Lucid Talk’s latest poll provides an interesting snapshot of where the political scores on the doors sit just over 460 days away from polling day. You will have heard the old chestnut, “polls are just a snapshot in time,” and whilst this is true, the most recent poll shows that the next Assembly election is shaping up to be a fascinating contest.
Race for First Minister
During 2021 and 2022, the debate was fundamentally about who would take the spot of First Minister. In this political season, there appears to be an almost settled will, fuelled by the polls, that unless Sinn Féin manages to shed a good deal of support and the DUP rebounds, Michelle O’Neill should be in line to win a second term as First Minister. However, the polls show the party has lost some support since 2022, putting a handful of its seats under pressure.
In fact, if this poll were actually repeated on Election Day, the combined DUP and Sinn Féin vote share would be down around 7%. The combined 43% vote share would be the lowest for the big two parties in more than 20 years. This will be a tell tale sign of voter support for the Executive in May 2027.
The Real Battle
The real emerging battle for the next Assembly election is not for first or second place, but for third. Four parties range from 11% to 13%. Alliance, TUV, UUP, and SDLP are all sitting at roughly the same level of support in the poll. What this means is that you will have an election with the SDLP and Alliance fighting for the same pool of voters, and conversely, the UUP and TUV will be doing the same. There are scenarios where a party could come third in votes but not in seats; that is where being transfer-friendly can help a party like Alliance but hurt the TUV.
A similar dynamic occurred in 2017, when the SDLP came 1% behind the UUP on first- preference votes but ended up with two more MLAs. In a more crowded field, we could see the same thing happening in 2027. Winning these key seats will determine the strength of both the Executive and the Official Opposition.
Trends to look out for in 2026
Polls throughout the year leading up to the 2022 Assembly election slightly underestimated DUP and Sinn Féin strength and had Alliance a little high. The SDLP and UUP trended down slightly as the election approached. These small shifts will be critical in shaping the narrative when the campaign officially starts in March next year.
If the UUP and SDLP can make inroads in the polls and if Alliance continues to trend down, then the narrative of a rebound for those two parties, with one of their rivals under pressure, will take hold for 2027. Conversely, if Alliance move up, the narrative will flip to Alliance holding onto their gains from 2022. Similarly, the TUV will be seen as a real threat to DUP and UUP seats if it can consistently stay above 10%.
If the Executive makes it to March 2027, Northern Ireland will have its first election in a decade without a collapse right before it. Chaos drove strong turnouts in 2017 and 2022. Will voters come out for stability next May?
by David McCann, Strategic Political Analyst at Brown O’Connor Public Affairs
