Sophie Taylor, senior associate, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
The World Economic Forum kicks off today and attendee Donald Trump is guaranteed to be the centre of attention after brandishing his favourite bargaining chip over the weekend.
The US president announced a 10% tariff on goods from countries opposing his acquisition of Greenland, taking effect on 1 February before rising to 25% on 1 June.
First minister John Swinney – who had hopes of a friendlier deal for Scotch whisky exports – criticised the development, and while on a call with Trump, prime minister Keir Starmer told him that “applying tariffs on allies for pursuing the collective security of Nato allies is wrong”.
The prime minister is now due to give an emergency speech at Downing Street today.
But what does all this Greenland business tell us about Scotland? Dr Kirsty Hughes, former senior official in the European Commission, has warned that an independent Scotland would be vulnerable (£) in the current world order, as its Nato membership relies on it being part of the UK and it could be attractive to Trump.
Looking to the east, the UK government’s delayed verdict on the proposed Chinese “super-embassy” in London is due by tomorrow. The decision, which is laden with national security concerns, is expected to be approved in convenient timing for Starmer’s planned trip to China later this month.
We will also be on alert for more defections to Reform UK this week, following shadow parliamentary secretary for foreign affairs, Andrew Rosindell’s announcement last night. Let’s see if the party can secure defections from other parties or if Tory 2.0 is looking more and more likely. Farage will be holding a press conference on Tuesday where a widely trailed Labour defection could be announced.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
Trump’s new 10% tariff could double the £20-million-a-month losses the whisky industry is already experiencing (£) after the tariffs he imposed last year. The Scotch Whisky Association has recorded more than 1,000 job losses in the last year owing to a combination of tariffs and a global downturn in demand.
On Wednesday, the Scottish Games Network will present its “national action plan” to the Scottish Government (£), aimed at growing the sector fivefold, adding £1 billion annually to Scotland’s economy and creating 5,000 jobs by 2030. Brian Baglow, CEO of the Scottish Games Network, says that the sector is well placed to become a “golden thread” of Scotland’s digital economy.
Hydrogen power will find it difficult to compete with other energy sources unless there is significant investment in getting it to market, a Heriot-Watt University study has found. The findings show that while hydrogen production, storage and fuel cell technologies are advancing rapidly, hydrogen distribution infrastructure is developing at half the speed.
More than 40 community councils and other organisations from across the Borders, Dumfries and Galloway, East Lothian and South Lanarkshire have come together to fight the Scottish Government's position on renewable energy developments. During a convention at Jedburgh town hall on Saturday, it was agreed that a unified statement for the South of Scotland will be drawn up, aiming to pause all major planning applications.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
In The Sunday Times, Philip Rodney argues that we treat politics and public discourse as if they are derby matches (£), saying: “The footballisation of debate has become the enemy of reason”. Rodney notes that politics, unlike tribunal football support, is not about winning at all costs - productive debate should involve listening to the other side and finding solutions, even if it means conceding ground.
Instead of positioning themselves as a less extreme version of Reform UK, the Conservative Party needs to offer a genuine, forward-looking alternative. The editorial board at the Financial Times highlights the gap that exists for a centre-right political force, arguing that Kemi Badenoch’s quick response to Robert Jenrick’s defection to Reform last week creates an opening to steer the party back to the centre-right ground on which it has previously succeeded.
Paul Sheerin, chief executive of Scottish Engineering, highlights the importance of supporting defence companies in Scotland (£) - despite some loud opposition voices - in The Herald. Sheerin argues that recent criticisms harm Scottish SMEs supporting UK and western defences, as well as other key sectors like energy or medical devices, which undermines Scottish jobs, investment and opportunities.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
- Sir Keir Starmer to give emergency speech at Dowing Street following conversation with Donald Trump
- King Charles’ reception to mark the Scotland Investment Forum at the Palace of Holyroodhouse in Edinburgh
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Westminster
- Lords, urgent question repeat: The government’s policy on mandatory digital ID
- Davos: World Economic Forum Annual Conference begins, continuing until Friday
- US: Martin Luther King Day
- Reports: UK Rightmove House Price Index; IMF World Economic Outlook update
Tuesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Stage 3 Proceedings: Tertiary Education and Training (Funding and Governance) (Scotland) Bill
- Members’ Business: Liam McArthur: Future Farming Investment Scheme
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- The Health, Social Care and Sport Committee and the Local Government, Housing and Planning Committee will take evidence on the Climate Change Plan
- The Finance and Public Administration Committee and the Local Government, Housing and Planning Committee will take evidence on Budget Scrutiny 2026/27
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Scottish Government data
- Scotland’s Cladding Remediation Programme monthly management information, December 2025
- Labour Market Trends, January 2026
- The Prince and Princess of Wales to visit Stirling and Falkirk to shine a spotlight on unique Scottish heritage traditions
- US: One year since Donald Trump began his second term as US president
- Europe: European Parliament debates Greenland, Iran protests and the situation in Venezuela
- Davos: Chancellor Rachel Reeves due to talk at a panel event at the World Economic Forum
- UK: Reform UK press conference expected with potential Labour defection
- Reports: EU Q3 GDP estimate updated; UK January labour market statistics
Wednesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Portfolio Questions: Rural Affairs, Land Reform and Islands; Health and Social Care
- Finance and Public Administration Committee Debate: Scottish Budget 2026/27
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- The Economy and Fair Work Committee, the Rural Affairs and Islands Committee and the Education, Children and Young People Committee will take evidence on the Scottish Government’s Budget 2026/27
- The Public Audit Committee will take evidence on improving the care experience: Delivering The Promise, and on delayed discharges/community health and social care: Performance 2025
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Westminster
- Commons, Prime Minister’s Question Time
- Commons, Westminster Hall Debate: The UK wine industry
- Lords vote on cross-party amendment to bar under-16s from accessing social media platforms
- Scottish Affairs Committee, oral evidence: The future of Scotland’s high streets
- Energy Security and Net Zero Committee, oral evidence: The cost of energy
- Davos: Trump speaking at World Economic Forum
- Belgium: The NATO Military Committee meets in Brussels, continuing until Thursday
- Reports: UK inflation figures
Thursday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Stage 1 Debate: Wellbeing and Sustainable Development (Scotland) Bill
- Stage 1 Debate: Digital Assets (Scotland) Bill
- Portfolio Questions: Social Justice and Housing
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Westminster
- Commons, oral questions: Cabinet Office
- Select Committee Statement: Fourth Special Report of the Energy Security and Net Zero Committee, Tackling the energy cost crisis: Government Response
- UK: ONS data on UK borrowing and public sector finance
- US: Deal for TikTok to close, allowing the Chinese company to operate its business in America
- US: Withdrawal from WHO takes effect
- US: Oscar nominations announced
Friday
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Westminster
- Lords, legislation: Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill – committee stage (day 7)
- UK: ONS retail sales data
- TV: The Traitors final will air
Sunday
- Burns Night