The Conservatives closed party conference season with their annual get-together in Manchester last week. The gathering took place in one of the most unprecedented and volatile political landscapes yet.
Having been banished to third place in the polls, the Tories face the prospect of being supplanted by Reform as the UK’s main right-wing party.
In this fascinating and perhaps existential context, here are four key takeaways from this year’s conference.
The Shadow of 2024
It was clear that whilst the Conservatives are not in denial over last year’s defeat, and the factors which led to it, the party is certainly still licking its wounds and coming to terms with the worst result in the party’s history.
Yet the party seems sandwiched between wanting to distance itself from its 14 years in government, and the unpopularity that came with it, and the relentless assault of Reform.
A significant portion of the 2024 electorate used their vote to ‘punish’ the Conservatives, regardless of whether they actually liked the party they were voting for. This in part explains why Labour’s fortunes have changed so drastically. But it also means that with the memories of the past 14 years still fresh, Reform are in a prime position to hoover up the support of dissatisfied voters, not the Conservatives.
This anxiety loomed large over conference, and there was a general sense of deflation and paralysis. The party is truly stuck between a rock and a hard place, and it’s unclear what, if anything, can be done about it.
Policy Blitz
With this context, it’s perhaps not surprising that a raft of policies were announced at conference. From scrapping the inheritance tax on farms, enforcing 150,000 deportations a year, repealing the Climate Change Act, and leaving the ECHR, amongst others. The Tories are hoping to influence the political agenda and recapture voters’ attention with policies that they think will command support, and seem deliverable.
In contrast, polling suggests that although Reform commands support, voters are sceptical about whether the party will be able to deliver its policies in Government, something which the Conservatives hope to exploit with considered and well-thought-out policies.
The flavour of the policies announced has certainly veered more to the right than under previous Conservative leaders. Perhaps outlining how Nigel Farage is setting the political agenda for all political parties. Or perhaps demonstrating that following COVID, the cost-of-living crisis, and a surge in immigration, the country itself is now more right-wing than it was 10 or even 5 years ago.
It’s the Economy Stupid
Throughout conference, it became clear that there was an appetite for the Party to lean back into comfortable territory of economic competence and budgetary restraint. At a packed-out fringe event, prominent pollster, Sir John Curtice, set out how, in the eyes of all voters, the Conservatives are trusted the most out of all parties to manage the economy and public finances. Reform, on the other hand, was trusted the least in this area.
Given how strongly influential economic policy is to voting intention, the hope is that the Conservatives can build on this to entice voters back.
Pledges to reduce spending by £47bn, scrap business rates for high street premises, and abolish stamp duty are the firing salvos of this plan of attack and is something we should expect more of.
There was also a renewed confidence amongst many delegates and Shadow Ministers that the Party’s relationship with business is more resilient and salvageable than originally feared. It has been widely reported that there is a strong sense of buyer’s remorse amongst businesses and business-oriented voters who supported Labour on the basis of their pro-growth agenda. To then be whacked by a succession of anti-business policies within months of Labour entering office has created a sense of resentment amongst many. The expectation is that this will benefit the Tories more than Reform, who are still mistrusted by many businesses and centre-right voters. This is reflected in the Conservatives’ impressively resilient fundraising efforts, having raised more than Reform, Labour, and the Lib Dems at the start of the year.
A Badenoch Bounce?
Conference can typically be a make-or-break moment for Conservative leaders, and going into this one, there was much speculation that Robert Jenrick would make an even more overt push to replace Badenoch.
That did not, in the end, materialise. Encouraged by the steady stream of policy announcements, which all seemed to land well, members and Shadow Ministers seemed happy to rally behind Kemi. Meanwhile, at the several fringe events Jenrick spoke at, he was unambiguous in his support for Badenoch and her leadership. Perhaps having learnt from Andy Burnham that an overt play for the leadership would not play well amongst members right now. Badenoch can also be relieved that there were no significant defections to Reform, which could have marred conference and spooked members and MPs into drastic measures.
The result is that Badenoch emerged from conference more secure in her leadership than before. Already, there has been a small bump in the polls for the Tories, and I’m told membership has also increased on the back of her speech, which has been well received across the party.
What Next?
We now have a clearer picture of what the Conservative offer to voters will be. The question then is whether it will resonate with voters, or if they will even notice. With 5 parties now vying for voters’ attention, it’s unclear if tight fiscal policies, combined with a socially conservative agenda which is light on inflammatory rhetoric, will be enough to cut through.