Portland is pleased to share the latest publication in the Starmer’s Britain series - Starmer’s Britain: The Battles Ahead.
As the government looks to put the fallout from the Welfare Bill behind it, and the diagnosis of how well the first year has gone dies down, the Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his inner circle will be gearing up for the battles ahead.
Although there is a long way to go until the next general election, new polling by Portland has found that 56% of all voters believe the government has had enough time to implement change.
In the face of these challenges, Portland’s report underpinned by polling, looks at the key factors that will inform the political environment that lies ahead for this government, in a year to come that must be about delivery. Our experts reflect on the looming battles across the People, Places and Polls, and Policies and Politics that will shape the rest of Starmer’s government.
The report includes insight from Alastair Campbell, Senior Adviser at Portland, James Bevan, Portland Director and former Labour Special Adviser – along with Steve Morris, Portland Chair, Leena El-Refaey Director and former Civil Servant, Gus Riddy Associate Director and former Labour Combined Authority Officer and Gabriel Milland, Head of Research.
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Vision and Delivery: Lessons from Labour’s Past
Looking back at my diaries from the first year following our 1997 Labour election victory, I recognise the enormous toll that stepping up to government takes – nothing can truly prepare you for it.
This government faces significant challenges: a dire economic inheritance, the global trade impacts of Trump’s tariffs and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, which are fuelling uncertainty. However, Portland polling shows that voters have extremely limited patience for politicians. Reform consistently leads the polls at around 30%, and their voters are desperate for change. Labour may think they have four years to show that change and, of course, given their large majority they do. But people are far less patient and less forgiving than in 1997. Eight out of ten of these Reform-leaning voters say that after one year, Labour has had enough time and people should already be seeing results. Meanwhile, 47% of all voters view Nigel Farage as the leader who most represents change.
So, the government is in a real fight against the forces of populism that are surging across democracies. The fact people are even talking of the prospect of Farage as Prime Minister underlines the extent of change in the public debate. And of course, while the Tories fight an existential battle, and Labour seeks to hold on to seats in the fabled Red Wall, Keir Starmer and his team also risk losing support to the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats.
Labour must be both ruthless and strategic in tackling these varied threats.
One lesson I learned in government is that every action must contribute to a coherent narrative. You need to paint a picture for the public - every press release, speech, visit, social media post and piece of communication is a brushstroke on the overall image you want to present to the country. And it must chime with the reality of people’s lives. Farage is selling a better yesterday. Labour needs to shape and sell a better tomorrow.
That is why, in its second year, Labour must relentlessly drive home a message of delivery. The public consistently demands action on living standards, the NHS and immigration. To win a second term, Labour must demonstrate its ability to deliver on these priorities - and make clear that populism puts all of that at risk.
But they must also be aware, as Joe Biden and Kamala Harris learnt to their cost, that delivery alone is not enough. You need a bold and confident national story, too. Farage will bleat from here until polling day that Britain is broken. Labour has to show, amid the multiple global crises and domestic challenges we face, that Britain’s best days lie ahead.
by Alastair Campbell, Senior Adviser and Former No.10 Director of Communications