Rebecca Mason, associate, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
Holyrood’s predicted two-horse race could be upended as voters head to the polls in the highly anticipated Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election on Thursday.
Meanwhile, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage will re-enter the Scottish political paddock as he saddles up for a rare foray north of the border. Joined by deputy leader Richard Tice, Farage will deliver a speech in Aberdeen this morning. He is expected to call for net zero funding to be scrapped, before heading to South Lanarkshire to campaign alongside the party’s candidate, Ross Lambie.
With the SNP and Labour both treating Reform as their main rival in the constituency, Thursday’s vote will not only decide a new MSP for Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse following the death of the SNP’s Christina McKelvie, but reveal whether Farage has secured the “tartan bounce” he has been hoping for. A result here could signal that the ‘clown in a circus’ - as dubbed exclusively by Labour leader Anas Sarwar to The Herald - is here to stay, with a significant shift in wider voter sentiment ahead of Holyrood 2026.
At Westminster, Keir Starmer hopes his government’s 10-year strategic defence review lands well, as he sets out the UK’s long-term military spending priorities today. The review, initiated by Starmer last year, is expected to reaffirm his February commitment to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 and 3% by the next parliament.
This comes after the government announced on Sunday that it will spend £6 billion to replenish munitions during this Parliament, including £1.5 billion for six new bomb factories sustaining 1,000 jobs. The initiative reflects mounting pressure from allies, including U.S. President Donald Trump, for European nations to strengthen their military investment.
When asked whether the UK was exploring methods of nuclear weapons deployment, defence secretary John Healey declined to comment on the classified discussions but told the Financial Times that Britain must “prepare for war in order to secure the peace” (£) in response to escalating geopolitical threats.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
Scotland could achieve its 2030 child poverty target of reducing the rate to below 10% (£), a new report by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation has revealed, but doing so would require around £920 million annually in targeted benefits and significant investment to boost parental employment.
UK defence secretary John Healey has pledged to fund a £2.5 million grant for a specialist submarine welding centre in Glasgow (£) if the SNP continues to block funding over its policy against supporting munitions-related projects. It’s claimed that the SNP's stance has jeopardised a broader £11 million investment from Rolls-Royce, aimed at boosting Scottish shipbuilding, on the basis that it would “support the construction of naval vessels.”
A third of UK hospitality venues are losing money and could go out of businessfollowing the government’s £3.4 billion in tax rises in April, according to the industry. Six in ten operators have said they had already been forced to cut jobs and nearly two-thirds have reduced staff hours, with more than half cancelling investment plans.
Offshore Energies UK has urged the UK government to prioritise homegrown energy in its new industrial strategy, claiming a focus on domestic production could unlock £200 billion in investment, support 200,000 jobs, and add £150 billion in value to the economy, (£) while helping lower energy costs.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
A painful conflict between personal duty and political responsibility. John Swinney has revealed that, had the opportunity arisen just weeks earlier, he would have turned down the opportunity to become Scotland’s first minister (£) due to his wife Elizabeth Quigley’s declining health. In a candid and heartfelt interview with The Sunday Times, Swinney and Quigley reflect on their commitment to this country, and to one another.
“Farage can’t lose,” writes Euan McColm in The Scotsman, as Reform UK builds traction ahead of the Hamilton by-election in a country where Nigel Farage was once seen as ‘barely irrelevant’. McColm warns that Scotland’s traditional parties can no longer afford to dismiss Reform’s rising appeal, and unless they begin addressing voters’ concerns with sincerity rather than contempt, Farage’s influence will only continue to grow, no matter Thursday’s outcome.
From fast food to fashion, “buy now, pay later” is growing in popularity, but did you know this type of lending is unregulated in the UK? In a quick yet insightful clip, Financial Times retail banking and fintech reporter Akila Quinio breaks down how major players like Klarna and Clearpay are gearing up to face changes that will ensure they abide to the same rules as traditional banks.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
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Westminster
- Oral questions: Home Office
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UK: Defence spending review published
Tuesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Parliamentary Bureau Motions
- Topical Questions
- Ministerial Statement: A Just Transition for Aberdeen and the North East
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- Local Government, Housing and Planning Committee will consider the Housing (Scotland) Bill at Stage 2 (Day 7); take evidence on the National Planning Framework 4 Annual Review
- Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee will consider the negative instrument – Road Traffic (Permitted Parking Area and Special Parking Area) (Highland Council) Designation Amendment Order 2025; consider the Land Reform (Scotland) Bill at Stage 2 (Day 1)
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Westminster
- Treasury Committee – Oral evidence: Bank of England Monetary Policy Reports
- Science and Technology Committee – Oral evidence: Financing and Scaling UK Science and Technology: Innovation, Investment, Industry
Wednesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Portfolio Questions: Constitution, External Affairs and Culture, and Parliamentary Business: Justice and Home Affairs: Education and Skills
- Scottish Government Debate: Empowering Entrepreneurs and Innovators
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- Rural Affairs and Islands Committee will take evidence on the Natural Environment (Scotland) Bill at Stage 1
- Economy and Fair Work Committee will take evidence on the Community Wealth Building (Scotland) Bill at Stage 1
- Education, Children and Young People Committee will take evidence on the financial sustainability of Scotland’s universities
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Westminster
- Oral questions – Scotland
- Prime Minister’s Question Time
- Westminster Hall debate: Impact of changes to business rates relief on high street businesses
- Scottish Affairs Committee – Oral evidence: Problem drug use in Scotland follow up: Glasgow’s Safer Drug Consumption Facility
- Environmental Audit Committee – Oral evidence: Environmental sustainability and housing growth
- Energy Security and Net Zero Committee – Oral evidence: The cost of energy
- Europe: Britain and Germany to lead Ukraine Defence Contact Group meeting at NATO HQ in Brussels.
Thursday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- General Questions
- First Minister’s Questions
- Parliamentary Bureau Motions
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Scottish Government data
- Scotland’s Cladding Remediation Programme: ad-hoc update June 2025
- Scotland's cladding remediation estimates
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Westminster
- Oral questions – Cabinet Office
- Scotland: Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election. Result expected Friday
- Europe: Meeting of NATO defence ministers at NATO HQ in Brussels
Friday
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Consulting Scotland
- Future of the Scottish Landfill Communities Fund consultation closes