Labour’s recent by-election victories under Andy Burnham suggest the party can withstand challenges from both Reform and the Greens. But holding on to power at the next election will require more than winning on these two fronts.
Labour’s stunning victory in 2024 was built on a broad but shallow coalition, united more by frustration with the Conservatives than enthusiasm for Labour. Burnham’s challenge is to turn that reluctant support into something more durable, while defending the southern and suburban seats that helped deliver Labour’s majority and which the Conservatives are now determined to win back.
Three months into his premiership, Burnham’s early victories have bought him some much-needed political breathing space. But the contrasting electorates of Makerfield and Holborn and St Pancras illustrate the scale of the challenge ahead. Labour must find a way to appeal to very different voters without appearing to offer a different programme to each.
Two victories, but very different lessons
Makerfield provided the first test of Burnham’s ability to reconnect with Labour’s traditional voters.
Following Reform’s sweeping gains across Labour’s northern and Midlands heartlands in May, the constituency appeared fertile territory for Nigel Farage’s party. Its strong support for Brexit and the prominence of immigration among voters’ concerns suggested Labour would face a serious challenge.
Yet Labour secured more than half the vote, finishing 20 percentage points ahead of Reform. It was a striking contrast to the previous local elections, when Reform made substantial gains in the area.
Burnham’s personal popularity may explain the result. But how much of that appeal can transfer to Labour candidates elsewhere, particularly outside his northern heartlands? And how well will it withstand the pressures of government?
Holborn and St Pancras presented a different challenge. Labour retained Starmer’s former seat with a lead of more than 12 percentage points over Green leader Zack Polanski, offering some reassurance after a difficult period for the party in London.
The Greens took control of three London councils in May, while Labour’s third-place finish behind the Greens and Reform in Gorton and Denton showed its vulnerability to challenges from both sides.
But the Holborn result is not necessarily evidence of renewed enthusiasm for Labour. The Greens had faced controversy over their ‘Zionism is Racism’ policy, while Polanski’s personal polling had deteriorated. Labour’s victory may therefore reflect reservations about its opponents as much as renewed confidence in the Government.
Together, the victories show Labour can compete with both Reform and the Greens. What they cannot yet tell us is whether voters are returning to Labour for the long term, responding to Burnham’s personal appeal or simply giving his Government the benefit of the doubt.
One Coalition, Competing Priorities
The differences between Makerfield and Holborn and St Pancras help explain why holding Labour’s coalition together will be difficult.
Makerfield has an older, predominantly white population and voted heavily for Brexit. Immigration is a leading concern for 62% of voters, compared with just 29% in the younger, more ethnically diverse constituency of Holborn and St Pancras, where voters overwhelmingly backed Remain.
These differences create difficult political choices. A tougher approach to immigration might reassure voters considering Reform, but risk alienating Labour’s progressive urban supporters. Closer relations with Europe could appeal in Holborn and St Pancras, but may be harder to sell in places such as Makerfield.
Housing and public spending present similar tensions. Younger renters want more affordable homes and greater security, while older homeowners may place greater importance on pensions, social care and the impact of development on their communities.
These priorities are not necessarily incompatible. But reconciling them becomes harder when ministers face difficult decisions about spending and taxation. Promises that coexist comfortably during an election are harder to deliver when the Government must decide who benefits, who pays and who waits.
Burnham’s Third Battle: Middle England
Yet Labour’s electoral challenge extends well beyond Reform and the Greens.
The Conservatives are feeling bullish after a successful conference and are targeting the southern and suburban constituencies that played such an important role in Labour’s 2024 victory. Many of these seats were won on narrow margins, often by voters who wanted an end to Conservative government rather than a fundamental change in political direction.
Under Kemi Badenoch, the Conservatives are seeking to rebuild their traditional electoral base, with an emphasis on economic competence, enterprise, homeownership and rewarding work. Their pledges on inheritance tax and the £100,000 tax trap reflect an effort to reconnect with voters concerned about taxation and aspiration.
For Labour, the danger is that voters who backed the party in search of competent, stable government conclude that higher taxes have not delivered better public services or improved household finances.
This creates a particular challenge for Burnham. His political identity has been shaped by Greater Manchester, devolution and Labour’s northern heartlands. But Labour’s route to another majority also runs through southern England, where voters may have different priorities and expectations of government.
A strategy focused too heavily on winning back Reform voters risks overlooking those who switched from the Conservatives in 2024. Equally, a programme designed primarily to reassure southern professionals may struggle to rebuild Labour’s traditional support.
Burnham cannot afford to treat the South as an afterthought. Losing ground to the Conservatives could undermine gains made elsewhere.
Finding What Unites Labour’s Coalition
The answer is not simply to find a compromise between three different electorates, but to give them a common reason to support Labour.
More unites these voters than might first appear. Housing affordability matters to younger renters, but also to homeowners whose children cannot afford to move out. Better public services, higher living standards and greater economic security have an appeal that cuts across age, geography and political outlook.
Housing offers a particularly important test. Building more homes and improving rental security could appeal to younger progressive voters, while creating opportunities for homeownership could help retain families in southern marginals. But without investment in infrastructure and public services, new development risks alienating the communities Labour needs to keep onside.
Burnham’s experience in Greater Manchester could prove valuable. His emphasis on devolution and place-based growth offers a potential model for how national policy can deliver tangible local improvements. Translating that approach into a national programme, particularly with limited public resources, will be a much greater challenge.
However, economic delivery alone can’t resolve every political disagreement. On issues such as immigration and Europe, Burnham will need a consistent approach rather than shifting his position according to whichever electoral threat is most pressing.
The 10-year Plan for Britain, expected this autumn, will need to bring these competing priorities together into a compelling vision for the country’s future, giving voters a positive reason to back Labour, rather than simply a reason to reject its opponents.
The victories in Makerfield and Holborn and St Pancras suggest Labour can compete with Reform and the Greens. But defending the southern and suburban seats targeted by the Conservatives presents a third challenge, and one Burnham cannot afford to overlook.
Ultimately, Burnham does not need every voter to become instinctively Labour. He needs to convince enough of them that his Government understands their priorities and is delivering improvements worth protecting.
With growing speculation around an election, turning the reluctant support of 2024 into a more durable coalition will be the real test of his premiership.
by Alex Cutler