John Cumming, senior client manager, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
With roughly five months to go until the Holyrood election, Scotland’s politicians aren’t cruising into the festive wind-down period quite yet.
This morning, first minister John Swinney will deliver a speech at the Science Centre in Glasgow, seeking to set out how independence could improve living standards and help ensure that Scotland’s wealth is felt in people’s pockets. His speech is expected to focus on energy policy, amid ongoing pressures on household finances driven by high energy bills. Swinney is expected to resurrect a previous party slogan applied to North Sea oil to headline his argument, asserting that “It’s Scotland’s energy”. The speech is yet another example of Swinney putting independence front and centre in his election campaign, in an attempt to convince SNP voters to elect him as first minister for the first time.
However, the first minister’s remarks come after the UK government announced measures in its budget to cut energy bills for all households by an average of £150 per year. With this key intervention still fresh in voters' minds, Swinney will have to convince them that independence can deliver a meaningful improvement in personal finances that could not be achieved as part of the United Kingdom.
Businesses will also be listening to the first minister’s remarks with interest to understand how efforts to grow the economy and create certainty for investors will be advanced alongside work to address the cost-of-living crisis.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
- The Courier has published a piece this morning on a new strategy to attract more tourists to Perthshire. The initiative is being led by the owner of Scone Palace, William Murray, Viscount Stormont, alongside Emma Williams of the Tay and Earn Trust. The new destination marketing organisation, This is Perthshire, will operate on a membership subscription model, with the aim of creating a distinct brand for the region.
- The Business Desk has published a piece this morning on a new UK Government deal which will see The Fraunhofer Centre for Applied Photonics (CAP), a network of independent research organisations founded in Glasgow in 2012, receive £8m over the next four years. The body supports the development of lasers and optical systems for use in sectors including space, security and defence, healthcare, renewable energy and communications. The latest UK Government funding will be in addition to the £1.3m the network receives annually from the Scottish Government and Scottish Enterprise.
- Following the confirmation of World Cup fixtures on Saturday, health secretary Neil Gray said he would be working with local authorities to ensure licensing laws allow fans to watch Scotland’s late night matches. The Scottish Beer and Pub Association has said that each match could give pubs a £3 million boost, and that temporary licensing statements for the whole tournament would give fans a chance to enjoy the games in a “safe, regulated environment, and give our pubs a chance to benefit from this incredible occasion.”
- The Scotsman is reporting this morning on fresh calls for a public summit on the future of Edinburgh’s Princes Street. It comes after Stephen Jardine, in his capacity as president of the city’s heritage watchdog, the Cockburn Association, used his most recent column in the paper to share a recent experience of walking down the iconic boulevard where he believes, “Every block reverberates with what once was”.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
The Herald’s head of print, Alan Simpson, wrote a piece for the paper on Scotland’s rural depopulation crisis (£), arguing that financial incentives are key to incentivising people to live in these communities. He cites successful schemes in Norway and Canada where interventions such as writing off student debt and providing “golden handshake” payments to young professionals in priority sectors such as healthcare, social care, engineering and trades have reversed the trend of people leaving these areas to find opportunities elsewhere. While these proposals could make a difference, Simpson also highlights ongoing problems such as limited job opportunities, poor transport and infrastructure, and long-standing political neglect which also drive population decline.
Daniel Davies, managing director at Frontline Analysts, wrote a piece for the Financial Times (£) over the weekend, exploring the concept that a “captain should go down with the ship”, arguing that while it is rooted in expectations of accountability, it is often misapplied to modern organisations. His assessment comes following the resignation of Richard Hughes as chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility after the OBR accidentally leaked details of the budget. Davies argues that such decisions, while honourable, can often act as “accountability sinks” that deflect deeper scrutiny of systemic failures. While he accepts that the public might need an individual to blame, he concludes that leaders should stay to manage consequences and improve systems, rather than resign quickly for symbolic effect.
In this clip from Sky News, the broadcaster’s deputy political editor Sam Coates explores speculation about a potential pact between the Conservatives and Reform UK ahead of the next general election. Nigel Farage has rejected claims made in the Financial Times that he has floated the possibility of a deal or merger with the Conservatives in conversations with party donors. Senior Conservatives such as Robert Jenrick have spoken about their openness to a deal as part of an attempt to ‘unite the right’.
Shifting the dial - recent research
A survey of over 500 SMEs, entrepreneurs and business owners in Scotland has found that while a majority (55%) expect growth over the next year, their confidence has reduced slightly when compared to findings from 2024.
The second annual Business Baseline survey, conducted by the Improvement Service on behalf of Business Gateway and partners, also found that businesses in the education, training and HR sectors were the most optimistic, with 68% predicting growth, while sectors such as construction and food and drink reported lower growth expectations than last year.
Rising costs were cited as the biggest challenge for 63% of respondents. Political uncertainty and regulatory changes are also rising up the list of key concerns for businesses, with the number of respondents expressing concern over these factors rising from 25% in 2024, to 40% in the 2025 survey.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
- Ukraine: Prime minister Keir Starmer to host President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Downing Street
- SNP: First minister John Swinney to deliver a speech at the Science Centre in Glasgow
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Westminster
- Energy secretary Ed Miliband to appear before the Environmental Audit Committee to discuss COP30
- Pope Leo to pray at the Spanish Steps in Rome, continuing the tradition of celebrating the Solemnity of the Immaculate Conception
- Music: 45th anniversary of the murder of John Lennon in New York
Tuesday
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Westminster:
- Treasury questions
- Second reading of the Railway Bill
- Foreign Office permanent secretary Olly Robbins to attend both the Foreign Affairs Committee and the International Development Committee
- Members of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee appear before the Treasury Committee, discussing interest rates
- Investment minister Jason Stockwood appears before the Business and Trade Committee
- Trade minister Chris Bryant appears before the International Agreements Committee, discussing the trade deal with India
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Holyrood:
- Scottish Government debate on support for veterans and the armed forces community in Scotland
- MSPs debate a motion on legislative consent on the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill
- Sport: 33rd Southeast Asian Games begin in Bangkok
- Art: Turner Prize ceremony in Bradford
Wednesday
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Westminster:
- PMQs
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves to appear before the Treasury Committee
- Lords’ Public Services Committee to take evidence from Scottish Labour MP and health minister Zubir Ahmed
- Peers in the House of Lords debate amendments to the planning and employment rights bills
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Holyrood:
- Deputy first minister Kate Forbes and finance secretary Shona Robison to take questions in the chamber
- Scottish Conservative debates on social security and transport
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- SNP MSP and deputy leader, Keith Brown, to lead a debate celebrating the Scotland men’s team qualifying for the World Cup
- Sweden: Nobel Prize ceremony
- UN Human Rights Day
- Australia: ban on under-16s using social media comes into force
Thursday
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Holyrood:
- FMQs
- Energy secretary Gillian Martin and transport secretary Fiona Hyslop to take questions in the chamber
- Ministerial statement on progressing a Just Transition at Grangemouth
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Westminster:
- Business and trade questions in the Commons
- Inquiry: Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey appears at the Covid-19 Inquiry
- Switzerland: Olympic Summit held in Lausanne
Friday
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Westminster:
- Lords to debate the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill
Saturday
- Hollywood: Dick Van Dyke celebrates his 100th birthday
Sunday
- Hanukkah, the Jewish Festival of Lights, begins