Finlay Whiteford, associate, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
Finance secretary Shona Robison is set to deliver the Scottish Government’s draft 2026/27 Budget tomorrow, one that has been kept a fair deal quieter than its Westminster equivalent last month.
While some have suggested it could be a ‘giveaway’ Budget (£) in the run-up to May’s election, SNP sources suggested that policy interventions will be more targeted measures which will boost economic growth while addressing government priorities.
These could include investment into childcare provision, social care funding to prevent delayed discharge from hospitals, and measures to tackle business rate increases from revaluation.
Specific policies in these areas are yet to be trailed or confirmed, though social justice secretary Shirley-Anne Sommerville indicated that those with the ‘broadest shoulders’ will continue to pay more tax than in other parts of the UK.
If one thing is certain, though, it’s that this Budget looks set to pass. Anas Sarwar announced that his party’s MSPs will abstain from the vote on Tuesday, taking the wind from the sails of the Greens and Lib Dems.
Elsewhere, eyes will be looking across the Atlantic to see what Donald Trump’s next move will be, after US Navy Special Forces used Wick John O’Groats Airport to seize a Russian ‘shadow fleet’ oil tanker last Wednesday.
This week will also be a key one for the energy industry, with decisions expected on Wednesday for the UK government’s Allocation Round Seven (AR7) which determines funding for offshore wind projects.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
The Scottish Chambers of Commerce (SCC) has joined voices across the retail, leisure and hospitality sectors calling on the Scottish Government to scrap the proposed business rates revaluations (£) expected in April. Its director, Dr Liz Cameron, said viable businesses across every sector would be pushed “dangerously close to the brink” of closure if the Scottish Government does not act in Tuesday’s Budget.
The Chambers also published its latest quarterly economic survey alongside the Fraser of Allander Institute this morning, showing that more Scottish firms expect turnover to fall (33%) than to rise (27%) in the first quarter of 2026. The SCC described confidence levels as “worryingly low”, calling on the Scottish Government to “put Scotland’s businesses back on the front foot”.
Amid demand from consumers for the whisky market to become more sustainable, The Guardian reports that Stirling Distillery is now trialling eco-friendly aluminium bottles instead of virgin glass. The innovation lowers packaging weights by up to 90% and has already been trialled in gins and vodkas. However, concerns remain over metal degradation its suitability for a high-end consumer market.
A public inquiry is to be held into a Fred Olsen Renewables plan for a large renewable energy park near Duns in southeast Scotland. Scottish Borders Council had voted against the development, which would contain onshore wind, solar and battery storage elements, while Fred Olsen promised £7 million in community benefit funding if the project goes ahead.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
In The Herald this morning, economics professor Graeme Roy urges fellow economists to have a little humility (£) in their predictions for the year ahead. Looking beyond fluctuations in data points, he says, policymakers should focus on long-term trends internationally and respond with sensible national policy which prioritises education and innovation.
After the stage one passage of the Building Safety Levy in the Scottish Parliament last week, Alex Massie scolds the government in the Sunday Times Scotland (£) for a “dim understanding” of the trade-offs between taxation and housing supply. Lamenting policies such as affordable housing quotas and rent controls, Massie argues that parliamentarians have contradicted their good intentions with sub-par legislative actions.
Writing in The Telegraph this weekend, Michael Simmons accused John Swinney ofusing geopolitical drama as a distraction from domestic policy failures (£) on health and transport. Swinney had said he wanted to “have sight” of future military operations involving Scotland, though Simmons dismisses the prospect as delusions of grandeur aiming to “[keep] alive the fantasy of an independent Scotland in the global game”.
“There is a dividend for clarity and honesty in politics, even when the policy is unpopular.” For The Observer, Phillip Collins writes that Labour needs to act on much-needed welfare reforms if it is to shake off its image as the “something-for-nothing party”. Arguing that the failed attempt at cuts last year was roughly in the right direction, Collins argues Labour has frozen itself into inaction and needs to put good policy above party politics.
Shifting the dial - recent research
With the Budget just ahead of us, the political scene is rife with talk of the “broadest shoulders” in society doing their bit. But do people feel their shoulders have actually broadened in the past year?
Recent UK polling from YouGov shows that just nine per cent of British households feel their financial situation has improved at all over the past year, with just 12% predicting any positive change in 2026.
Those who voted for Labour, the Liberal Democrats or the Greens in 2024 were most likely to put the cost of living as their highest political priority, while the issue ranked second for Reform UK voters and fourth among Conservatives.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
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Westminster
- Oral questions to the secretary of state for housing, communities and local government
Tuesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Scottish Budget 2026-27
- Stage one debate: Scottish Crofting and Land Court Bill
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee: The Committee will consider a draft report on the Ecocide (Scotland) Bill at stage one.
- Finance and Public Administration Committee: The Committee will take evidence on the UK context of its budget scrutiny 2026-27 and on the economic impact of Scotland’s national performing companies
- Health, Social Care and Sport Committee: The Committee will take evidence on the draft climate change plan.
- Local Government, Housing and Planning Committee: The Committee will take evidence on the draft climate change plan.
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Westminster
- Oral questions to the secretary of state for health and social care
- House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee will take evidence on the UK’s fiscal framework from former OBR chair Richard Hughes
- Senior minister in Greenland government to visit London following Donald Trump's annexation threats
- UK: British Retail Consortium December Retail Sales Monitor
- Results: Persimmon trading update
Wednesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Portfolio Questions: Deputy First Minister, Economy and Gaelic; Finance and Local Government
- Ministerial statement: A9 Dualling
- Stage one debate: Children (Care, Care Experience and Services Planning) (Scotland) Bill
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- Economy and Fair Work Committee: The Committee will consider the Community Wealth Building (Scotland) Bill at stage two, and take evidence on the draft climate change plan.
- Rural Affairs and Islands Committee: The Committee will take evidence on the draft climate change plan.
- Criminal Justice Committee: The Committee will consider a revised draft report of the Prostitution (Offences and Support) (Scotland) Bill
- Public Audit Committee: The Committee will take evidence as part of the 2024/25 audit of Historic Environment Scotland.
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Westminster
- Prime Minister’s Question Time
- Oral questions to the secretary of state for Scotland
- Scottish Affairs Committee: The Committee will take evidence on defence skills and jobs in Scotland.
- Results: Vistry trading update
Thursday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- First Minister’s Questions
- Portfolio Questions: Climate Action and Energy; Transport
- Stage three debate: UEFA European Championship (Scotland) Bill
- Scottish Government Debate: Scottish Rural and Islands Youth Parliament
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Westminster
- Oral questions to the secretary of state for culture, media and sport
- UK: November 2025 GDP estimate, construction output in Great Britain and production index
- Results: BlackRock (Q4), Taylor Wimpey trading update
Saturday
- British Medical Association resident doctors in Scotland conclude a 96-hour strike after voting in favour of industrial action in a dispute over pay.