It’s been almost exactly a year since Labour swept into government promising a “decade of national renewal.” The mood at the time was unmistakable, that the country had had enough of chaos, scandal, and stagnation. Labour offered discipline, focus, and above all delivery.
So where are we now? On housing, at least, the numbers tell their own story.
Labour’s flagship promise to deliver 1.5 million homes in five years was never going to be easy. According to new research from West One Loans, the government is currently on track to meet that figure by 2036, not 2029.
In the three quarters since Labour took office, just 86,000 new homes have been started in England - an improvement, to be fair, on the previous government’s final stretch, but still nowhere near what’s needed. To stay on target, the government would need to be building at least 370,000 homes a year. At current pace, we’re getting barely one-quarter of that.
Of course, ministers insist this is all part of the “ramp-up phase”, and perhaps it is. Housing policy, like infrastructure, moves slowly. Planning reform takes time. Red tape can’t be cut in a day but progress is underwhelming.
Behind the scenes, my bigger worry is not delivery but discipline, and Labour’s grip on it is loosening. The Planning and Infrastructure Bill, which was supposed to turbocharge development, is now under threat from the party’s own backbenches. After last month’s rebellion over welfare reforms, backbench MPs are once again circling. Labour MPs are planning to rebel over the Planning and Infrastructure Bill after constituents raised concerns that it threatens protected habitats and wildlife. Many are deeply uneasy about liberalising planning policy or fast-tracking major projects in their own constituencies, even if that’s exactly what their leadership says is needed. A precedent has now been set, and the whips do not appear to be in control of the parliamentary party.
If the Bill stumbles in the Commons, or like the Welfare Bill, watered down and bastardised to such an extent it is no longer worth the paper it is written on, the chances of hitting housing targets will go from slim to nil. And if this government can’t pass its own major reforms, what exactly is it offering.
Yes, it’s early days. And yes, many of the problems Labour inherited are deep and long-standing. But the danger for this government one year in is that the gap between promise and reality is starting to look not just wide, but permanent.
And when even the party’s own MPs start blocking the road ahead, it’s fair to ask what happens to the whole project then?