On 7 May 2026, England will go to the polls to elect 5,014 seats across the country, with Wales and Scotland also holding their seventh national elections since devolution.
It is a major year with a significant number of seats and the potential for significant change, including a shake-up in both the Senedd and Holyrood. By comparison, last year’s locals saw just 1,641 seats elected. The outcome marked a step change in UK politics with Tory losses to Reform, putting pressure on Kemi Badenoch and the Conservative Party to assert their relevance post-election loss. The Lib Dems and Greens made gains and Labour losses marked an early warning shot for the relatively newly elected UK Government.
Any pressure on Labour in 2025 has increased tenfold this year. Having initially squeaked through the Mandelson/Epstein scandal which opened the door to a narrowly aborted leadership challenge, Keir Starmer has in recent months sought to shore up his premiership by projecting strength on the world stage, most recently by clashing with US President Donald Trump over the UK’s involvement, or suggested lack thereof, in the Iran War. The reemergence of the Mandelson issue has seen the PM fighting for his job, with the local elections now falling at an even worse time. Whilst expectations are low amongst Labour members, a particularly bad showing (some experts predicting losses of 1,900 seats) is very likely to inflame an already precarious situation and be the catalyst for leadership challengers like Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting to make moves.
Kemi Badenoch, having enjoyed some stabilising of the national polls post general election, will again face the key question of whether the Conservatives can compete with Reform on the right. A particularly bad result could see the party seeking alternative direction. Reform, having claimed ten councils last year, will need to demonstrate again its electability, seeking to make gains across England and Wales following questions over the past year on its experience in running councils. The Greens, seemingly renewed but still electorally unknown under Zack Polanski, will need to prove that they are a viable alternative to Labour. The Lib Dems, struggling to gain a voice in the national conversation, will aim to continue making incremental gains in past Tory strongholds, potentially becoming the second largest party of local government.
Public affairs and communications agency Grayling has spotlighted five authorities to watch across England where a change in leadership is expected. Each council tells a slightly different story of what this year’s elections may mean.
Suffolk County Council
Following last year’s postponement, Suffolk has not held elections since 2021. It was a very different time, the UK was still under some Covid-19 measures, Boris Johnson was Prime Minister and the Brexit Party had just been renamed to Reform UK. In 2021, the Conservatives made gains, forming a majority with 52 of 75 seats on the Council. This year they face a major challenge from Reform who are likely to win a majority with the Tories at risk of losing all but a few seats. This would continue the blue to turquoise shift across the south east that started with Reform’s victory in Kent last year. A similar story is also likely in Essex where another healthy Tory majority is up for grabs by Reform.
As a county Suffolk has become increasingly politically diverse over recent years, with Green, Lib Dem and Labour leadership across the county's district councils and Labour, Green and Conservative MPs elected in 2024. This diversity has seen conflict between the county council and its districts. Plans backed by the former to create a single unitary authority covering the whole county have been opposed by all local district councils who instead support the creation of three unitary authorities. A win for Reform here would see Suffolk represented by all major parties in some manner but, depending on the outcome of those local government changes, it could be the last elections to Suffolk County Council in its current shape. Indeed, it seems the writing is on the wall for the incumbents, with nearly half of sitting Tory councillors not standing for re-election.
London
All 32 London Boroughs will be heading to the polls on 7 May. With over 1,800 seats up for grabs, Labour faces a crisis in the capital. The surge of the Greens and Reform is likely to make a sizeable dent in the 1,156 council seats won by Labour in 2022 and 21 boroughs it currently controls. Tory and Labour losses, the likely hold of South West areas where the Lib Dems are strongest and the introduction of Green and Reform led councils would give way to a very different and politically divided London. Reform will have most to gain, where a strong showing will be presented by Farage and his party as a passed litmus test that the party can win in major metropolitan areas as well as the regions.
To draw attention to a couple of key battlegrounds, Hackney is a borough that the Greens will see as winnable. Having won 50 of 57 seats in 2022, Labour has a huge majority in the left-leaning borough now at real risk of being won by the Greens. A big swing can be expected here, the Greens taking a majority would see them at last established in the capital along with a possible win in Hackney’s mayoralty election never before lost by Labour.
Another key borough is Wandsworth, an affluent area in South London led by the Conservatives from 1978 until 2022 when Labour took control. As Reform is unlikely to gain a real foothold, it will likely be a race between Labour and the Conservatives with the possible introduction of Greens splitting the left-of-centre vote. This could see the Conservatives pick up seats and even reclaim the council, bucking the expected trend for the party across the wider city and country. An influx of Green seats could, however, see any party struggle to reach a majority. If the Greens underperform, the Conservatives have a chance to regain the borough, an outcome which would embolden Badenoch and the party to believe that they can still be competitive in the capital and in “soft-right” areas.
Gateshead Council
A drubbing in the North East “red wall” could spell disaster for Labour and Starmer. With elections across Gateshead and Sunderland, it is entirely possible that they may fall out of Labour leadership and into no overall control, following the trend of Newcastle and South Tyneside in recent years (both also holding elections in 2026).
In Gateshead where all-out elections are taking place, it is Reform and not the Greens that pose the greatest challenge to Labour. Labour losses are expected to be deep enough that even a resilient Lib Dem contingent is unlikely to prevent a Reform majority. Farage has commented on Gateshead as a “straight fight” with Labour and should Reform have a good showing he will take this as proof of Reform’s ability to win traditional Labour voters in the North East. For Starmer, the loss would echo the 2021 Hartlepool by-election loss to the Conservatives, which it is reported that the then Leader of the Opposition considered resigning in the wake of.
Birmingham City Council
Whilst the Tories face challenges in historically strong regional areas, it is mostly Labour who will be feeling the pressure in major cities. Birmingham has been majority-led by Labour since 2012, which was preceded by a nine-year period under no majority control. It would seem the latter is where we are returning, where mounting dissatisfaction toward the Labour administration fuelled by the council’s financial crisis and a year-long bin strike, has given way to surges from Reform and the Greens. This has created a five-horse race with the Conservatives and Lib Dems also looking to keep hold of their minority stakes.
Labour’s threats are from all directions, with Reform winning over disillusioned traditional Labour voters in the south-west, north and east of the city, and the Greens peeling off voters in the younger, graduate-heavy wards. Alongside those traditional party rivals, a slate of independent candidates under the banner of the Independent Candidate Alliance (ICA) is eating into Labour’s previously loyal Muslim vote due to a mix of local and international issues.
The Council is highly likely to come out of Thursday’s vote under no overall control. It could require a Labour-Green-Lib Dem or a Tory-Reform coalition, should the Tories hold the 23 seats won in 2022 and Reform make the gains they expect, to form a majority administration. Either way, 101 seats up for grabs sets a high threshold for a working majority, with the big unknown being how the ICA councillors will operate when they may have a group sizeable enough to be kingmakers.
Bradford Council
Labour face further challenges in Bradford in another five-party race similar to that in Birmingham. Labour, having just met the 46 seats required to keep its majority in 2024, will now see all council seats up following boundary changes. The likely result is that the metropolitan borough will fall out of majority Labour control for the first time in twelve years, with the Greens likely to come out as the largest party under no overall control. Reform is also expected to perform strongly and is most likely to challenge the Greens here. The Lib Dems, Tories and independents holding seats would see six blocks form across the Council, putting all parties some way off the required seats for a majority.
The independents are expected to perform well and pick up seats. The 16 current independents are split across four different alliance groups including the Your Bradford Independents group, aligned with Jeremy Corbyn’s Your Party. Independents may well end up deciding which party can form an administration, with more ideological compatibility with the Greens than Reform.
Conclusion
If the 2025 locals were the trailer hinting at the end of the classic Labour / Conservative political dominance, 2026 is expected to be the full release – rubber stamping a new five-party political era in England. The real-world impact of this is likely to be more councils unable to form a majority and falling under “no overall control”, this will require coalitions between political rivals sharing space on both sides of the political spectrum (Labour and Greens or Lib Dems, Reform and Conservatives). If these cannot be made, we will see more authorities operating under minority administrations which will ultimately still require bipartisan decision making to avoid stagnation on crucial local issues like housing, education and the provision of wider public services – a real challenge across a country that is becoming increasingly politically fractured.
If your business may be impacted by the 2026 local elections and you would like to know more about potential changes and what they may mean for you, contact the Grayling team at info@grayling.com.
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