The clocks may have gone back an hour but political developments have not slowed down one bit. This week we discuss Jeremy Corbyn’s suspension from the Labour Party, Biden’s continued surge in the polls and Rashford running the narrative both on and off the pitch. We also continue to keep our eyes glued to Brexit negotiations and vaccine trial news. Read on below to discover what this all means for the weeks ahead.
Cor-binned
The Labour Party found its internal politics on the front pages for the first time in a while with the publication of the much anticipated Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) anti-Semitism report. The report details the wrongdoings of Labour under former leader, Jeremy Corbyn and may signal the start of a civil war within the party. Unsurprisingly, Corbyn has rejected the findings from the report, insisting that the scale of the problem was exaggerated. This left Starmer with little choice but to suspend him from the party.
The report compiled by the EHRC, which effectively serves as the UK’s human rights watchdog, found that Labour was responsible for three breaches of the equality act (2010) relating to political interference in anti-Semitism complaints. These breaches included: political interference in antisemitism complaints; a failure to provide adequate training to those handling antisemitism complaints and harassment. Starmer followed the launch of the report with a statement apologising to Jewish members of the Labour party and the Jewish community more widely. He also outlined that the report does not find individual failings in Corbyn but instead speaks to a failing of the party as a whole. Corbyn then responded by questioning the findings of the report and claiming in a televised interview that "I'm not part of the problem." When Corbyn refused to redact the statement, Labour removed the whip from its former leader.
While the narrative surrounding the decision to suspend Corbyn has largely swung in Starmer’s favour, some have questioned whether he personally failed to sufficiently tackle anti-Semitism while he served under Corbyn. For example, in a column for the Mail, Jewish Chronicle editor Stephen Pollard accused Starmer of doing too little to combat the issue in the past. Despite this criticism, the wider problem for Starmer going forward will be the attacks from his own side. The Socialist Campaign Group, formed of 33 left-wing Labour MPs, firmly opposed the decision. Those that back the former Labour leader are even considering the possibility of breaking away and forming their own party. According to an article in the Telegraph, one union source outlined that “there are some people in Unite who think it may be time to discuss a new party”. Although this would be a hit to Labour’s numbers in the House of Commons, it may help the party to appear modernised and make it easier for Starmer to lead. So far, the public backs the decision to suspend Corbyn, with 58 percent of Brits arguing it was the right move. Going forward, it will be interesting to keep an eye on the polls and see how successful Corbyn is in his fight against the suspension.
Four more years or four different years?
By far the biggest political story in the world next week will be the 2020 US elections. FiveThirtyEight’s widely recognised model is currently predicting Biden has an 89 in 100 shot of winning. Although that may sound very similar to four years ago, Biden’s lead at this point in the race is greater than Clinton’s and he is consistently ahead in polls in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Florida and Wisconsin.
Perhaps the more interesting results of 3 November will be that of the US Senate elections, where the Democrats must win three more seats to take control of the chambers which will lead to them having control of both houses of Congress and the presidency – something the Democrats have not accomplished since 2011.
Due to voting by mail and the general restrictions of COVID-19, it is unlikely that we will have the projected results of the election by the early hours of Wednesday morning as we are used to, so election-watchers may want to skip the all-nighter. However, when we do get the results all eyes will turn to Trump who has previously refused to state whether or not he would commit to a peaceful transition of power.
So what does this mean for us? One of the most pressing concerns for a UK standpoint may be the impact of a Biden victory on the current US-UK trade talks. Biden has ruled out any future trade accord between the US and the UK if Westminster does not respect the Good Friday Agreement and as it is nearly impossible that the UK and US would agree to a deal before inauguration day (20 January) this viewpoint may prove to be a sticking point for Westminster.
Beyond Biden’s allegiances, the US law governing the ratification of trade agreements expires in July, meaning a trade deal would have to be in agreed in April in order to swiftly pass through Congress, only giving the trade negotiations an extra four months. Moreover, Number 10 is reportedly disappointed that it has not had the chance to meet with any of Biden’s top foreign policy aids yet. Overall, this combination does not inspire much confidence in a US-UK trade deal anytime soon.
Brexit optimism? Can you do soy sauce with that?
European commission president Ursula Von der Leyen is optimistic about the two sides making progress on level playing field and fisheries regulations as the two teams returned to London to continue negotiations. This is a sharp contrast to the noises coming out of London last week that the UK was ready to walk away from talks.
Von der Leyen’s comments will come as reassurance to many businesses that are increasingly worried about the negative consequences of a no-deal on top of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as time passes it is more and more likely that talks are going to go down to the wire.
Beyond the EU trade talks, discussions are still continuing with many other countries including Canada where prime minister Trudeau said that a UK rollover trade deal will be far easier than Brexit talks. This came following the Department for International Trade’s Great British Bake Off tweet confirming that soy sauce will remain the same price following the successful signing of the UK’s trade deal with Japan. Furthermore there was confirmation earlier in the month that the UK has signed a historic post-Brexit free trade deal with Ukraine.
Rashford’s going for goal
By far the story with the greatest cut through this week was the continued row over free school meals for children in the half term holidays. Marcus Rashford, the Manchester United forward who has recently been awarded an MBE, is once again hitting back at the government for not ensuring children who receive free school meals in term time will receive similar provisions in the school holidays. This, along with outrage over subsidised meals in parliament for parliamentarians and staff, has created a perfect storm for Number 10 and has appeared to have real cut-through with the electorate. Rashford has been re-tweeting offers of meals for school kids and their families from local restaurants, pubs and community centres up and down the country and the offers appear to have been flooding in with big brands such as Wagamama, Pho and McDonald’s also offering meals. With the Christmas holidays just a couple of months away, this issue is sure to present itself again and all bets are on that Rashford will continue to taunt the government’s defence and score goals both on and off the pitch.
All I want for Christmas? A vaccine
The question many of us find ourselves asking with ever increasing frequency is: when will the current COVID-19 restrictions end? Most responses to that question seem to include one crucial word: vaccine. However, quite when this will arrive is far from clear. Many are now hopeful about the emergence of a vaccine before Christmas, including the Pfizer chief executive who said that its vaccine is in its "last mile" and results are expected within weeks. Senior staff at hospitals across the UK have also been briefing the press about their preparations to distribute the vaccine potentially even prior to Christmas. However, this optimism is often met with a dose of realism, as many scientists have warned that the first vaccine may be imperfect and will also need to be rationed for those deemed most vulnerable.
However, before we get to this point, the country may have to grapple with further restrictions. This week, there have been fresh fears that England is headed for a national lockdown by stealth, with numerous areas (too many to list) set to be levelled up in the tiering system. European countries, such as France, have already imposed a second national lockdown only this week and reports from Imperial College London suggest that without further intervention ICUs may be at capacity by 17December. Combined, this will add further pressure on the government to introduce a second national lockdown.
Look ahead
Despite heading towards the final two months of 2020, there is plenty yet to come this year. We are now only 65 days from the end of the transition period, so we can expect to hear more about Brexit and potential trade deals in the coming weeks. In addition, with COVID-19 an ever present fixture in our lives for the time being, we can expect more stark warnings from the government as we head towards winter. However, it is hoped that more positive news will arrive in the form of a vaccine, potentially as soon as Christmas. Finally, coverage of the US elections will be nearly unavoidable as Trump and Biden face their reckonings from the American electorate. We may be facing a drop in temperatures as we head towards winter, but we can be sure the world of politics is about to heat up.