Will Torness, senior client manager, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
Election day looms close, political scandal in Westminster grows thicker, and tensions in the UK’s special relationship with the US are all shaping a consequential week ahead.
It will be a pivotal couple of days for Keir Starmer as he fights for political survival. The prime minister's former chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, will address the Foreign Affairs Committee on Tuesday, as MPs scrutinise No. 10’s decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as US ambassador. Former FCDO chief Philip Barton will also testify on the issue and will be quizzed on whether civil servants were pressured to wave Mandelson’s appointment through.
Starmer’s eroding public standing could hardly come at a worse time for Labour, with the 7 May elections now imminent. However, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar maintained an optimistic tone in a late-week interview with The Guardian, saying that the election is still ‘all to play for’, while continuing to further distance himself from the prime minister.
Though the SNP remains on course to remain Scotland’s largest party in Holyrood, polling expert Sir John Curtice suggests that all parties’ support remains fragile, with aggregate polling indicating substantial uncertainty in the election’s waning days. Curtis notes the results of a recent Ipsos poll showing that 42% of people who’ve declared their voting intention say they might also change their mind.
In Glasgow today, first minister John Swinney will unveil his party’s plans for the first 100 days in government – focused on health, energy and the cost of living – should the SNP hold control of Holyrood.
And in the United States, King Charles and Queen Camilla arrive in Washington for a four-day state visit hosted by president Trump to mark the 250th anniversary of America’s founding. But it will be far from all celebratory, and the King will be threading a delicate diplomatic needle amid Trump’s recent barbs against the UK on the issues of Iran, the Chagos Islands, and now sovereignty over the Falkland Islands, which have strained UK-US relations.
If that weren’t enough, Saturday night’s security breach involving a gunman, which led to Trump’s evacuation from the annual White House Correspondents’ Dinner, has heightened security concerns during the royal visit. The trip will continue mostly as planned, with some slight adjustments to account for additional security.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
-
Investors will hold a critical vote on the future of Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust amid a prolonged governance fight with New York hedge fund Saba Capital. Daily Business reports that the vote will decide whether investors will back the current board and its company strategy or Saba, which wants to install three new nominees.
-
The Times (£) reports that higher oil prices resulting from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East are expected to lead to a sharp rise in first-quarter profits for BP, with analysts forecasting underlying profits to double to $2.7 billion. The windfall could help BP reduce debts, leading to a stronger financial backdrop for new CEO Meg O’Neill.
- After 163 years in business, furniture and joinery firm Alexander Oastler Ltd has collapsed, leading to 23 job losses in the Dundee area. According to The Herald (£), liquidators pointed to challenging trading conditions commonly felt across the industry which have been “exacerbated by rising input costs and lower levels of housebuilding activity”.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
-
Despite the significant contribution of heritage tourism to Scotland’s economy, the nation’s valuable historic assets may be at risk amid persistent underfunding. Dr Simon Gilmour of the Society of Antiquaries of Scotland writes in The Scotsman (£) that while the results of underfunding are already visible, the inevitable result of further funding gaps will lead to a squandered economic opportunity from the closure or delayed repair of historic landmarks.
-
Might the AI-driven “jobpocalypse” be more nuanced than it initially appears? John Burn-Murdoch of the Financial Times (£) suggests that the question of whether AI can perform a task is only part of the picture when it comes to the impact on knowledge economy jobs. He writes that other factors that shape job growth also need to be considered, with historical examples offering a useful guide.
- It’s not just social media feeds driving higher levels of anxiety, but potentially our everyday messaging habits too. Devi Sridhar writes in The Guardian that even the most basic forms of digital communication – and the pressure to respond or anticipate replies – are triggering measurable stress responses in our brains.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
-
Westminster
- House of Commons: Oral questions on work and pensions
- House of Lords: Consideration of Commons amendments to the Pension Schemes Bill
- Second Delegated Legislation Committee: Debate on the draft Warm Home Discount (Scotland) Regulations 2026
- Energy Security and Net Zero Committee: Oral evidence on revisiting the nuclear roadmap
- Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy: Oral evidence from Lord George Robertson and Fiona Hill on defence and resilience
- King Charles III begins state visit to the US
- EY to release its Economic Outlook report for the UK
Tuesday
-
Westminster
- House of Commons: Oral questions for the Treasury
- Business and Trade Committee: Oral evidence on Industrial Strategy
- Morgan McSweeney to appear before the Foreign Affairs Committee
- King Charles III to attend White House state dinner with president Trump
- British Retail Consortium to release its latest Shop Price IndexScottish Government data
Wednesday
-
Scottish Government data
- Labour market insights for April 2026
- Consumer sentiment indicator for Q1 2026
- GDP monthly estimate February 2026
- GDP quarterly national accounts for Scotland Q4 2025
-
Westminster
- Prime Minister’s Questions
- House of Commons: Oral questions on women and equalities
- Transport Committee: Oral evidence on supercharging the EV transition
- US Federal Reserve to make interest rate decision
Thursday
-
Scottish Government data
- Non-domestic rates revaluation
- Business Insights and Conditions Survey
-
Consulting Scotland
- Consultation closing: Accelerating home-building in Scotland
-
Westminster
- House of Commons: Oral questions on business and trade
- Bank of England to make interest rate decision
- European Central Bank to make interest rate decision
Friday
- House of Commons in recess until 5 May
- Nationwide to release its April House Price Index
- May Day