Hillary Clinton was the continuity candidate at a time of fundamental change. And more than anyone she is an embodiment of the American political establishment. Trump’s victory makes sense in the context of global political change; Brexit here in the UK and now Trump’s election confirm the effect globalisation is having on western politics. As with Brexit and the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum, those who have lost out in the globalised economy voted for change.
The American white working class feel left behind. Real term wages are lower than they were four decades ago; both Mom and Dad now have to work to make ends meet and automatic college education for their children is no longer a given. And a failure by working people to understand the global movement of capital and the dollar in particular has led, as it has here in the UK, or more specifically England, for immigrants to be blamed for society’s woes.
And for some the prospect of a female President to follow the first ever African American president was a step too far. The glass ceiling remains and may do so for some time.
Once Trump is sworn in as the 45th US President on January 20th 2017 what can we expect? The Republicans continue to control both the Senate and the House and Vice President Pence will be given the task of working with Congress to move Trump’s agenda forward. A new “conservative” Supreme Court judge will be appointed to sustain a right wing majority on the court. Women’s rights may come under attack and despite Trump’s agenda it would be difficult to see Congress putting many barriers in the way of US companies outsourcing manufacturing abroad.
Internationally Trump has called for European countries in the NATO alliance to “pay their fair share” of defence costs. More worrying will be Trump’s policy towards resolving the Syrian conflict and how he engages with Putin. Tony Schwartz co-author of Trump’s book “The Art of the Deal” has said “Trump is totally willing to blow up the world to protect his fragile sense of self. Please God don’t give him the nuclear codes.” Those of us who lived through the Cuban missile crisis know that humanity was saved only by the best endeavours of a President with a deep understanding of international relations and the need for compromise. Trump possesses neither of these qualities.
Will Trump want to control the forces he has unleashed? Will it be open season on Hispanics and African Americans? His “conciliatory” comments in his acceptance speech about Clinton’s contribution to American politics and the need to “pull the country together” may be little more than straws in the wind.
At times like these I am reminded of Mohandas Gandhi’s response to the question as to what he thought of western civilisation. “It would be a good idea” he said.