If you were to glance fleetingly at a map of all the local elections taking place across the country tomorrow, you’d be forgiven for not being immediately drawn to the South West. There are, after all, just four councils and only 109 seats being contested across the region this year. Nonetheless, three of the four are currently Labour-controlled, with only one (Plymouth) certain to still be Labour on Friday morning.
What the region lacks this year in terms of electoral numbers it more than makes up in significance. Of the 109 seats being contested across Plymouth (one third), Exeter (one third), Cheltenham (half) and Swindon (all), 48% are being defended by Labour, which broadly speaking matches the proportion nationally. As nationally, in Plymouth, Exeter and Swindon Labour faces losing both votes and seats to the Greens and Reform.
How do I see each of these four political contests playing out?
Cheltenham, with the greatest of respect, is in the grander scheme of things politically quite predictable. It is currently controlled by the Lib Dems with a large majority and unless I’m completely wrong will continue to do so comfortably.
While Plymouth is at first glance uninteresting in that Labour will maintain control of the council even if it loses all ten seats it is defending – there are other factors here. The Greens will be eyeing up further success in the city and increasing their representation beyond the ward of Plympton Chaddlewood. Reform will also sense an opportunity too; its forerunner UKIP once won three seats and was part of a ‘Bluekip’ council with the Conservatives in 2016 – Reform will be looking to at least emulate that this year.
In Exeter, the situation is more precarious for Labour. Losing just three of the eight seats it is defending will see it lose its majority and given the state of polling this seems highly likely. The Greens, positioning themselves as the main challengers to Labour, will hope to gain seats; similarly Reform will be looking to add to its two councillors. Both had success in last year’s Devon County Council elections in the city. The end result is likely to be a fragmented council with no overall control, with Labour being the largest Party with 14 or 15 of the 39 seats; and representation for the Greens, Reform, the Lib Dems, Conservatives and Independents.
By far the most interesting, and consequential, council being elected tomorrow is Swindon. For the first time since 2012 all of the borough’s 57 council seats are being contested. Traditionally seen as the region’s ‘bellwether’ at a parliamentary level, voters there have returned MPs matching the winning party at a general election since 1983. Controlled by the Conservatives between 2004 and 2023, Labour finally won a majority in 2023 – and Swindon Borough Council has been dominated by the two traditional ‘main’ parties.
Issues like the state of the town centre and the future of the Oasis leisure centre have dominated the campaign. It’s worth remembering that odd things happen in all out elections like this – voters don’t necessarily use all (in this case three) of their votes the same way, and this can sometimes produce strange situations where the first two councillors from the same party are elected with a large majority, and the third sneaks in from a different one with a much lower percentage. This makes predicting an outcome difficult in this instance. While Labour losing its majority may be likely, a good result could be ending up as the largest party. Reform will be eyeing this and more; having held a rally with Nigel Farage in March they will fancy their chances at overall control. It will also be interesting to see if the Lib Dems and Greens can make inroads in certain wards.
You’ll note I haven’t mentioned much about the Conservatives, which is strange in a region they have traditionally performed well in. We should also pay attention to what happens to their vote share too.
For businesses engaging with local authorities, the key question is not simply who wins, but how these councils are governed. A number of these contests like Exeter and Swindon could produce more fragmented political landscapes, with implications for decision-making, planning policy and the pace of regeneration.
In an age of considerable political flux, let me end on something of a constant. While so much is changing; now in his fifth stint as leader – something that started in 1998 – on Friday morning Tudor Evans will still be leader of Plymouth City Council. Remarkable.