From safe seat to Green gain – where Labour, the Greens and Reform go next from Gorton and Denton

It’s a particularly damaging result for Labour, given Gorton and Denton has long been considered a safe seat, and the party’s own data must have indicated that they were on course for a win, given the fact that the Prime Minister visited the constituency earlier in the week. The result was not just a political failure but an organisational one as well.

While increasing the pressure for Keir Starmer – with potential business implications outlined below – the result will also focus attention on both Reform and the Greens.

Labour: Pressure on strategy, policy, and communication

The result challenges Labour’s assumption that it can contain Reform at the next General Election by consolidating anti-Reform voters. Here – as at the recent Welsh Senedd by-election in Caerphilly – that strategy did not work, with a credible challenger on the Left showing that it was possible to mobilise and consolidate the anti-Reform vote behind a non-Labour candidate.

As a result, several dynamics are now at play:

• Continued pressure on Starmer’s leadership: The lack of a clear successor is likely to protect Starmer in the immediate short-term, with no credible voices calling for change today. However, with a poor performance at May’s local and devolved elections predicted, it will become harder for him to hold discipline within the PLP and wider Labour Party.
• Questions over Labour’s strategic direction: Many within the PLP will be looking for a meaningful shift in strategy, with pressure on the Prime Minister to shift to the left both in policy terms and personnel – both facilitated by Morgan McSweeney’s recent resignation. This would potentially include greater levels of public spending and even more emphasis on cost of living issues. Increased speculation on a future reshuffle should also be expected. In addition, a strengthened Green Party will put pressure on Labour’s stance, and those of individual MPs, on a range of domestic and foreign policy issues.
• Push for more effective Government communications: In the immediate term, we can expect an even stronger focus on retail policy announcements that appeal to the electorate, focused on measures around the cost of living.

Greens: The next steps are national

There is a mood of cautious optimism within the Green Party – celebratory, but far from complacent. While the party is revising upwards the number of target seats it is aiming for at the next general election, the clear feeling is that the real work starts now.

With the usual caveat that by-elections can be out of kilter with general election results, it’s notable that Gorton and Denton is not even the most fertile ground for the Greens in Manchester. There are at least three other Manchester constituencies that are seen as higher-priority targets, and when viewed alongside opportunities in London, Bristol, other northern cities and university towns, the electoral map begins to suggest the potential for the Greens to win a significant number of seats if momentum builds.

Beyond the math, this will also support an already meaningful shift in how voters perceive the Greens and voter psychology. For many, the calculation has historically been – even if supporting the Green Party as a member – to vote Labour to keep the right out. This by-election is being interpreted by many as evidence that voting Green is no longer a “wasted vote” – but a viable route to representation, in fact, in many areas the Greens will now be able to present themselves as the dominant progressive choice. That shift in perception could be electorally powerful.

It is also interesting to consider the demographics underpinning this trajectory. The Greens are increasingly resonating with younger voters. If that younger voter base consolidates, especially in urban and university constituencies, it could become a defining feature of the party’s next phase.

The result is also a triumph for the approach of Zack Polanski, who has repositioned the Green Party from one being primarily focused on environmental issues to one that campaigns across a wider range of populist left-wing issues. Crucially, he and the party recognise the challenge of translating targeted local community campaigning on issues they are confident in, into a coherent national story that appeals to a broader set of the electorate, ahead of May’s local election. The test will be whether the Greens can scale their community-level success into a credible, durable national platform.

It will be important for businesses to follow this emerging broader national policy thinking and begin considering more about how they can engage with the Greens, a party that has typically been a closed shop to corporate engagement.

Reform: Facing a demographic ceiling?

While Matthew Goodwin was unsuccessful on this occasion, only parts of this seat were natural territory for Reform, and this is not a target seat for the party, so achieving a vote of c.29% will give the party confidence of a potentially high support base nationally.

However, it does highlight demographic challenges the party faces, what appears to be a natural ceiling on Reform’s support, and the extent to which non-supporters are increasingly motivated to use the first-past-the-post electoral system to rally to the best placed candidate to beat them.

Implications for business

In the short-term, the by-election result will mean that Government is operating with reduced political headroom and an increased need to demonstrate visible delivery on the most politically salient issues, particularly the cost of living, especially in the run-up to the local and devolved elections.

For businesses, that means Government will be searching even harder for announcements it can present as policy wins. Where pro-growth policies potentially challenge the cost of living and affordability narrative, there will be challenges for business. Where Government can play a role in supporting businesses to grow the economy, we can expect a readiness to engage on technical details behind the scenes, with a focus on making it easier to do business in the UK.

However, the narrative will be crucial. The government will be more cautious about potentially contentious choices and measures that can in any way be framed as unfair or misaligned with voter priorities.

More broadly, an increasingly fractured political environment will mean:

• A more influential role for Parliament and wider influencers: As Labour manages increasing pressure from both flanks and within its own Party, backbench MPs are likely to play a stronger role in influencing policy detail and ministerial positioning. In this environment, strengthening parliamentary relationships and engagement, through Select Committees, APPGs and constituency MPs will become even more important in order to drive pressure on Government to act. Non-parliamentary voices such as trade unions are likely to increase in significance.
• Framing arguments in terms of voter priorities: Government will increasingly be judging policy through the lens of whether it can show tangible benefits for workers, families and communities, particularly around the cost of living and affordability. For businesses, underscoring engagement with clear proof points that align with this will have a stronger impact than technical arguments alone. Reputationally, businesses need to show their alignment here.
• Future proofing relationships: In a less predictable political environment, businesses need to avoid over-reliance on a single set of ministers or MPs. This is the moment to build and maintain relationships across parties and to stay close to people shaping policy thinking in Government and beyond, to protect priorities as politics and personnel shift.
• Reactive and unpredictable policymaking: Increased political sensitivity will raise the likelihood of reactive shifts in messaging and prioritisation, particularly if further polling reinforces fragility and fragmentation for Government.