Aoife Hollywood, senior client manager, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
After a weekend dominated by Holyrood election results and wider UK political fallout, attention now turns from campaigning to governing, and the practical realities of opening a new parliamentary session in a more fragmented Scottish parliament.
Thursday’s election returned another SNP-led parliament, but with a changed political balance: a weakened SNP still the largest party, a disappointed Labour Party short of expectations, a diminished Conservative group, and gains for Reform UK and the Scottish Greens that will reshape Holyrood from day one.
Holyrood will today welcome 64 new MSPs for induction, the largest intake since 1999. Behind the scenes, staff have spent months preparing, including a “buddy” system covering procedures, staffing and office set-up. This week, practicalities will trump policy.
Key milestones in the coming week include:
- Negotiations over chamber seating and offices
- MSPs’ swearing in
- Election of a new Presiding Officer
- Formation of the Parliamentary Bureau (responsible for proposing Holyrood’s business programme each week)
- Early committee allocations by party
- Preparations for next week’s First Minister vote
An unprecedented tie for second place will prompt some new calculations, however. With Labour and Reform UK level, the expectation is that FMQs responsibilities may be shared or alternated, though no agreement has been reached.
At Westminster, attention has shifted rapidly from local election results to leadership. Sir Keir Starmer faces a critical week after Labour’s losses across England, Wales and Scotland intensified pressure on his premiership, with around 40 MPs now reportedly calling for him to quit or name an exit date.
MP Josh Simons says Starmer has “lost the nation”, while Catherine West MP has warned ministers must move against him by today or she will attempt to trigger a leadership contest herself. Unite general secretary Sharon Graham has also called for an “ordered transition”.
Angela Rayner has also intervened, arguing that Labour needs a “change in direction” and signalling backing for Andy Burnham as a potential future alternative. This highlights growing pressure for a shift in course rather than simple messaging adjustments. Meanwhile, allies of Wes Streeting say he’s prepared to go for leadership, but that he will not be the first to launch a challenge.
Starmer is expected to use his speech today on government and economic renewal as an attempt to reset his premiership and contain mounting pressure, with Gordon Brown and Harriet Harman brought in over the weekend to steady authority ahead of what could become a defining week for his leadership.
Global attention is also turning to a closely watched meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing, seen as a key moment for US–China relations as both leaders look to manage tensions on trade, security and economic policy. It takes place alongside US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s visit to Japan, where discussions with senior officials will focus on currency policy and concerns over the weak yen.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
Leading business groups have called on the incoming Scottish government to make economic growth its “defining mission” following last week’s Holyrood election. With the SNP set to remain in power under John Swinney, organisations including CBI Scotland and ICAS urged ministers to work more closely with businesses and provide a clearer long-term economic strategy. Industry leaders also highlighted the need for business rates reform, planning changes and investment in skills as firms continue to face rising costs and economic uncertainty.
Women-led start-ups now make up 54 per cent of new businesses in Scotland but receive just 2.8 per cent of equity investment, according to entrepreneur Kylie Reid. Writing about her experience hosting business events across Scotland, the founder of egg said female founders continue to face barriers including limited networking opportunities, childcare pressures and a lack of support. Reid argued that greater investment in women-focused business networks could help unlock growth and improve access to funding.
More than 160,000 jobs are expected to be lost across the UK this year as rising energy costs, slowing economic growth and disruption linked to the Iran war continue to impact businesses, according to EY Item Club. Manufacturing, construction and retail are forecast to face the greatest pressure, with hospitality and accommodation also likely to suffer as household spending declines. The report said public sector employment should remain comparatively stable, while Cambridge is forecast to be the only major UK city to record modest jobs growth.
OpinioNation - columns of interest from the Scottish election
Writing in The Sunday Times, Iain Macwhirter argues that while the Scottish Greens briefly dominated the headlines on election night, it is Reform UK’s breakthrough under Malcolm Offord that could ultimately prove more consequential, reshaping the balance of opposition in Holyrood. He suggests this shift will complicate the SNP government’s ability to pass budgets and maintain control, with unpredictable cross-party dynamics likely to define the new parliament.
A fifth consecutive SNP victory under John Swinney looks impressive on paper, but Mark Diffley suggests it conceals a more complicated reality beneath the headline result. He suggests that while independence still frames the party’s long-term direction, the real pressures facing the First Minister will come from voters prioritising the cost of living, the NHS, and public services over constitutional politics.
ITV News Border Political Editor Kieran Andrews gives insight into the main party campaigns in the 2026 Holyrood election, from SNP strategy under John Swinney to Labour’s struggles under Anas Sarwar and the wider shifts across Scottish politics. He highlights how competing narratives and misjudged momentum shaped a volatile and unpredictable campaign.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
In The Guardian, Simon Tisdall argues that US president Donald Trump’s Beijing summit with Xi Jinping exposes a shifting global balance of power, with China now holding the stronger hand. He suggests Trump arrives weakened by foreign policy failures and may trade concessions on Taiwan for Chinese help on Iran, framing the talks as evidence of declining US influence and China’s growing geopolitical leverage.
Despite talk of a new multi-party era in British politics, Robert Shrimsley argues the reality may be more familiar than it seems. Shrimsley suggests that the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system will ultimately force consolidation back into two broad political blocs, as smaller parties are squeezed out or absorbed. Rather than a permanent end to the Conservative–Labour duopoly, he frames the current realignment as a transitional phase that could still resolve into familiar patterns of two dominant forces.
In The Sunday Times, Matthew Syed responds to calls for a Conservative–Reform UK “Unite the Right” deal, arguing it would quickly unravel due to deep differences over tax, spending, and welfare despite overlap on immigration. He warns Kemi Badenoch against short-term electoral bargaining with Nigel Farage, urging instead a clearer, long-term Conservative vision.
Shifting the dial - participation vs power
While the SNP emerged as the clear winner of Scotland’s election with 58 seats, the underlying vote totals present a more fragmented picture of political support.
Taking each party’s strongest result across the constituency or regional ballot, the SNP secured around 877,000 votes. Labour followed on 440,000, with Reform UK on 383,000, the Scottish Greens on 322,000, the Conservatives on 272,000 and the Liberal Democrats on 261,000.
Taken against Scotland’s roughly 4.26 million registered voters, this means the SNP were backed by about one in five eligible voters. Every other party attracted a significantly smaller share of the electorate.
The figures point to a broader issue of political engagement. While the parliamentary result delivers a clear winner, it is built on relatively low levels of participation when measured against the size of the electorate.
That stands in contrast to moments such as the 2014 independence referendum, when more than 3.6 million people voted out of an electorate of just under 4.3 million, demonstrating that Scottish voters can and do engage in far greater numbers when the stakes feel more immediate.
Adapted from commentary published in The Scotsman
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Note: The House of Commons and House of Lords are in prorogation. They will next sit on 13 May 2026.
Monday
- Sir Keir Starmer gives reset speech following local elections
- EU foreign ministers gather to discuss the Middle East and Ukraine, alongside the Canadian foreign minister
- US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent begins a three-day visit, which will include meetings with his Japanese counterpart Satsuki Katayama and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi
Tuesday
- Public Health Scotland, health and homelessness briefing
- Cannes Film Festival opens
- BRC Retail Sales Monitor
- EU defence ministers meet
Wednesday
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Westminster
- State Opening of Parliament
- Debate on the Address
- Andy Burnham scheduled to speak at BIBA conference
Thursday
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Westminster
- Debate of King’s Speech
- Scottish Affairs Committee: GB energy and the net zero transition
- House of Lords: Debate on King’s Speech, specifically economic growth, trade and EU partnership
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Scottish government data
- Business Insights and Conditions Survey (Wave 155)
- U.K. Q1 GDP stats
- President Donald Trump begins a two-day visit to China
- Israel and Lebanon are set to hold talks at the U.S. State Department
Friday
- European Central Bank economic bulletin
Saturday
- Marches from Tommy Robinson’s Unite the Kingdom and the Palestine Solidarity Campaign in London
- Cabinet Ministers Peter Kyle, Liz Kendall and Wes Streeting set to address Progress conference
- Austria: Vienna hosts the 70th Eurovision Song Contest final
Sunday
- Israel-Lebanon ceasefire due to expire