A new political map of the world has revealed the true balance of power in every country across the globe, in findings which should worry those who support democracy.
The Global Parliament Index, the first study of its kind, is published by the London-based political consultancy Arden Strategies. It provides a snapshot of the world’s political leanings at the start of a year in which over 2 billion voters go to the polls in over forty countries - an unprecedented number of national elections in a single year.
Analysing the politics and policies of every national government across the world, the study places them into nine distinct political categories: Authoritarian/Populist Left, Far Left, Left Wing, Centre Left, Centrist, Centre Right, Right Wing, Authoritarian/Populist Right, and Dictatorships.
It creates one virtual global Parliament containing 1000 seats, with each ‘MP’ representing about eight million people.
In this Global Parliament:
- The largest political grouping is made up of dictatorships with 310 seats - or 31% - none of whom are elected in a democratic election;
- If populists and authoritarians of all political persuasions are added to the dictatorship grouping, they represent 38% of the global population. If this combined group – which consists of autocrats and theocratic dictators – were to set aside their differences, they would be sitting together in a combined grouping of 374 of the Parliament’s representatives;
- The only grouping large enough to outvote the populists, autocrats and dictatorships is the ‘popular front’ of all the very loosely defined democratic forces. But even if every Centre-Right, Centre-Left and Centrist government in the world entered an (unlikely and very broad) coalition, they would only just secure a majority - representing 51% of the world’s population, with 512 seats;
- Centre-Right governments lead nations of just under 34% of the world’s population, making up 338 seats. 36 of those seats are 'held' by authoritarian or populist right-wing governments;
- The Centre-Left trails behind dictatorships and the Centre-Right, representing just 28% of the global population. It represents 275 seats in the Global Parliament, including 25 populist or authoritarian leftists.
Arden Strategies’ Managing Director, former UK Cabinet Minister the Right Honourable Jim Murphy commented:
“Record numbers of people will vote in 2024 and the world will look and feel significantly different by the end of this year. Much of the international debate centres around a global struggle between autocracies and democracies. This study suggests that fight is on a knife-edge.
“Arden’s Global Parliament Index is the first report to ever set out the political balance across the world. Our findings are also the first detailed analysis of which political outlook has the greatest influence across every government. There is a very real possibility that by the end of this year most people live in a country outside the mainstream Left, Centre, and Right.
“It is also a stark warning of how fragile democracy is across the globe, and the danger that 2024 could be the year of the autocrat. We have identified that - even on a very generous definition of democracy - only half of the world’s population currently live in a generally democratic country.
“More people have the chance to vote this year than in any other year in human history. The next few months have the potential to shape the world for a generation to come.
“Arden will track, trace, and analyse the outcome of each election and regularly update the Index to reveal changes in the global political temperature.”