Almost a year after its landslide election victory, the government continues to make health a central pillar of its political mission. At the recent Spending Review, the NHS emerged as one of the biggest winners, with the Chancellor Rachel Reeves announcing a record £29 billion real-terms investment to “get the NHS back on its feet and fit for the future”.
Around 90% of the new funding was allocated to the Department of Health and Social Care, building on the significant funding boost at last year’s October Budget. It’s clear the government is betting big on health - investing political capital and resources into one of the public’s top priorities. But will it be enough to deliver?
This recent 3% real terms funding increase was broadly welcomed. However, this still remains below the historic post-war average of 3.6% and many of the usual concerns were raised over if this is enough to drive significant and tangible improvements that voters feel.
Linked to this, the Prime Minister recently hailed the creation of 3 million extra appointments since July and initial falls in waiting lists as some of his proudest achievements so far. However, doubts have been cast over how ambitious this target for additional appointments was, and whether it represents an improvement on the year before.
In addition, while early progress on waiting lists has been promising, a rise in May after seven months of decline marked a setback. With many millions of voters stuck on waiting lists, cutting these remains one of the central metrics of success for the government, and sustained and rapid progress on this is essential.
With challenges across a range of other areas - including the economy, immigration, and a looming and politically damaging backbench rebellion over welfare reforms – Labour continues to lean into its traditional strength on the NHS.
It has tried to draft sharp contrasts with Reform UK’s supposed support for an insurance-based health model, but Reform’s consistent poll lead and recent electoral success suggests these attacks aren’t cutting through so far.
Most crucially, to benefit politically the government must demonstrate to voters that these significant funding allocations are paying dividends and delivering visible improvements across the NHS services that voters experience regularly.
However, focusing on health is not a panacea for the government and the complex and thorny issue of social care remains an ongoing vulnerability. Whilst the Whitehall troubleshooter Baroness Louise Casey is working on an independent commission to build cross-party consensus behind reform, critics argue the timelines are too slow for a sector facing severe challenges.
The government is facing growing and focused pressure on this front from the Liberal Democrats, as well as the Health and Social Care Committee who recently released a report which described continued inaction as "untenable".
This is just one example of the range of health challenges and associated political headaches facing the government. The recent Spending Review reflected both the scale of these challenges and the government’s clear intention to deliver on key health issues.
All eyes are now on the upcoming and long-awaited NHS 10-Year Plan which is set to be released next week, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Reports suggest the plan has undergone multiple delays and last-minute rewrites, with the HSJ describing it as “a mess”.
Meanwhile, the government also faces other immediate challenges, including dealing with the dual threat of striking resident doctors and nurses, as well as managing the abolition of NHS England.
Still, with its struggles elsewhere, Labour will continue to try and leverage its historic advantage and long-standing credibility on the NHS. However, with the rising spending pressures facing the government, there is a growing consensus that - without tough choices - taxes are likely going to have to rise in the autumn.
The government came into power promising to fix the NHS and tackle a range of deep-rooted problems, and its ability to deliver is a key harbinger of its future political fortunes.
With political pressure building and public expectations high, health could prove to be both Labour’s biggest opportunity and its greatest political risk in the months and years ahead.