Reigning Rayner, the Manchurian Candidate, and a false start or two - another carousel week in politics!
From Angela Rayner being spectre force, haunting the leadership, to Andy Burnham playing the Manchurian Candidate, testing the waters while 'Burnham bridges' with Starmer. While Lee Anderson starts Reforms by-election campaign with a stumble straight out of the blocks.
All this and more in the latest Who’s Top, Who’s Not
Top – Angela Rayner
For someone who formally stepped away from frontline politics almost six months ago, Angela Rayner continues to exert a striking political and media presence. Not only has she been credited with the benefits of the recently published leasehold reform bill, but Rayner has also been repeatedly referenced in reports on ‘Burnham-gate’, with her having an internal authority within the party.
This image is perhaps, prima facie, given Rayner’s exit from the front bench and the deputyship. Yet, seemingly without effort, she continues to play a soft-power role within Labour, which is only building her image and authority. There is, however, more being played out than meets the eye here. The reality is that Rayner is the real spectre haunting Starmer (sorry, Andy). Positioned on the soft left and with a seat in parliament, Rayner is seen as a genuine candidate for challenging Starmer’s authority, and one with significant backing from the PLP.
Middle – Andy Burnham
When Andy Burnham put his name forward for the Gorton and Denton by-election, he did so knowing the pressure it would place on Keir Starmer. While some have framed the move as opportunistic, it is more plausibly read as a calculated intervention, made in the knowledge that the leadership was unlikely to approve his candidacy. In that sense, the act itself — rather than the outcome — was the political objective.
Politically, the move has reinforced Burnham’s positioning as a potential leadership challenger and, crucially for him, has sharpened internal tensions around Starmer’s authority. But what is the endgame for Burnham? He is no closer to a seat back in Parliament and a long way from No.10. Certainly, his profile is raised, but the problem with being the prince across the water is that you remain a long way from power.
The prevailing narrative overstates Burnham’s leverage and his parliamentary support. There is a difference between being pro-Burnham and being anti-Starmer, and it is dangerous to conflate the two. Moreover, with multiple alternative figures circulating as future contenders — including Angela Rayner, Lucy Powell and Louise Haigh — Burnham’s path to consolidating sufficient parliamentary support from the soft left remains narrow.
Seen in this light, the intervention appears double-edged. It has boosted Burnham’s profile and reaffirmed his relevance, but it has also caused alienation within the parliamentary party, with some MPs viewing the move as a premature power grab that risked party unity. Reports that Starmer had previously explored offering Burnham a managed route back into frontline politics next year only underline the extent to which this episode has hardened positions on both sides.
Bottom – Lee Anderson
With all by-elections, there are slip-ups, but usually not at the very first hurdle… so roll up 30p Lee! Reform launched its by-election campaign in Gorton and Denton, only for it to be pointed out that it wasn't, actually, in Gorton and Denton (but in the neighbouring constituency of Angela Rayner’s). It wasn't just Labour who was quick to jump on this; all the parties ridiculed Reform (though it seems the Greens stayed quiet, presumably after they got caught misspelling “Gorton” on their campaign posters).
Unlike other by-elections, this one features multiple actual contenders — Labour, Reform, Greens, and potentially others — who believe they have a real shot at winning, and they would be right. With several parties actively competing in the first-past-the-post system and an end to ‘safe seats’, even small shifts in support can produce unexpected results, making this by-election a microcosm of what will likely be seen nationally in the next general election. Labour may be losing voters left and right to both Reform and the Greens, but with a majority in the tens of thousands and a poll bump, accurate predictions are far from clear.