Finlay Whiteford, associate, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
John Swinney is to meet his Welsh and Northern Irish counterparts in Cardiff this morning, to sign a joint declaration which includes a demand for powers to hold independence referendums (£).
The three first ministers will meet just days after Andy Burnham described the status of a future independence referendum in Scotland as “exactly the same” as that of a Northern Ireland border poll.
If referendum talk wasn’t enough for you, Scottish Labour picks between its two leadership candidates this week. Ballots close on Thursday, with the new leader – either Michael Marra or Joe Fagan - declared at a special event on Saturday.
Reform UK dominated the weekend’s headlines after a double-header of donations, totalling £72 million, was made to the party by two overseas cryptocurrency billionaires. These now tie as the largest individual political donations in British history.
Secretary of state for housing, communities and local government, Angela Rayner, indicated that the party could be forced to return the funds. The representation of the people bill, currently moving through Westminster, has provisions to place some curbs on donations, including a £100,000 limit on overseas donations and, as it stands, would apply retrospectively from 25 March 2026. Nevertheless, Reform’s treasury spokesman Robert Jenrick told Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg the donations are “entirely in line with the law”.
Nearly two weeks after Reform’s conference, the UK parliament will go into recess on Wednesday to allow other parties to hold theirs. The Liberal Democrats are next, and will gather in Brighton for a four-day conference from Saturday.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
Economics professor Graeme Roy writes in The Herald this morning that Glasgow shouldn’t simply aim to imitate Manchester’s successful approach to devolution (£). Instead, the city should take a bottom-up approach that identifies barriers to its economic growth, and makes policy asks which go beyond another City Deal cheque from the UK Treasury.
A first-of-its-kind study has attempted to estimate the monetary value of health benefits from Scotland’s ‘blue spaces’. The Worth of Water report, carried out by the University of Aberdeen and Public Health Scotland, claims that around 1.1 million people spent 105 million hours around rivers, lochs and coastlines in Scotland within the past year, with public health savings valued at £105.2 million from exposure to these environments, primarily through improved mental wellbeing.
The UK government has delayed an order for “up to 12” nuclear-powered attack submarines until at least 2028 (£), The Telegraph reports. A commitment to order the fleet had been made by the Starmer government, but defence secretary Wes Streeting has now written to his Conservative counterpart to confirm that the final design and number of vessels will not be confirmed for more than a year.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
Former deputy first minister Kate Forbes made her debut as a columnist for The Times (£) this weekend. Writing on the need for optimism in Scotland, she argues that “we are not victims of circumstance” and urges reforms to tax burdens on middle earners, a reduction of public sector inefficiency, and an increase to domestic energy production.
Alex Massie also accuses the prime minister of “people-pleasing puffery” (£) in his column this morning. Describing Burnham’s “vibe-based politics” as “a leading indicator of sloppiness”, Massie concludes that niceties won’t suffice for very long for the man in charge of the UK’s future.
Amid recent warnings of global peril due to AI development, Ronald Hepburn writes in The Scotsman that AI technology is “psychopathic” (£) and should be independently assessed before any public use. He adds that Scotland could lead the world on AI assurances in schools – an area he calls for the government to act on with urgency.
Shifting the dial - recent research
After OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Anthropic’s Dario Amodei and Elon Musk all agreed that AI development should be regulated and slowed down due to security risks, what should the consequences be when models become too advanced?
YouGov polling released last month showed that UK adults believe that the companies which build and deploy AI models should be held responsible for damaging or rogue behaviour, with 64% supporting legal liability for their parent companies.
Less than one in four (24%) of those polled supported a voluntary code of conduct or self-regulation of the AI industry as a solution to AI containment issues.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
- Scottish first minister John Swinney, Welsh first minister Rhun ap Iorwerth, Northern Ireland's first minister Michelle O’Neill and Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald will hold a press conference on self-determination in Cardiff
Tuesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- First Minister’s Questions (backbench members)
- Scottish Government debate: preventing violence against women for an Equally Safe Scotland
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- The Europe, External Affairs and Culture Committee will hear an update on the Independent Review of Creative Scotland
- The Economy, Tourism and Energy Committee will take evidence on data centres and energy use in Scotland
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Scottish government data
- Public sector and Scottish Government workforce information, Q2 2026
- Cladding remediation progress update, Q2 2026
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Westminster
- Government response to the Treasury Committee report into student loans
Wednesday
-
In the Holyrood chamber
- Portfolio questions: justice; health and care
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- The Social Justice, Housing and Local Government Committee will take evidence from Scottish Government ministers and officials on their priorities for the new session
- The Finance and Public Administration Committee will take evidence on the affordability of tax and spending plans
- The Transport Committee will take evidence from various rail bodies on Scotland’s rail services
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Scottish Government data
- UK Innovation Survey 2025 – results for Scotland published
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Westminster
- UK Parliament enters recess, until 12 October
- August Consumer Price Index data
- Barratt Redrow releases full-year results
Thursday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- First Minister’s Questions (party leaders)
- Scottish Government debate on the harms of health misinformation
- Ministerial statement: Ferguson Marine investment and future business
- Ballot closes in the Scottish Labour leadership contest
- Bank of England interest rate decision announcement
- Galliford Try releases full-year results
Friday
- August retail sales data released
- The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max will go on sale
Saturday
- Scottish Labour leadership announcement
- Liberal Democrats’ UK conference begins in Brighton