Since the Gorton and Denton by-election in June, the path to Number 10 for Andy Burnham has been remarkably clear. The matter of who will move in next door at Number 11 has been less so. And even now, with just days to go, the decision has remained a closely guarded secret - though frontrunners have continued to not so subtly set out their stall to broaden their appeal to business.
Most interesting of these has been today’s key policy shift from Ed Miliband. Reports suggest that the Energy Secretary would be willing to approve at least some drilling in the North Sea by granting a licence for gas drilling at Jackdaw. Speaking ahead of the official consultation closing on 10 August, his team is banking on this early signal extracting support for his Chancellor bid by softening his perception as a net-zero zealot.
Jackdaw, located off the coast of Aberdeen, is one of two licences in the North Sea approved by the previous Conservative government (and therefore not covered by Labour’s manifesto ban on new North Sea licences). According to its owners, Jackdaw could produce enough gas to meet the needs of around 6% of UK homes this winter, while the other (Rosebank) would produce oil likely to be sold in a global market. Miliband has previously criticised drilling Rosebank as “climate vandalism”, though had reportedly softened in his position to Jackdaw following the US-Iran war.
The move aligns Miliband more closely with Andy Burnham’s position, who has said he is “open minded” about North Sea drilling where it could help Britain’s cost-of-living crisis. It also comes amid renewed pressure from industry and trade unions to protect UK jobs and manufacturing capability by supporting domestic gas and oil production. In an open letter to more than 400 Labour MPs issued today, organisations urged MPs to back a “stronger and fairer” transition, which “builds on our industrial strengths rather than overlooks them”.
The precise timing is hard to ignore. Today is a day of political goodbyes in Westminster, with Keir Starmer's final Cabinet meeting as Prime Minister and Rachel Reeves’ expected last Mansion House speech as Chancellor. Through this lens, Ed Miliband’s willingness today to back a gas project once seen as antithesis to his department’s climate agenda is not simply a softening on energy policy, but an early signal of how a Burnham-Miliband-led government could operate.
Indeed, it points to the central role that regional growth and ‘reindustrialisation’ could play in the incoming government’s pitch for national renewal. Today’s narrative has overwhelmingly focused on jobs, regional investment and industrial capability over national benefit and indeed impact on national energy goals.
More widely, this may serve as an insight into how such a government could operate, using targeted support for industries and communities to demonstrate tangible progress alongside pursuing those longer-term national missions. At the very least, it may suggest an acceptance that those ambitious plans for economic transformation and net zero must be accompanied by visible, near-term benefits that people can see in their own communities first.