reform UK is also seeking the political spotlight this week, with Nigel Farage and his party due to set out what the hypothetical first 100 days of a Reform governmentwould look like at the party’s national conference.
You can also expect some fresh data this week, providing indicators on current business and economic conditions, with manufacturing, house-price and construction data due alongside a speech from Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
The Scottish Chambers of Commerce have made a final plea to the Scottish Government ahead of its Programme for Government, calling for an overhaul of business rates and a restoration of Scotland’s tax competitiveness. The business organisation argues the nation risks falling behind the rest of the UK without action.
The Herald reports that the number of people in Scotland working on zero-hour contracts has risen by more than 20% in a year, reaching 95,000 between April and June, up from 79,000 over the same period last year. The increase comes despite Labour’s pledge to ban “exploitative” zero-hour contracts, with the Scottish Trades Union Congress calling for the promised right to guaranteed hours to be delivered in full. The figures have also renewed debate over employment law, which remains reserved to Westminster, and the Scottish Parliament’s limited powers over workers’ rights.
GMB union warns that Scottish floating wind projects could be delayed, reduced or cancelled under the UK government’s Strategic Spatial Energy Plan. The plan, being developed with the National Energy System Operator, will map future energy production, storage and grid requirements. Scottish ministers have urged the UK Government to ensure it reflects Scotland’s established offshore wind pipeline, warning that failure to do so could undermine investor confidence and limit the sector’s potential to deliver jobs and economic growth.
Scotland’s population is expected to begin falling after 2033, prompting SNP ministers to call on Andy Burnham to consider plans for a Scottish visa, alongside proposed rural and graduate visa routes, to help address workforce shortages. The Scotsman reports that the Scottish Government argues a migration system based on UK-wide averages cannot adequately respond to Scotland’s demographic and geographic circumstances, with research from the Diffley Partnership finding that 68% of Scottish businesses believe migration is vital to addressing critical skills shortages. Downing Street has rejected the proposals, saying migration policy remains reserved to Westminster.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
Writing in The Financial Times, Elaine Moore considers the growing difficulty of distinguishing between human and AI-generated writing, arguing that attempts to police AI use could create a new problem of mistrust. While detection tools promise to identify machine-written content, the risk of false accusations is raising concerns among writers, universities and businesses, particularly as there is no foolproof way to establish whether text has been generated or merely assisted by AI. The piece argues that society is still negotiating where the line should be drawn between human and machine-written work, from literature to legal and professional writing.
An analysis by Greig Cameron and John Boothman for The Sunday Times asks whether Scotland’s difficult economic position has curbed John Swinney’s enthusiasm. The piece assesses 12 key government pledges, finding that seven have been met, while some prominent commitments, including the food price cap and £2 bus fares, have seen limited progress. With pressure growing to find savings and a potential £4.7 billion gap between spending plans and available funding by the end of the decade, the analysis is timely ahead of Tuesday’s Programme for Government.
Meta may be $18 billion poorer but still the real winner, writes Janet Daley in The Telegraph. The piece argues that despite Meta agreeing to an $18 billion settlement over the impact of its social media platforms on children and changes to features including infinite scroll and algorithmic recommendations, the company has avoided admitting liability or accepting that its products were deliberately designed to be addictive. It questions whether the settlement goes far enough in holding powerful technology companies to account for the consequences of their platforms.
Shifting the dial - recent research
Scotland’s universities face a £200 million funding gap, according to the first comprehensive assessment of the sector’s finances in 15 years. Led by Professor Sir Anton Muscatelli, the analysis finds universities are unable to recover the full economic cost of teaching and research, with the research funding gap reaching £580 million and an estates maintenance backlog exceeding £1.1 billion.
The report finds the shortfall is structural rather than one-off, with universities operating below full economic cost recovery in every year but one since 2016/17. Rising costs, declining real-terms public funding and uncertainty around international student recruitment are adding to the pressure. The findings will inform the next stages of the Future Framework, which will consider how the sector should adapt through to 2045.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
- Holyrood returns from summer recess
- Scottish Government: Consultation on protections in the justice system for women and girls closes
- UK: Summer Bank Holiday, with financial markets closed
- US: G20 finance ministers and central bank governors gather in North Carolina
Tuesday
- House of Commons returns from summer recess
- Holyrood: Programme for Government announced
- Holyrood: Europe, External Affairs and Culture Committee. The committee will examine the Scottish Government’s priorities for EU and external affairs, Scotland’s relationship with the UK and EU, international development, devolution and intergovernmental relations
- Scottish Government data: Alcohol Consumption and Harms Dashboard, Autumn 2026
- UK manufacturing PMI and Nationwide house-price data
- UK: British Retail Consortium monthly shop price data
- US: Massachusetts congressional primaries
Wednesday
- Holyrood: Portfolio Questions on Social Justice and Housing; Economy, Tourism and Transport
- Holyrood: Rural Affairs Committee. The committee will take evidence on the Rural Support Plan, hearing from representatives of NFUS, SRUC, Soil Association Scotland, the Just Transition Commission and the Scottish Crofting Federation before reviewing the evidence heard.
- House of Commons: Andy Burnham’s first Prime Minister’s Questions
- House of Commons oral questions: Foreign, Commonwealth and Development
- FTSE quarterly reshuffle announced
- EU: The European Robotics and AI Network demonstrates the continent’s most advanced AI-based robots at the European parliament
- US: Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s deadline to file motions to dismiss his criminal indictment
- US: Federal Reserve issues the Beige Book; August ADP employment change data; July factory orders data
Thursday
- Holyrood: First Minister’s Questions
- Reform UK National Conference begins, running until Saturday
- Scottish Government data: Scotland’s Census: Analysis of “Other Ethnic Group” write-in responses from the 2022 Census
- Campaigners to protest AI data centres outside the Scottish Parliament
- UK: Business Insights and Impact on the UK Economy
- House of Commons oral questions: Digital, Culture, Media and Sport
Friday
- Scottish Government data: Scottish Landfill Tax Statistics, Q1 2026-27
- UK construction PMI
- Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will speak on the UK economic outlook and the challenges facing monetary policy, with inflation, growth and the path for interest rates likely to be key themes