A week is always a long time in politics, and another Conservative Minister bites the dust, as Raab resigns to the backbenches.
This week, we explore the implications for Sunak and the SNP's sinking ship with the party's ongoing finance investigations.
Flying High: Suella Braverman
The Home Secretary has seen off a Tory revolt of around 60 MPs from the right who have been demanding stronger action against the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR). Braverman could be granted new powers to ignore attempts by the European human rights judges to block migrant deportation flights under a proposed amendment that will likely be debated next week.
Braverman has also pledged to toughen the Illegal Migration Bill to prevent lawyers in Britain from using domestic human rights or other legislation to block deportation flights. It seems that the Tory right has won out on this issue, although the Tory left may also be placated on safe passage routes.
Rumours circulate in Westminster that Braverman herself was involved with the backbencher’s planned amendment which demonstrates both the importance of having a strong parliamentary management operation to further one’s political agenda, and why Sunak spent so much political capital upon becoming PM in making Braverman his Home Secretary a mere days after she first resigned from that role.
However, with Channel crossings becoming a significant election issue, the pressure will ultimately fall on Sunak. The proposed legislation is central to Sunak’s pledge to stop the boats, so it is worth reflecting that it has been a year since the government announced the deportation plan and not a single illegal immigrant has yet been relocated to Rwanda.
Middle Ranking: Humza Yousaf
It’s been a rough couple of weeks since Humza secured the flying high spot following his appointment as Scotland’s new first minister.
On a day when he was meant to stamp his authority and deliver his first major policy statement, the Scottish National Party’s treasurer was arrested. Police Scotland said Colin Beattie, the SNP MSP for Midlothian North and Musselburgh, had been taken into custody on Tuesday morning and was being interviewed. The move was announced as Humza prepared to deliver his vision to MSPs, setting out his government’s priorities after weeks of crisis management.
The ongoing investigation is providing easy ammunition for the opposition, saying that the SNP government is not functioning. Another scandal involving politicians and finances is not going to bode well with the public.
Humza has no choice but to stay calm and carry on, hoping that the investigation doesn’t lead to criminal charges. The SNP is currently in survival mode and Humza must charm multiple audiences; he must convince the Scottish people that the SNP is still capable of running a country, but he must also convince the referendum die-hards that he is the man to keep the flame of Scottish independence alive, no matter how remote a prospect that may seem at the moment.
Sinking Low: Dominic Raab
He fought the law and the law won as the now former Justice Secretary bowed to the inevitable and resigned from the government.
Raab has been fighting for his political life over allegations that he bullied officials. The final report, submitted to Sunak yesterday afternoon, investigated eight formal complaints against Raab and about his behaviour toward civil servants.
Sunak faced a dilemma as keeping Raab may have led to officials in the Ministry of Justice resigning and easy attack lines from the Labour Party. But sacking Raab will bring into question why Sunak hadn’t acted sooner and will bring his political judgement into question.
Raab’s resignation will trigger a small reshuffle (with his successor most likely to be called Victoria) and continuity hasn’t been the Conservative Party’s strong point over the past two years. The decision for Sunak is just the beginning, but it looks like we may have to wait a little longer for the Deputy’s political memoir “Raab’s Regrets”.