Milly Hean, associate, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
After a bumper summer sporting weekend, the competition continues this week in the guise of the Labour Party leadership contest, although the outcome seems like a slam dunk.
Challenger Andy Burnham has already secured nominations from 322 MPs, putting him on course to become the UK’s next prime minister on 20 July.
But before then, Burnham must make it through a Parliamentary Labour Party hustings today and the remaining days before nominations from MPs and Labour Party affiliates close on 15 and 16 July, respectively. If no one else is nominated, a special conference will announce Burnham as Labour’s new leader this Friday.
Ahead of that, on Tuesday, chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver her third Mansion House speech on the stability she has brought to the British economy, alongside new Treasury policies to support small businesses and protect consumers. As the joint face of Starmerism, it is generally expected that this will be her last Mansion House speech despite her recent efforts to remain in post in a Burnham government.
Westminster is looking at a busy week before it rises for recess until 1 September. Today, the UK government is expected to set out legislative changes allowing deportation of Rochdale grooming gang leader Shabir Ahmed, while culture secretary Lisa Nandy will be quizzed on the BBC's charter renewal. New rules for overseas political donations will be introduced on 14 July, and the Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey and foreign secretary Yvette Cooper will be questioned by select committees of MPs.
This week also marks the debut of the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) Great Britain edition – headlined by Nigel Farage and hosted by Liz Truss in London from Thursday – as well as the last matches of the World Cup, which culminates in Sunday’s final in New Jersey.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
Almost 4,000 fewer small businesses in Scotland are receiving 100 per cent business rates relief after the Scottish Government’s revaluation of non-domestic rates, according to new figures. As a result, the Federation of Small Businesses has called on the Scottish Government to restore the protection of the Small Business Bonus Scheme to more small businesses and welcomes its recent announcement of a system review.
The Scottish National Investment Bank is tightening its risk exposure by investing in a broader range of companies with a clear market advantage and a demonstrated growth record. The Bank’s new investment strategy and business plan for the coming year signal a new phase of maturity, outlining plans for sector-agnostic investment – including in defence-related activities – and a larger role in stimulating the housing market.
Ageing Scottish ferries could soon be sent to the Mediterranean for the end of their lives instead of being decommissioned. Three of CalMac’s veteran ships – the Isle of Arran, Isle of Mull and Isle of Lewis – are due to retire from service over the next year but may attract interest from buyers in the Mediterranean, where conditions are more forgiving and vessels are mainly used during the summer.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
In The Guardian, Gaby Hinscliff charts Andy Burnham's swift break from the Starmer era, noting his surprise apology over the government's Gaza policy as an early signal that the incoming PM will listen more closely to Labour's grassroots than his predecessor did. She then sets this against a fraying transatlantic backdrop: Trump's Nato-summit threats over Greenland, Spain and a resumed Iran campaign. Her verdict: Burnham inherits an unenviable balancing act - managing Trump, Gaza and Ukraine with delicate precision - after “never here Keir” bought time for allies abroad but left Britain's own defence-spending case unmade at home.
Scotland’s support system for struggling young people is a jigsaw of services that don’t fit together, leaving many to fall between the cracks, argues Erica Young of Citizens Advice Scotland in The Herald (£). Drawing on Alan Milburn’s recent work on NEET youth, she argues that poverty, poor mental health, isolation and practical barriers like rural transport gaps compound into cycles that are hard to escape without sustained, multi-faceted support. She proposes that strengthening “villages” of trusted local services is key to turning safety nets into springboards for Scotland’s young people.
In The Times (£), Robert Colvile challenges the well-worn narrative of a US-Europe growth gap, arguing Britain's sluggish business data may be the real culprit. He posits Britain could be riding the same AI-driven "solopreneur" boom seen in America, only an invisible one. Roughly three million sole traders and self-employed workers fall outside official registers, and the Labour Force Survey used to estimate them has been unreliable since the pandemic. Colvile points to a 70% rise in self-assessment tax receipts and a striking divergence between stagnant Companies House registrations and surging UK Stripe sign-ups, a sign, he argues, that entrepreneurial activity is booming in the blind spot of official records.
Shifting the dial - recent research
In a hypothetical head-to-head, the British public would prefer Count Binface to win the Clacton by-election than Nigel Farage, according to recent polling by Ipsos.
When asked about the Clacton contest, one in three British adults (33%) would prefer Count Binface to win, while 21% prefer Nigel Farage and 32% choose neither. 13% don’t know.
This comes as nearly three-quarters (74%) state that the parliamentary standards commissioner should be investigating whether the Reform UK leader broke parliamentary rules, with a similar proportion (73%) saying that the investigation should continue even if Farage wins the by-election.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
- Labour Party leadership hustings for Labour MPs
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At Westminster:
- House of Commons: Debate from Dr Ellie Chowns MP on embodied carbon in buildings
- House of Commons: Oral questions for the home secretary
- The Culture, Media and Sport Committee takes evidence from the culture secretary on the BBC charter renewal
- Grantham Institute (Imperial), the Met Office and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine report on estimated deaths from spring heatwave
- Patrick Spencer MP goes on trial over alleged Groucho Club sex assault
- EU foreign ministers meet to discuss Ukraine and the Middle East
- Two years ago: Trump assassination attempt
Tuesday
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At Westminster:
- House of Commons: Steel Industry (Nationalisation) Bill: Consideration of Lords amendments
- House of Commons: Oral questions for the secretary of state for health and social care
- The Foreign Affairs Committee takes evidence from the foreign secretary on the work of the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office
- The Treasury Committee takes evidence from the governor of the Bank of England and members of its Financial Policy Committee on the Bank’s financial stability
- The Built Environment Committee takes evidence as part of the New Towns: Brick and Mortar inquiry
- The Industry and Regulators Committee takes evidence from General Sir Richard Barrons and Lord Robertson of Port Ellen on relations between the government and the defence industry
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Scottish Government data:
- Migration statistics, mid-2025
- FIFA World Cup semi-final: France v Spain
- Results from: Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase
Wednesday
- Labour Party leadership nominations from Labour MPs close and nominations from affiliate organisations open
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At Westminster:
- House of Commons: Oral questions for the secretary of state for Scotland
- Conservative MP John Lamont presents his Energy and Digital Infrastructure (Planning) Bill
- OECD publishes its economic survey of the UK
- UK-India Free Trade Agreement takes effect
- Results from BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, BNY Mellon and Barratt Redrow
- FIFA World Cup semi-final: Argentina v England
- 20 years ago: Twitter launched
Thursday
- Labour Party leadership nominations from affiliate organisations close
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At Westminster:
- House of Commons rises for recess, returning on 1 September
- The Public Accounts Committee takes evidence on the affordability of the Defence Investment Plan
- UK GDP monthly estimate
- CPAC UK begins, with Nigel Farage, Liz Truss, Suella Braverman and Matt Goodwin among speakers
- Captain of seized Russian shadow fleet tanker appears in UK court
- Results from Ocado, Netflix, Frasers Group and SSE
- The Open Championship begins at Royal Birkdale
Friday
- Labour Party leadership special conference expected to confirm Andy Burnham as the UK’s next prime minister
- The World AI Conference begins in Shanghai
- BBC Proms begins
- Queen Camilla turns 79
Saturday
- FIFA World Cup third place playoff
- Pulp and Scritti Politti play Rough Trade 50th anniversary celebration gigs
Sunday
- FIFA World Cup final
- Final round of The Open Championship