Welsh elections rarely have an impact on UK politics, as the Welsh reliably and predictably elect scores of Labour politicians to the parliaments in Cardiff and London.
But the Senedd (Welsh Parliament) election on 7 May 2026 is likely to be different. Consistent polling is projecting that Labour will suffer heavy losses in Wales. The rout is expected to be so severe that Labour’s First Minister, Eluned Morgan, could lose her seat.
But what is going on with the political parties in Wales?
Plaid Cymru
Plaid Cymru is an old party with a new purpose and confidence. After 100 years of electoral mediocrity the party is now riding high in the polls. Under the leadership of Rhun ap Iorwerth Plaid is more focused and serious than it has been in decades, offering a centre-left platform in the European, social democratic style.
Its defeat of Labour and Reform in the Caerphilly by-election last year was a watershed moment in the party’s history, not only proving that it could take seats from Labour in its heartlands but also positioning Plaid as the tactical choice for voters opposed to Reform. Plaid is now trying to frame the election as a binary choice between a grassroots and hopeful Welsh party or a London-controlled, billionaire-backed Reform party.
It is now highly likely that Plaid Cymru will lead the next Welsh Government. The only question is “with whom?”
Reform
Upstart party Reform has been enjoying a surge in popularity in recent months, winning by-elections to local authorities across Wales. As May approaches, the party is now seeking to position the Welsh election as a referendum on Keir Starmer’s leadership.
But not all is rosy in the land of Reform.
Its momentum does seem to have stalled, starting with its high-profile loss to Plaid Cymru in the Caerphilly by-election.
The party is also currently racked with infighting over allegations of Farage loyalists being parachuted in. Candidates with tenuous links to Wales, coming from as far afield as London and Coventry, are set to join the Senedd in May, many of whom are former Conservatives. This has led to multiple resignations of local Reform party candidates that were overlooked for top spots. And the numbers don’t lie. Only 60% of Reform candidates live in the seats they seek to represent, the lowest percentage of any of the national parties.
Nonetheless, with a new Welsh leader in Dan Thomas, a recently released manifesto and bumper fundraising numbers, Reform is set for at least a strong second placed finish, which would make them the official opposition in Wales.
Labour
“Labour” and the word “losing” haven’t been paired together for over a century in Wales, but a heavy loss in May looks likely.
The writing has been on the wall for some time. Wales bucked the UK trend in 2024, when Labour swept to victory in the Westminster election. The party’s vote share decreased in Wales. Since that election, under the leadership of Keir Starmer, the party’s popularity has plummeted.
The Labour Welsh Government has often conspired to make things worse, unusually lurching from crisis to crisis. At times these have been policy related; the 20mph default speed limit introduced by Labour has venerably saved lives, but at the cost of an unprecedented public backlash. Other crises have been political. Vaughan Gething resigning just months into his First Ministership, over a political donations scandal, being the most prominent.
Like Tottenham in 2026, Welsh Labour just has a strong stench of relegation about it. Big institutions failing often engenders a certain sadism in the public and how much pain they choose to inflict on Welsh Labour could be consequential at a UK level. If Labour is decimated in its red Welsh heartlands, Keir Starmer may not survive.
The Greens
Like Plaid Cymru and Reform, the Greens are also surging in popularity. New leader Zack Polanski has brought fresh energy to the party and media exposure has been greatly increased. Activists are working tirelessly on the ground in the Greens' target seats.
Having never won a Senedd seat, the Greens are even talking themselves up as kingmakers. If they win their projected ten seats, they could be viable coalition partners with Plaid Cymru. The two parties have worked together before, through electoral pacts for local elections. There are also many areas, particularly on social justice issues, where Plaid and the Greens have policy overlaps. Therefore, as unlikely as it would have sounded just 12 months ago, a Plaid/Green Senedd coalition is a very real possibility in May.
The Conservatives
There’s no hiding the fact that the Conservatives are in huge trouble in Wales. They lost all their Welsh MPs in the Westminster election in 2024 and could repeat the trick at the Senedd election in 2026. Many Tories have already jumped ship to Reform, with the party now stuffed with former Conservative politicians and staffers. The challenge the Tories must now face in Wales is not just daunting, it’s existential.
The Liberal Democrats
The Liberal Democrats are a rare example of full political divergence between Wales and the rest of the UK. In Scotland, the Lib Dems win seats to Westminster and the Scottish Parliament and still have areas of real strength. In England, the party is enjoying something of a resurgence. But in Wales, the party is on life support, with no sign of recovery after its damaging coalition government with the Conservatives in 2010.
In many ways the party has never looked less relevant. If the Lib Dems manage to scrape together a couple of Senedd seats, they will likely be too few to play any kingmaker role, through forming a government or doing budget deals. If they fail to win any seats, it may be time to pull the plug and focus efforts elsewhere.
Conclusion
Politics in Wales is going through a period of transformational change.
A possible Plaid-led government, hard-right Reform surge, and the emergence of the Greens as kingmakers all point to a Welsh polity breaking decisively with Labour dominance. If Labour is punished heavily in the nation that has long been its happiest hunting ground, Keir Starmer may not survive.
Any kind of better-than-expected performance could well save him. But if the horrors of an election rout, never experienced by any Labour activist in Wales, does come to pass, Starmer’s grip on power will undoubtedly be weaker than ever.