As conference ends this week in Liverpool, Prime Minister Keir Starmer will hope that an end to leadership speculation, taking the fight to Reform and renewed articulation of Labour’s core values can do enough to halt bitter infighting and begin to reverse his party’s collapse in popular support.
Speaking on Tuesday afternoon, a confident Starmer rallied delegates, reinforcing Labour’s election-winning priorities. Delivering cheap clean energy, implementing a transformational industrial strategy, fixing NHS waiting lists, the Prime Minister was optimistic, reminding his party of its duty to deliver for voters. From new laws to support Hillsborough families to financial support for Jaguar Land Rover and British steel, he emphasised Labour’s fundamental responsibility to working people.
In terms of actual new policy, as with the Chancellor on Monday, the speech was light. Starmer focused principally on funding to support a new target for two thirds of young people to get higher level skills, either through university, further education, or a gold standard apprenticeship by age 25. Referencing Labour’s step up in childcare provision, additional investment in defence, and recent reforms to immigration, he was keen to reject opponents’ accusations on the right and left of a “broken” Britain.
Did Starmer’s speech do enough? Short answer: yes, for now. The speech was confident, authentic, and well received in the hall.
But does it mark a reversal to Labour’s polling slump and the beginning of a “Starmer bounce”? That could be a lot more complicated. Party conferences are hugely important for members and businesses especially to understand policy trajectory. But for “Joe Public”, they tend to be remembered only when things go wrong. Sweaty shirts, streaking protestors, sore throats, and backdrops collapsing make for more long-lasting polling impact than speeches on the conference floor.
And for Labour specifically:
- An end to leadership hostilities could well be a temporary reprieve until next year’s May elections. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham’s ill-timed intervention may have backfired, but there remains no obvious alternative to Starmer in the current cabinet if Labour’s poll slump continues. Members will surely also expect a new Deputy Leader to challenge the Starmer status quo.
- Celebrating Reform as the principal opposition to government risks conferring Farage with even more legitimacy. The Conservatives at least have a record in government to attack, whereas Reform represent for many a refreshing break with the “old parties”. It’s harder to expect Farage to implode if he’s now recognised as setting and answering to the agenda.
- The path to growth remains opaque and the macro conditions for business success divorced from the detail. Warm words from Starmer and Reeves (again) but no change to increased employment regulation, no rowing back on business tax hikes, and growing uncertainty surrounding Net Zero commitments all threaten to undermine the useful foundations of Labour’s modern industrial strategy. Infrastructure in ten years’ time doesn’t win votes tomorrow.
- The Budget in November becomes the next “big test”, with a Chancellor so constrained, she’s almost certain to disappoint. Demands for a wealth tax, lifting the two-child benefit cap, overhaul of property taxes, billions extra for frontline pay and services, Reeves can’t possibly satisfy a majority of Labour MPs. Fiscal rule fanaticism risks cementing Labour permanently as more synonymous with punitive tax rises than unleashing growth.
- Healing internal battles will likely continue to distract from building a credible and energetic narrative on domestic policy delivery. Starmer’s recognisable successes in office remain to date largely on the global stage. But demonstrating impact on public services is likely to be the key battleground for Labour to outflank Reform at the next election. And yet after only fourteen months, Labour already feels like a government flagging after five years.