Will Torness, client manager, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
The old saying goes: “when America sneezes, the world catches a cold”, and Donald Trump is proving that adage in his own way again as the escalating war in the Middle East threatens further disruption to the global economy.
This week, the war has put cost of living back at the top the political agenda, as leaders in the UK grapple with rising oil costs and the knock-on impacts on energy prices along with other sectors of the economy impacted by disruptions to international shipping in the Gulf region.
Energy secretary Ed Miliband sought to calm worries on the Sunday circuit, saying the UK government will “stand by people in this crisis” and suggesting that this could include interventions on both energy bills and fuel duty. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is also due to announce support for households that use heating oil on Tuesday.
Following his SNP conference address in Edinburgh this weekend, first minister John Swinney said the crisis required even more urgent action, appearing on the BBC Scotland Sunday Show to accuse UK government ministers of “twiddling their thumbs” while energy costs spike.
The situation also threatens what was expected to be the first of potentially several interest rate cuts in 2026 by the Bank of England. Ahead of its next decision on Thursday, that prospect is looking much less likely as the oil price surge threatens to catalyse a new spike in inflation.
At Holyrood, a long-awaited and consequential vote is set for the assisted dying bill on Tuesday. MSPs will consider the legislation and the 175 amendments which were added in the past week, following a rare Friday sitting to allow for further debate. The bill’s sponsor, Liam McArthur MSP, said it was now “bulletproof” with necessary safeguards, but it remains unclear what its likelihood of passing is. The Herald reports it could come down to just three votes.
With about seven weeks until the Holyrood election, Thursday will mark the end of Scotland’s party conference season, as Reform UK leader Nigel Farage returns north of the border where he is expected to introduce his party’s full lineup of parliamentary candidates at its conference in Bishopton.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
- Glasgow City Council leader Susan Aitken is calling for more local powers to crack down and enforce care of the city’s heritage buildings, following last week’s devastating fire on Union Street. According to the BBC, Aitken said the ability to take ownership away from neglectful landlords or enforce regulations was “beyond the power of the council”.
- Seven years overdue and millions over budget, Scotland’s ferry saga continues with new problems taking the MV Glen Sannox out of commission for multi-million-pound repairs to its propellors. In The Herald (£), Alan Simpson writes that the latest issue has put new scrutiny on Ferguson Marine and reflects deeper failures in the replacement and management of Scotland’s ferry fleet.
- Scotland’s role as a global leader in robotics will take centre stage this week as Edinburgh hosts one of the largest robotics conferences. The Scotsman (£) reports that more than 800 robotic technologies will feature at the Human Robot Interaction Conference at the Edinburgh International Conference Centre on Tuesday, where the public will have a chance to interact with robots that are aiming to solve challenges in hospitals, at home, and in the workplace.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
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As new oil shocks threaten to raise prices for UK businesses and households, Martin Wolf of the Financial Times (£) writes that the country’s clean energy ambitions are falling short due to not electrifying quickly or cleanly enough. Despite progress on the renewable energy transition, he argues that continued reliance on fossil fuels – particularly in transport and heating – demonstrates there’s still a significant gap to close.
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As the UK government eyes reforms to move more of its nearly £2 trillion in pension fund assets to “productive investment” in the UK, Paul Johnson writes in The Sunday Times (£) that the ambition to look domestically is understandable but it could undermine a duty to maximise savers’ returns through significant government intervention.
- Headline-grabbing numbers hyped by politicians sound impressive and signal success, but just how well are these figures being scrutinised? In The Guardian, Jonathan Portes points to recent government claims about billions in UK AI investment – which have come into question – to argue that inflated figures often mask their true economic impacts for short political gains.
Shifting the dial - recent research
Even before the US-Israeli war on Iran, the British public’s perceptions about long-term inflation have been sceptical. According to the Bank of England’s lates quarterly Inflation Attitudes Survey in February, the median expectation for inflation in the next five years is 3.7%.
That’s higher than even the high inflationary period in February 2022, following the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when the median expectation was 3.3%.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
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Westminster
- House of Commons: Oral questions on defence
- House of Lords: Report stage (day 1) of Pension Schemes Bill
- First Delegated Legislation Committee: Debate on the draft Non-Domestic Rating (Rates Retention and Levy and Safety Net: Miscellaneous Amendments) Regulations 2026
- Public Accounts Committee: Oral evidence on regulating for growth
- Prime minister Keir Starmer to unveil first steps of UK energy response to the Middle East conflict
- Canadian prime minister Mark Carney to visit the UK to meet with Keir Starmer
- Work and pensions secretary Pat McFadden to unveil new plans to get young people back into work
- Tech secretary Liz Kendall to speak at UK Tech Week
Tuesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Stage 3 proceedings: Building Safety Levy (Scotland) Bill
- Stage 3 proceedings: Assisted Dying for Terminally Ill Adults (Scotland) Bill
- Stage 3 proceedings: Non-surgical Procedures and Functions Medical Reviewers (Scotland) Bill
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee: Evidence on the Marine Licensing (Miscellaneous Amendment) (Scotland) Order 2026
- Delegated Powers and Lawa Reform Committee: Consideration of Non-Domestic Rates (Miscellaneous Amendment) (Scotland) Regulations 2026
- Local Government, Housing and Planning Committee: Consideration of Non-Domestic Rates (Miscellaneous Amendment) (Scotland) Regulations 2026
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Scottish Government data
- Local Authority Housing Income and Expenditure, Housing Revenue Account Statistics 2024-25 actuals and 2025-26 estimates
- Scotland’s Cladding Remediation Programme monthly management information
- Inflation adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland for Q4 2025
- Westminster
- Prime Minister’s Questions
- House of Commons: Oral questions on science, innovation and technology
- Scottish Affairs Committee: Oral evidence on defence skills and jobs
- Work and Pensions Committee: Oral evidence on transition to state pension age
- International Relations and Defence Committee: Oral evidence on the UK’s future relationship with the US
Wednesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Portfolio questions: Deputy first minister responsibilities; economy and Gaelic, finance and local government
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Scottish Government data
- Inflation adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland for Q4 2025
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Westminster
- Prime Minister’s Questions
- House of Commons: Oral questions on science, innovation and technology
- Scottish Affairs Committee: Oral evidence on defence skills and jobs
- Work and Pensions Committee: Oral evidence on transition to state pension age
- International Relations and Defence Committee: Oral evidence on the UK’s future relationship with the US
Thursday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- First Minister’s Questions
- General Questions
- Portfolio questions: Climate action, energy and transport
- Stage 3 proceedings: Visitor Levy (Amendment) (Scotland) Bill
- Stage 3 proceedings: Crofting and Scottish Land Court Bill
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Scottish Government data
- Labour Market Trends for March 2026
- Scottish Government Workforce Information for Q4 2025
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Westminster
- House of Commons: Oral questions on environment, food and rural affairs; General debate on progress in tackling climate change
- House of Lords: Oral questions on technological assistance for flood detection and prevention; Oral questions on resilience of rail infrastructure against future storms and floods; Report stage (day 2) of the Pension Schemes Bill
- Reform UK Scotland conference
- Bank of England to make UK interest rate decision
- End of Ramadan (Eid al-Fitr)
Friday
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Westminster
- House of Lords: Committee stage (day 12) of the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill
- UK public sector finances for February to be announced
- Spring equinox