Ahead of the last General Election, the prospect of one party failing to win a majority and the advent of coalition government was predicted to cause upheaval for the UK. It was said that a hung Parliament would lead to political instability, a failure to deal with the budget deficit, and a crisis for the financial markets.
Looking back, despite the tensions and tantrums which are a mark of any Government, Coalition government has functioned effectively. Although inevitably there have been areas of disagreement and policy areas where action has not been taken, there has been a strong mutual agenda for Government and a moderation by both parties of some of each other’s policies. Many in the media and indeed the wider electorate have now grudgingly come to accept that we are now in an era of two-party Governments.
But what if we’re not? What if our next Government is to be formed, or requires the support to function effectively, of more than two parties?
The growing fragmentation of British politics is well publicised. UKIP is consistently achieving over 15% in opinion polling and its expected victory in the Rochester by-election is likely to give it significant momentum heading into the election, where some commentators believe the party could realistically win up to 10 seats.
Two opinion polls last week indicated that the SNP is likely to win significant numbers of seats in Scotland, largely at the expense of the Labour Party. It is clear that the SNP will be sending a significantly larger contingent of MPs to Westminster after May 2015. The recent rise of the Green Party as a challenge to both Labour and the Liberal Democrats, although unlikely to translate into many more parliamentary seats at the next election, and the continued dominance of the DUP in Northern Ireland, further reflects the trend towards multi-party politics.
It has long been accepted that the outcome of the next General Election is likely to be another coalition. However, recent analysis by Peter Kellner of YouGov suggested that the success of UKIP and the SNP, the continued poor performance of the Liberal Democrats, and the failure of either the Conservatives or Labour to cut through in marginal seats make it at least a possibility that the electoral arithmetic will make it impossible for any two parties to form a coalition. There is the potential for the next Government to be composed of three or more parties, or - perhaps more likely considering the likely opposition from the Conservatives in particular to a ‘rainbow coalition’ - to require the governing party to enlist the support of multiple parties on confidence and supply arrangements in order to allow it to pass key pieces of legislation.
This clearly has the potential to see significant ‘bargaining’ over policy. Recent media speculation over the Conservatives’ attempts to build relations with the DUP has seen the rate of corporation tax in the province highlighted as one concession which could be given in return for support. Alex Salmond suggested this weekend that the SNP may support a Labour Government in exchange for even further devolution.
The consequence for public affairs practitioners is that engaging with smaller and regional parties may take on a growing importance. Simply building relations with Labour and the Conservatives in the expectation that they, and only they, will define Government policy may no longer be enough.