It has been apparent for quite some time that voters in Scotland, as in many other countries in the world, are unhappy and looking for change.
While John Swinney may have hoped he had steadied the SNP ship over the last few months, to win back disaffected voters, a disappointing loss at the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse proved otherwise.
With Scottish Labour emerging victorious, Anas Sarwar gratefully received a much-needed boost following nearly a year of disappointment and dwindling support which, in most part, is down to the UK Government’s Year 1 performance.
But that doesn’t mean the road ahead is clear for either of Scotland’s governing parties. Far from it, in fact.
The threat of Reform UK no longer theoretical. Successive polls have Nigel Farage’s party polling in the mid-to-high teens, which could see it win as many as 15 seats at the Scottish Parliament election next year.
However, recognising risk is one thing. Knowing how to respond to it is a whole other matter.
Look at the first minister’s attempts over the last few months. Swinney has said he wants to save Scotland from what he has described as a “hard right” threat. The Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has spoken of Reform’s “poison” and referred to Farage as the “chief clown” in the “Reform circus”.
Those remarks and that rhetoric ignore the fact that Reform UK isn’t only winning support from those who might consider themselves to hold very right-wing views. It’s attracting everyday voters who are dissatisfied with the world they see around them. Voters who don’t believe traditional political parties and politicians are standing up for them. Now, there are arguments to be made on whether Farage and his colleagues would do just that, but for now they need only talk the talk and encourage voters to imagine they can walk when required too.
This week, we have seen Swinney pivot to at least try to address the situation with a slightly different approach. Rather than talking down to voters and merely brushing over why they might be turning towards Reform, he has made two speeches, with both attempting to speak to slightly different audiences. With these speeches he has attempted to address the issues he believes matter to voters, like the protection of public services.
The first was a long overdue pledge to overhaul public services. Swinney has said there has to be “fundamental change”, with many services creaking under the strain, including the NHS, with a call for more focus on prevention and early intervention.
But, as is so often the case, the detail of how this would actually be achieved was missing. We expect to hear more in the coming days but given the SNP’s delivery failures over the last few years, it’s hardly surprising that several eyebrows were raised at promises of change to come.
In his second speech, Swinney spoke to the SNP faithful, once again making the case for independence. Since taking over the top job, the first minister has been quiet on the constitutional question and for good reason as it has slid down the priority list of many voters. But a defeat in the by-election – which came as a shock to the party – has led to fears that some core base supporters are turning away.
The last few months have shown the fear our traditional parties have in the rise of Reform UK. While previous iterations of Farage’s party have failed to grasp Scottish voters in ways they have elsewhere, if the polls are right, this could all change next May.
It has taken too long, but it seems like our political leaders have started to realise that talking down to those who are willing to lend their vote to Reform is not the answer. People want to see politicians who understand the issues facing them, whether that’s long waits in the NHS, concerns over schools, potholes or the cost of living.