Whatever challenges Birmingham City Council has faced over recent years, one of its strengths has been that it has at least had an administration with a stable majority, meaning that when difficult decisions have to be made, they can be.
Labour in Birmingham no longer has that luxury. A series of defections, many prompted by a brutal round of deselections ahead of next year’s elections, and a loss in a by-election, have left the administration in a precarious position. There are now more Labour councillors standing down next year than there are hoping to stay. Perhaps understandably, those who have either chosen to or have been forced to step back from politics are less motivated to turn up, even for important votes. After the last set of elections, Labour held 65 of 101 seats on the council. Today, that number is down to just 54, however illness and absence mean it is effectively lower. At a recent full council meeting, the administration relied on a single vote to get its business done.
Why does this matter? On a practical level they will need to pass a budget in the spring, a tough enough task at the best of times, let alone when faced with a slender or no majority. Managing important committees, including planning, also becomes much harder. Whilst they are not whipped, managing a planning committee is usually more straightforward when the administration has a strong majority, not least because they chose the majority of members. There is also a wider reputational risk for the city and the Labour Party resulting from the political turmoil.
Given that the next set of elections are only a few months away, and the presence of government commissioners in the city, all of this could be dismissed as a storm in a teacup if it weren’t for the unpredictability of those elections.
It would take a brave pundit to predict results in such volatile circumstances, but it seems highly unlikely that Labour, or indeed any party, will be able to command a majority alone. This is a situation that has been managed successfully elsewhere, but for the UK’s second city to be heading into an election with such uncertainty will concern investors and developers both here in the UK and internationally.
Birmingham continues to have enormous promise, with HS2 investment continuing at pace, major investments taking shape across the city core and estate regeneration starting in Ladywood and Druids Heath. The question for investors and developers will be how to navigate the politics locally within an ever-changing environment.
As the largest built environment agency in the city, Cavendish has a team of experts based on Colmore Row with the knowledge, connections and experience to help reduce risk and provide insight on the big questions facing investors and developers in the city centre and beyond.