Aoife Hollywood, client manager, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
As the dust settles following the dramatic local elections south of the border, this week marks exactly one year until voters in Scotland head to the polls for the 2026 Scottish Parliamentary elections.
Reform UK sent shockwaves through the political landscape as it made significant breakthroughs last week, winning the Runcorn Westminster by-election, seizing the new Greater Lincolnshire mayoralty and gaining over 600 councillors.
Voters made it clear they’re frustrated with both Labour and the Conservatives. Now, the focus turns north: if Reform can shake up the map in England, could the party also find support north of the border? Nigel Farage is apparently planning to spend more time in Scotland in the coming months, with the June by-election for Hamilton, Larkhall, and Stonehouse just around the corner.
First Minister John Swinney will tomorrow unveil the SNP’s Programme for Government, four months earlier than usual, to show voters the party is focused on delivering in the run-up to the 2026 election.
Promising “meaningful solutions” on child poverty, NHS backlogs, and the cost of living, Swinney aims to reset the agenda.
Meanwhile, opposition leaders Anas Sarwar and Russell Findlay will deliver keynote speeches on Wednesday, each seeking to shape the narrative ahead of the 2026 election. With the political landscape shifting, these speeches will provide crucial insights into each party's strategies and priorities for what promises to be a fiercely contested campaign.
Elsewhere, the Vatican will become the global focus on Wednesday as 135 Catholic cardinals gather for a closely guarded conclave in the iconic Sistine Chapel. The newly chosen pope will face not only spiritual and doctrinal pressures but also significant financial and institutional challenges ahead.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
Scottish Retail Consortium Director David Lonsdale has urged First Minister John Swinney to prioritise economic stability over headline-grabbing policies in his Programme for Government. With Scotland’s retailers already grappling with weak sales, rising costs, and new UK-wide regulations, Lonsdale urges the First Minister to “do no harm” and avoid adding further strain through taxes or red tape. Writing in The Herald, he argues for a focus on growth and competitiveness, warning that without action on business rates and regulatory overload, Scottish retailers could fall behind their counterparts elsewhere in the UK.
Heineken is investing £4.5m in its Scottish pubs as part of a wider £40m UK plan expected to create 1,000 jobs. So far, it has spent £1.3m reopening four long-shuttered pubs across Scotland, with the latest round of funding set to create 150 more jobs through its Star Pubs division.
Glasgow City Council has been urged to reassess the economic impact of its proposed 5% visitor levy, which aims to raise £12.5m annually. The Federation of Small Businesses warns the city council against a one-size-fits-all approach and calls for a lower rate to protect small accommodation providers and avoid harming the hospitality sector.
West Scotland MSP Jamie Greene has joined the Scottish Liberal Democrats’ front bench as economy and finance spokesperson, after leaving the Scottish Conservatives earlier this year. The party said he will focus on economic growth in Inverclyde, North Ayrshire, and Arran, and lead on national financial matters.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
In the Financial Times (£), Robert Shrimsley paints a bleak picture for the Conservatives, once proud to call themselves “the world’s most successful political party.” Haemorrhaging support and talent post-Brexit, the party now face a surging Reform UK and a populist rival in Nigel Farage who doesn’t need to win, just to look like the real opposition. Shrimsley warns the Tory party is running out of time, identity, and voters.
In The Herald, Brian Taylor discusses Reform UK’s victory in the Runcorn by-election, signalling growing voter dissatisfaction with both Labour and the Conservatives. Taylor raises the question of whether this discontent will be temporary or lead to lasting change, especially as it impacts Scotland’s upcoming elections.
In The Observer, Simon Tisdall reflects on the stark contrast between remembering past atrocities and ignoring ongoing ones. While victims of Nazi horrors are memorialised, he argues that today's atrocities, like the airstrikes in Yemen or mass rapes in the DRC, go largely unnoticed. Tisdall argues that global disillusionment, exacerbated by rising populism and nationalism, is fuelling, what he describes as indifference.
Shifting the dial - recent research
With just one year to go until the 2026 Holyrood election, the SNP maintains a strong advantage over other parties in voter preferences for both the Scottish and UK parliaments, according to a new poll conducted by Survation for the Diffley Partnership.
When it comes to preferences for the Scottish Parliament, the SNP holds a lead with 36% of voters supporting them in the constituency ballot. Their backing on the regional list drops slightly to 28%, still ahead of Labour, which secures 22% in both voting categories. The Scottish Conservatives attract 13% in constituency voting and rise to 16% on the list. Meanwhile, Reform UK shows notable momentum, garnering support from 14% of voters in the constituency race and 12% in the regional list vote.
According to projections by the Diffley Partnership for The Herald, these voting patterns would see the SNP secure 57 seats in the 2026 Holyrood election, seven fewer than they won in 2021. Labour is expected to make modest gains, increasing their presence to 25 MSPs, while the Conservatives face a sharp decline, dropping to 17 seats, a loss of 14. Reform UK is forecast to enter Holyrood with 12 seats, alongside 10 for the Greens and 8 for the Liberal Democrats.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
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UK: Early May Bank Holiday. Financial markets closed
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UK: Members of the armed forces will march from Parliament Square,
kicking off a week of 80th VE Day anniversary events, including a recitation of Winston Churchill’s victory speech as Big Ben strikes midday, and a military fly-past over central London
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Microsoft closes Skype, the pioneering video-calling service it acquired for $8.5bn 14 years ago
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China: Labor Day holiday continues. Financial markets closed
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Japan: Children’s Day. Financial markets closed
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South Korea: Birth of the Buddha. Financial markets closed
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Met Ball in New York
Tuesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
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First Minister’s statement: Programme for Government 2025-26
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Scottish Government debate: Programme for Government 2025-26
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- Local Government, Housing and Planning Committee will consider the Housing (Scotland) Bill at Stage 2
- Finance and Public Administration Committee will take evidence on the Scottish budget process in practice
- Health, Social Care and Sport Committee to take evidence on the Tobacco and Vapes Bill (UK Parliament legislation) and consider a draft report on young people’s participation in sport and physical activity
- Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee will take evidence from Zero Waste Scotland on its first year as a public body and its future priorities
- Equalities, Human Rights and Civil Justice Committee will take evidence on the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights
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Scottish Government data
- Police Officer Quarterly Strength Statistics Scotland
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Westminster
- Oral questions: Health and social care
- General debate: 80th anniversary of victory in Europe and victory over Japan
- Westminster Hall debate: Energy resilience; Poverty in Glasgow North East constituency
- House of Lords: Statement, UK energy grid resilience; Legislation, Renter’s Rights Bill – committee stage 4
- UK: April international reserves data
- US: March goods and services trade figures
- Germany: Friedrich Merz set to be voted as the country’s new chancellor by members of the Bundestag
Wednesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
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Portfolio questions: Rural affairs, land reform and islands: Health and social care
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Scottish Government debate: Programme for Government: Building the best future for Scotland
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Members’ business Roz McCall: Mental Health Awareness Week 2025
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
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Education, Children and Young People Committee will take evidence on the Tertiary Education and Training (Funding and Governance) (Scotland) Bill at Stage 1
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Economy and Fair Work Committee will take evidence on skills delivery
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Rural Affairs and Islands Committee will take evidence on Natural Environment (Scotland) Bill
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Public Audit Committee will take evidence on additional support for learning
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Westminster
- Oral questions: Women and equalities
- Prime Minister’s Question Time
- Westminster Hall debate: Government support for employment in the automotive manufacturing sector
- Scottish Affairs Committee will consider evidence on problem drug use in Scotland follow-up: Glasgow’s safer drug consumption facility
- EU: March retail trade figures
- US: Federal Open Market Committee interest rate announcement
- Russia: 25th anniversary of Vladimir Putin first being made president
- Vatican City: conclave to elect the next pope begins
- Charlotte Street Partners event: Holyrood 2026 - One Year to Go
Thursday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- General questions
- First Minister’s questions
- Members’ Business Michael Marra: Wraparound Care for Children with Additional Support Needs
- Portfolio questions: Social justice
- Ministerial statement: Relationships and behaviour in schools
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- Education, Children and Young People Committee will consider the Education (Scotland) Bill at stage 2
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Standards, Procedures and Public Appointments Committee will take evidence on the Scottish Parliament (Recall and Removal of Members) Bill at stage 1
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Constitution, Europe, External Affairs and Culture Committee will take evidence on the UEFA European Championship (Scotland) Bill at stage 1
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Social Justice and Social Security Committee will take evidence on financial considerations when leaving an abusive relationship
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Westminster
- Oral questions: Environment, food and rural affairs
- Business questions to the leader of the House
- UK: Bank of England interest rate announcement and meeting minutes published
- Halifax House Price Index
Friday
- Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey gives the keynote address at the Reykjavik economic conference 2025, hosted by Northwestern University and the Central Bank of Iceland
- Canada: April labour market figures
- China: April trade figures
- EU: Europe Day, marking the 1950 declaration by the Luxembourg-born French statesman Robert Schuman proposing a continent united in solidarity, considered the first step towards the EU being formed
- Italy: 108th annual Giro d’Italia men’s cycling race starts
Saturday
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UK: Republic, the group campaigning to abolish the British monarchy, will stage a rally in London’s Trafalgar Square with artists, activist speakers and a 15ft fully mobile Tyrannosaurus rex called Chuck the Rex
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US: FT Weekend Festival in Washington
Sunday
- UK: Republic, the group campaigning to abolish the British monarchy, will stage a rally in London’s Trafalgar Square with artists, activist speakers and a 15ft fully mobile Tyrannosaurus rex called Chuck the Rex
- US: FT Weekend Festival in Washington