Sophie Taylor, senior associate, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
Keir Starmer is in Liverpool for his party’s annual conference facing dire opinion poll ratings, speculation over his leadership, an MSP suspension north of the border and the looming cloud that is Reform UK.
Amid this dreich backdrop, Scottish leader Anas Sarwar called yesterday for the party to stop letting the opposition “set the political weather” (£). Both Sarwar and Starmer have been overtly critical of Nigel Farage and his party at conference – the former describing him as a “pathetic and poisonous little man” and the latterbranding Reform an “enemy” with “racist” policy and a “grubby” leader.
Defence secretary John Healey will use his conference speech to confirm that the UK government will fund a specialist welding facility (£) by Rolls-Royce and the Malin Group at the Scottish Marine Technology Park in Clydebank. This comes after Scottish Enterprise was unable to provide a grant because the centre planned on manufacturing submarines, and the SNP government had a long-standing ban on supporting companies involved with munitions.
Starmer’s keynote address comes tomorrow, where his vision of “patriotic renewal” will take centre stage, before the conference wraps up on Wednesday with the party’s deputy leadership hustings.
But not to worry – there’s more where that came from. The Conservatives and the Greens will assemble for their conferences later in the week.
In Scotland, it's a big day for housing tomorrow as the Housing Bill reaches its final decision stage in parliament and the Scottish Government’s quarterly housing statistics are published. The weekend saw a new report argue bold, sweeping shifts in housing policy are needed to tackle Scotland’s housing crisis.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
- The Scottish Government is granting more than £8 million across four energy projects in the North East to support the transition to clean energy careers. The aim of this funding is to keep communities surrounding these projects - which have historically provided oil and gas - at the centre of Scotland’s future in the energy sector.
- Edinburgh-based Baillie Gifford and other UK active fund managers are at risk of losing billions of pounds in mandates (£) as the government forces consolidation of England and Wales’s £392 billion Local Government Pension Scheme.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
- For decades, a central component of ‘Scottish exceptionalism’ has been the left-wing character of Scottish voters. Now, polls showing Scots’ support for Reform UK policies challenge this image (£). Iain Macwhirter explores what might be driving this new trend in The Times.
- Keir Starmer needs to inspire and reassure with his big speech tomorrow. But, as laid out by the Financial Times’ analysis, he struggles to make an impact because his message keeps shifting and is often buried beneath political jargon (£). This piece maps out Starmer’s use of language with data, and discusses how it needs to change if he wants to deliver a compelling vision to his party and the public.
- As Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham mounts his bid for the Labour leadership, associate editor Stephen Bush looks at the validity of Burnham’s economic policy in a clip from the Financial Times’ Political Fix podcast. This comes after Burnham argued Britain shouldn’t be “in hock” to the bond markets. Could it be that, in the words of Ed Miliband, “Andy can’t do maths”?
Shifting the dial - recent research
There’s been *a lot* of polling ahead of Labour’s party conference.
A Norstat poll for The Sunday Times found that Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is now within touching distance of becoming the main opposition at Holyrood:
- 34% of voters plan on endorsing the SNP with their constituency vote, with 20% going for Reform and Labour down to just 17%.
- On the regional list, 29% of voters are planning to vote SNP, with Reform and Labour tied on 18%.
- Scottish voters support the mass detention and deportation of illegal immigrants.
Meanwhile, Ipsos’ latest Scottish Political Pulse survey found that:
- Keir Starmer’s and Anas Sarwar’s favourability ratings in Scotland are the lowest Ipsos has measured for either politician since this polling series began in October 2022.
- Starmer is less popular than Donald Trump in Scotland. While 20% of Scots have a favourable opinion of Trump, 16% have a favourable view of Starmer.
- Reform is gaining ground in Scotland, with one in four Scots viewing the party favourably – an upward swing of 6 points for Farage and 4 for Reform since February.
- Ratings of the Scottish Government’s performance on public services, although negative, have improved slightly since February – but the public continue to lack confidence in the SNP’s management of the economy.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Note: The UK parliament is in recess until 13 October 2025.
Monday
- UK: Rachel Reeves speech at Labour party conference (12 noon)
- US: Donald Trump hosts Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House
- Further preliminary hearing for a fatal accident inquiry into the Stonehaven rail crash
- Scottish Covid-19 inquiry. The inquiry will consider evidence from expert witnesses on lockdown and other restrictions
- France: Paris Fashion Week begins
Tuesday
- NHS Fife to publish equality impact assessment on single-sex spaces.
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Ministerial Statement: Techscaler Programme
- Stage 3 Proceedings: Housing (Scotland) Bill
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- The Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee will take evidence on the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Bill (UK parliament legislation)
- The Local Government, Housing and Planning Committee will take evidence on reform of Energy Performance Certificates
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Scottish Government data
- Housing Statistics for Scotland quarterly update, September 2025
- Energy Trends, Q2 2025
- Annual Sub-national Population Projections
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Reports
- UK: Q2 GDP estimate; Quarterly national accounts data; HM Revenue & Customs soft drinks industry levy statistics
- UK: Keir Starmer delivers his keynote speech to the Labour party conference (1400)
Wednesday
-
In the Holyrood chamber
- Scottish Labour Party Debate: Education
- Scottish Labour Party Debate: Community Safety
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- The Education, Children and Young People Committee will take evidence on the Restraint and Seclusion in Schools (Scotland) Bill at stage 1
- The Economy and Fair Work Committee will take evidence on Scottish Government priorities, including from deputy first minister Kate Forbes
- The Public Audit Committee will take evidence on Adult Disability Payment
- UK: Final day of Labour conference, including deputy leadership hustings (1200); energy price cap changes take effect
- US: Federal government shutdown deadline; fiscal year begins
- Denmark: Informal meeting between leaders of the 27 EU member states in Copenhagen to discuss defence and support for Ukraine
- Italy: Italian Tech Week begins in Turin, running until Friday
- UN: Russia assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council
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Reports
- Canada, Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global manufacturing PMI data
- UK: Nationwide September House Pirce Index
Thursday
-
In the Holyrood chamber
- First Minister’s Questions
- Stage 1 Debate: Dog Theft (Scotland) Bill
- Scottish Government data
- Heat in Buildings Progress Report, 2025
- Denmark: European Political Community meeting, including about 50 European leaders
- Deliveroo acquisition by DoorDash is expected to complete
- Orionid meteor shower visible
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Reports
- EU August unemployment data
- Tesco results
- Filming of The Graham Norton Show with guests Taylor Swift, Cillian Murphy, Greta Lee, Jodie Turner-Smith and Domhnall Gleeson. Music from Lewis Capaldi
Friday
- UK: Green Party conference begins in Bournemouth, running until Sunday
- Memorial service for former Holyrood presiding officer Sir George Reid at Canongate Kirk in Edinburgh
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Reports
- Canada, Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global services PMI data
- EU: Q2 House Price Index
- UK: British Retail Consortium’s September Economic Monitor
- US: September employment figures
Saturday
- Germany: Meeting of European interior ministers on migration
- Japan: Liberal Democratic party leadership election
Sunday
- UK: Conservative Party conference begins in Manchester, running until Wednesday