Scanning the headlines this morning, you’d be forgiven for thinking Labour were a shoe-in to win the next general election. But do local elections actually predict general election results as well as journos would have you believe? This week’s Who’s Top Who’s Not gazes into the political-crystal-ball to work out what the results might mean for politics in the long term.
Top: Shabana Mahmood MP
A week ago, Shabana Mahmood’s name would have only been recognisable to all six of us who regularly receive Labour campaign updates to our inboxes, but now with her name splashed across every major news outlet reporting on Labour’s election glee and covering the morning radio round – she will be riding high on success.
But what does Labour’s local success mean for the next general election? Local elections are often better predictors of public sentiment towards the current government, rather than being able to predict the next. Labour has had some striking wins (most notably in Stoke-on-Trent: a key target), but the Labour rose-garden is muddied somewhat by the results of the last election.
These seats were last fought in 2019 when the Tories did badly (remember Theresa May having to apologise for such a poor result?) but Labour weren’t strong enough contenders to charm voters who would usually vote Conservative. Meaning that in 2023, it’s not as simple as Labour vs Conservatives; it’s more like Labour vs Conservatives vs Everyone-Else, hence the Lib Dems and Greens doing well last night. But this is unlikely to be replicated to the same degree at the general election next year.
Which is a shame, because Labour would have got away with it too, if it weren’t for those pesky fringe candidates…
Middle: Ed Davey MP
If the national papers couldn’t get Mahmood for a quote this morning, Ed Davey was eagerly awaiting in the wings, ready to wax lyrical about the results as a “hammer blow” for the Conservatives and a “groundbreaking result” for the Lib Dems.
And Davey’s analysis is not *technically* wrong. The Lib Dems are perfectly poised to sweep up the votes of the disaffected-centre-leaning voters who are grumpy with the main political parties – which is exactly where you want to be as Sunak and Starmer struggle to inspire the battered British public, leaving these voters with nowhere else to turn.
At time of writing, The Lib Dems have taken control of Windsor and Maidenhead Council for the first time in 16 years, and have toppled the Tories off their Brentwood throne. Much has been made about the Lib Dem battle against the Conservative ‘blue wall’ and this is seemingly beginning to have an impact. This is obviously good news for those in orange but Labour will also be pleased as their path to government is paved with the Lib Dems taking southern seats from the Tories.
Not: Greg Hands MP
If the results show anything so far, it’s that one of the top issues for voters was punishing the Tories.
No matter how you look at it, with the Tories having so far lost nearly 200 seatsand Labour having gained over 110, you wouldn’t need to study maths until the age of 18 to work out that that is not a good result for the Tories.
At this stage, it’s difficult to know if the Tories are actually that phased by the poor results. Sunak stayed put in Westminster for the days before the election, unlike the other party leaders who were on the campaign trail. Whilst vaguely named “Conservative spokespeople” and the odd brave Tory MP like Rehman Chishti MP have been quoted as saying this is giving the Party a reality check, Sunak still appears to be hiding behind his [Greg] hands, and has only given very limited public comment.
At least Greg, in his role as Party Chairman, can rest easy tonight now the local elections are over. Finally, he can go back to his day job of tweeting a photo of a 13 year-old scrap of paper on an hourly basis.