The dust settles on another round of local elections. A political event that often passes large numbers of the nation by, shown by poor turnout across the country.
Whilst often described via the Americanism of a ‘mid-term’, these elections are for once under the microscope, as they were the last big set of simultaneous, country-wide electoral tests before the General Election. Regardless of the spin from No 10, these results were nothing short of a disaster for the Conservatives.
On what to read from these results, Science Minister Andrew Griffith said that “you wouldn’t call a football game after 30 minutes”, The reality is, we’re deep into injury time, and coupled with current polling of around an eyewatering 30-point lead, there appears to be no comeback for the Conservatives.
The Conservatives were widely expected to lose hundreds of council seats and control of a number of councils, but results reflecting a near worst-case scenario expectation (think Andy Street’s loss and Susan Hall losing big) have now put Rishi Sunak in a very uncomfortable position looking ahead to the General Election later this year.
Not only did the Tories lose almost half the council seats they fought, but the manner of the third-term win in London for Sadiq Khan and the extraordinarily tight margin of the upset win for Labour’s Richard Parker over Andy Street in the West Midlands exemplified the extent of Labour’s dominance over their Conservative counterparts.
The Tories came under fire from all angles, with Reform to their right, and the Lib Dems and the Greens to their left in the traditional blue wall. Conversely, Labour suffered from their left too, with the party suffering largely from voters angry due to their position on Gaza.
The Prime Minister extrapolated that these results mean there will be a hung parliament, however many psephologists including legendary Sir John Curtice, have disregarded this. Although the good news for Sunak is that the infamous “plotters” and their plans have dissipated and decided that this is going to be his defeat, and he will have to own it.
It also means that any rumours on a summer election are also squashed, as the Conservatives hope that with time, and with further economic figures going in the right direction, the tide may turn.
On the other hand, the Labour Party are chomping at bit for the General Election with its eyes firmly on taking the keys to No10. Labour will also take some comfort that, whilst gains were not quite as high as expected, the Labour vote increased in key target areas, such as the Red Wall, West Midlands and Essex. Expect Sunak to continue insisting that the plan is working, and Starmer to continue calling that the country is crying out for change.
For more information on local results and in-depth analysis, please visit Cavendish’s local elections hub.
by Finlay Henderson, Senior Account Executive