Back to the future
This reshuffle has proved to be the end of the line for ministers from across the Conservatives ranks. The historical big beasts of Ken Clarke and William Hague have both seen the end of their ministerial careers and take with them a number other ministers who could all have been seen to be key members of the Tory ‘modernisation’ project that dominated the party’s period in the doldrums of the noughties. Willetts, Barker, Green, Grieve, Duncan and Lansley were all major players in creating the Conservative Party that we see today (for better or for worse) and their departures, along with Owen Patterson and David Jones from the right of the party, mark a clear attempt to break with the past and look to the future. Much like last autumn’s reshuffle, this was again one for the class of 2010 who, in the guise of Morgan, Truss, McVey and Hancock, now find themselves firmly entrenched around the Cabinet table along with a number of other colleagues from the same intake, including a significant number of women, at junior levels.
Gove, but not forgotten
The movement of Michael Gove out of DfE will be warmly met by teaching unions, but like him or loathe him, there can be no denying that the now former Education Secretary has created a huge upheaval in the Department and may well be remembered as the most ‘reforming’ Minister that Cameron’s Government has seen. It could though be viewed as an odd move by Cameron. After all, teachers voting for the Conservatives is similar to turkeys voting for Christmas, so it is not as if this is going to win their votes, and the education agenda has been perhaps the Government’s most consistent. However, it does remove perhaps the most belligerent and dogmatic of Tory ministers from the Cabinet and is a clear attempt to detoxify and remove one of Labour’s easiest targets before the election. That said, the promotion of Nick Boles – one of Gove’s disciples at Policy Exchange – and the reinstatement of Nick Gibb into roles at DfE in combination with the increasingly formidable and publicly impressive Nicky Morgan should mean that the teaching unions should not rest easy just yet.
Campaign Cabinet
It is telling that in moving Gove, Number 10 were very keen to stress that it was ‘not a demotion’ and that unlike other Chief Whips, he will play a central public role and will be at the fore of the party’s public image going into the election, indeed one wag labelled him ‘Minister for the Today Programme’. In addition, having such a senior member of the Party run the whips office is an important call for party discipline from the Prime Minister and gives him perhaps even more authority on the backbenches.
Gove’s move, along with Hague’s to ‘de facto Deputy Leader’ and Grant Shapps staying put as Chairman (with all three still attending Cabinet) means that a formidable triumvirate has been formed of seasoned campaigners, all of whom are very much up for a fight in 2015 – and, unfortunately for their Liberal Democrat colleagues, they are to remain at the heart of Government. The additions of Hague and Gove to his right hand side along with the ever-present George Osborne mean that the Prime Minister’s position within his party has arguably never been more secure. This move, along with the promotions of Matt Hancock, Penny Mordaunt, Priti Patel and Esther McVey show that the Conservatives have suddenly got very serious about 2015.
Old dogs, new tricks
For all the talk of a reshuffle for women and the end of the ‘grey, pale and stale’ Cabinet, there were three key victories for some old Tory warriors. Philip Hammond has been rewarded for his spend-thrift nature in the tricky Defence brief with a move to one of the ‘great offices of state’ at the Foreign Office. It is notable that Cameron has chosen this moment to place a Eurosceptic in this key position and is also a glimpse into a future Conservative Government where we could well expect to see George Osborne and Hammond switch roles (if Westminster gossip is to be believed). In addition, for a man who was told that he was most likely to be a victim of the coalition, Michael Fallon’s star continues to rise as he moves into the Ministry of Defence – a clear reward for the industry and energy he has shown across his diverse briefs which puts a no-nonsense character in a no-nonsense brief. Finally, Lord Hill – a relative unknown in contrast to the ‘big name’ that the Foreign Office called for – has been nominated to represent Britain at the EU Commission. Some have seen this as a snub by Cameron to the new President Juncker and it could well be seen to diminish the UK’s chances of getting the European Internal Market brief that it has publicly lobbied after for some time.
Labour’s women problem?
Ed Miliband could be forgiven for taking a certain amount of credit for the promotions of a number of Tory women into the cabinet given his persistent desire, up until now, to point out their absence in contrast to his own front bench. However, it could be argued that in pushing such an agenda he has risked undermining his own front bench come election time. There are a now a number of women in key roles within the Cabinet and just below – all of whom now have a chance to gain vital experience and gravitas – something which a number of the Labour front bench could be accused of lacking.
A final point is that the Conservatives have shrewdly portrayed this reshuffle as creating a revitalised and energised Government ready to continue the job after the next election. Sitting Governments often lose because they look tired and out of ideas. While the latter may well be true – and amplified in a five year parliament – doubts about the former have been seemingly removed and that is a real danger for Ed Miliband.
You can find other blog entries and opinion pieces, including a weekly summary of PMQs, on the Pagefield website.