After Donald Trump's repeated social media attacks and tariff disputes with his closest neighbour, it’s unsurprising that Ottawa is increasingly looking across the Atlantic to strengthen trade and diplomatic ties. For Canada and the European Union, this is a welcome development as the EU explores closer partnerships beyond its borders. However, it also raises a question about how widely Europe is prepared to extend that welcome.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s invitation for Canada to become the EU’s first “associate member” signals significant political ambition. The proposed status remains undefined and should certainly not be confused with full membership. However, Brussels’ willingness to explore such a groundbreaking arrangement suggests that both sides recognise the value of a more resilient relationship capable of adapting to a less predictable international environment.
For Carney, this is closely connected to Canadian sovereignty. His response to Trump’s trade pressure has centred on Canada’s right to determine its own future, including who it trades with. With the US purchasing roughly 70% of Canadian exports, that freedom may come at a significant price. Europe cannot replace the American market overnight. Building alternative partnerships could, however, slowly increase Ottawa’s room for manoeuvre and strengthen Carney’s central argument, set out in his Davos speech, that middle-sized countries can better resist economic coercion by working together.
The economic case for a closer EU-Canada relationship extends beyond shared concerns about Washington. The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) already provides a foundation for closer commercial ties. Yet ten member states, including France, Italy and Poland, have still not ratified it, amid disputes over agricultural standards, environmental protections and investor rights. Canada’s energy resources and critical minerals could help Europe diversify supplies away from Russia and support its green transition, whilst European markets and investment offer opportunities for Canadian businesses. Turning that potential into reliable supply chains would require sustained investment and coordination, but both sides have ample reason to commit.
With Canada flirting with the idea of a "unique alliance", the UK may develop ambitions to follow their transatlantic cousins, not least given Andy Burnham’s departure from Keir Starmer’s previous ‘red lines’. Canadian minister François-Philippe Champagne’s suggestion that the UK and Canada should “team up” invites a more ambitious discussion about cooperation with Europe without reopening the Brexit debate wholesale. A Canadian arrangement would not automatically provide a British template, but it could nevertheless encourage London and Brussels to consider where greater flexibility serves their mutual interests. With Carney and Burnham meeting up recently at the new Hill Dickinson Stadium, perhaps it wasn't only their shared love of Everton Football Club which was being discussed.
A willingness on the part of the EU to explore new forms of association will attract attention elsewhere. Western Balkan countries have spent years pursuing accession, with European leaders now seeking ways to accelerate the process. Von der Leyen has backed Montenegro’s ambition to join by 2028. The Commission has also proposed reforms to prepare for enlargement, including less reliance on unanimity and stronger safeguards against democratic backsliding. North Macedonia’s Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski has criticised what he considers "artificial disputes" obstructing his country’s progress, despite what he describes as its continued commitment to European values. Full accession entails obligations that differ from any Canadian associate arrangement. Yet this contrast still poses a political question: can the enthusiasm for building new relationships be matched by equal attention to longstanding applicants?
For now, however, attention turns to the EU–Canada summit in Montreal on 29–30 October. A draft statement ahead of the meeting points to a digital trade agreement, a critical minerals deal allowing the European Investment Bank to finance Canadian projects, the joint purchase of 50 De Havilland water bombers by 2030 and talks on Canadian participation in Erasmus+. Whilst associate membership itself, however, still has no basis in the EU treaties, a successful summit later this month would beg the question ahead of the UK-EU summit just three weeks later of whether Brussels has the political imagination and determination to strengthen relationships with partners closer to home.