Thursday’s by-election in Gorton and Denton is shaping up to be a genuine three‑way contest between Labour, Reform UK, and the Green Party, with several voters still undecided. Whichever way it goes, the campaigning approaches of parties facing opponents on two fronts will set the scene for the upcoming local and devolved elections in May.
Historically considered a strong Labour seat, it is now looking like a real possibility that Reform or the Greens could take the seat, although predictions from polling in three-way seats, like in Caerphilly last year, are notoriously hard to call. MRP polling has predicted a Reform win with around 30% of the vote, with Electoral Calculus currently giving Reform a 59% chance of winning. A recent constituency poll by Omnisis predicts a Green win, closely tailed by Reform.
What makes the race particularly volatile is the unusually large pool of undecided voters. Omnisis found that while the Greens polled 20%, Reform 17% and Labour 15%, nearly a third (or a striking 27%) of respondents said they had yet to make up their minds.
Earlier this month, my colleague David Hopps wrote his analysis as a Manchester local of how the constituency’s varied demographics will influence the direction in which a historically broad base of Labour voters may swing. Gorton wards have populations averaging 40% Muslim and over 40% university students or graduates, who are warm to Green criticism of Labour’s actions on Gaza and populist left offerings. Meanwhile Denton’s more traditional working class, largely white, Labour vote is being hotly targeted by Reform.
More surprising given the splintered demographic voting patterns, are the voters choosing between the two populist parties at different ends of the political spectrum. The Manchester Mill quoted local voter Paul, who said: “I’ve said, and I’m gonna be perfectly honest with you, it’s Green or Reform”. He is leaning towards the Greens on account of a high doorstep presence and a candidate with local roots, but credits his soft spot for Reform to his history as a Thatcherite voter. For undecided voters like him, how parties play the doorsteps will be vital.
Both Green and Reform have positioned the race as a two-horse race between them. This benefits both parties, able to play off voters’ fears of the other party’s extreme views on the doorsteps. The Prime Minister, however, described the by-election as a “straight fight between Labour and Reform” in his unexpected visit to the constituency yesterday, leaning on Labour HQ’s tactical voting strategy for by-elections. Risky for a by-election that Reform is marketing as a “referendum on Keir Starmer”, his visit suggests Labour still thinks there is all to play for in this by-election.
The winner of the three-way by-election will be hard to predict but what's certain is that the tactics used here will be a testing ground for May elections.