Will Torness, client manager, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
An ace for some, a bogey man for others, US president Donald Trump is returning to the UK just seven weeks after he last teed off at one of his Scottish golf courses.
Trump’s unprecedented second state visit, which starts tomorrow, comes at a moment of intense turmoil on both sides of the pond, with brewing tension over the assassination of conservative influencer Charlie Kirk in the US. Here, an increasingly enflamed debate over immigration rages on, after more than 100,000 protesters, led by Tommy Robinson, descended on Westminster on Saturday.
But prime minister Keir Starmer has more than Tommy and Donny to contend with this week, as growing turmoil has put his premiership under serious threat for the first time. Information released over the weekend suggests Starmer was warned about Peter Mandelson’s relationship with Jeffrey Epstein before the prime minister appointed Lord Mandelson as ambassador to the US.
With Starmer’s judgement under scrutiny, a growing number of Labour MPs are now questioning – mainly privately, for now – whether he can lead the party into the next general election. One unnamed senior minister described Starmer’s leadership inThe Sunday Times as “terminal”, and another quoted in the Financial Times reckons the PM has until the Scottish and Welsh elections in May to turn things around.
The manner in which Sir Keir ultimately sacked Lord Mandelson may also give rise to some awkwardness when he meets with Trump on Thursday at Chequers. Questions about the president’s own dealings with Epstein will inevitably follow him here, at a time when the UK is trying to maintain a delicate balance in managing trade relations and two major global conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.
Coinciding with the visit, the US and UK are expected to announce new partnerships on nuclear, which would allow for small nuclear reactors to be fast-tracked for approval, and on tech, including a major investment by OpenAI and Nvidia for a new AI data centre in the northeast of England. Scotland’s first minister John Swinney has raised the prospect that a new whisky deal could very well be on the cards too, with some in the industry cautiously hopeful for movement on that front.
Later in the week, attention will return to the Bank of England as it makes a key interest rate announcement on Thursday following the publication of the latest inflation data, which is expected to show a further rise from the 3.8% uptick in July.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
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As employment rights return for debate in the House of Commons this week, Daily Business reports on new warnings by the CBI that firms are considering cuts to hiring plans, with 78% believing the bill will hit growth, investment, jobs and bonuses.
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The Herald (£) reports that in an effort to boost ties with the EU, two former Scottish MPs are urging ministers to reinstate ferry services between Scotland and mainland Europe, arguing that the move will be a “transformative opportunity” for the country.
- Following an unprecedented image of a Scottish first minister in the Oval Office last week, Daniel Sanderson and John Boothman of The Times (£)analyse the series of events that made it all happen, starting with an unexpectedly friendly meeting between John Swinney and Eric Trump six months ago at Bute House. Could it ultimately lay the foundation of a new deal for Scotch whisky?
OpinioNation - columns of interest
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With Scotland’s colleges facing financial precarity and the prospect of further cuts, this comment piece in The Scotsman (£) argues that perpetual underfunding by the Scottish Government is failing to match industry needs – particularly in engineering, construction and health care – despite colleges playing a critical part in retraining and upskilling workers.
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Paul Sheerin of Scottish Engineering writes in The Herald (£) that the prevailing energy transition debate of more oil extraction versus an immediate flip to renewables is unnecessarily binary, setting out the case that the Scottish and UK governments should look to expanding nuclear capabilities as part of more diverse mix.
- John Burn-Murdoch writes in the Financial Times (£) that pension reforms have become a “politically untouchable” subject in both the UK and France, and that politicians and voters share responsibility for fuelling unrealistic expectations as a growing proportion of the population ages closer to retirement.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
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Westminster
- House of Commons: Home Office oral questions; consideration of Lords amendments to the Employment Rights Bill
- House of Lords: Planning and Infrastructure Bill committee stage
- Business and Trade Sub-Committee on Economic Security, Arms and Export Controls: Oral evidence on arms exports to Israel
- Public Accounts Committee: Oral evidence on BBC accounts and trust statement 2024-25
- Environmental Audit Committee: Oral evidence on climate change mitigation and adaptation progress
- Rightmove house price index
Tuesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Victims, Witnesses, and Justice Reform (Scotland) Bill: Stage 3 proceedings
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- Finance and Public Administration Committee: Pre-budget scrutiny 2026-27
- Local Government, Housing and Planning Committee: Evidence on the Climate Change (Local Development Plan) (Repeals) (Scotland) Order 2025; pre-budget scrutiny 2026-27; consider draft letter to Secretary for Housing on building safety and maintenance
- Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee: Consider the Vehicle Emissions Trading Scheme (Amendment) Order 2025; consider draft report on the supplementary legislative consent memorandum for the Planning and Infrastructure Bill (UK Parliament legislation)
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Scottish Government Data
- Labour market trends, September 2025
- Public sector employment, Q2 2025
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Westminster
- House of Commons: Justice oral questions; Ten Minute Rule Motion on the Child Poverty Strategy (Removal of Two Child Limit); Sentencing Bill second reading
- House of Lords: Oral questions on the government’s assessment of July growth figures
- General Committee: Debate on the Pension Schemes Bill
- Business and Trade Committee: Oral evidence on small business strategy
- President Trump arrives in the UK for his second state visit
- September Labour market figures
Wednesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Portfolio questions: Constitution, External Affairs and Culture
- Leases (Automatic Continuation etc.) (Scotland) Bill: Stage 1 debate
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- Public Audit Committee: Evidence on flooding in communities
- Economy and Fair Work Committee: Pre-budget scrutiny 2026-27
- Rural Affairs and Islands Committee: Consider draft report for the Natural Environment (Scotland) Bill
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Scottish Government Data
- UK house price index Scotland, July 2025
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Westminster
- House of Commons in recess until 13 October
- House of Lords: Planning and Infrastructure Bill committee stage
- Financial Services Regulation Committee: Oral evidence on the growth of private markets in the UK following reforms introduced after 2008
- International Relations and Defence Committee: Oral evidence on the UK’s future relationship with the US
- King Charles hosts President Trump for state dinner
- “Trump Not Welcome” protest in London
- UK inflation data
- US interest rate announcement
Thursday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- First Minister’s Questions
- Portfolio questions: Education and Skills
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Westminster
- House of Lords: Oral questions on simplifying rail fares for passengers
- Prime Minister Keir Starmer to host President Trump at Chequers
- UK interest rate announcement
- London Fashion Week begins
Friday
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Westminster
- House of Lords: Second reading of the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill
- UK public finances data