As predicted in WA’s Managing political risk report back in January, what happens in Scotland this year could be crucial for the fortunes of the UK’s next government. Since then the SNP’s surge has continued and Nicola Sturgeon, its leader and Scotland’s First Minister, goes from strength to strength. That in turn shines a brighter spotlight on the SNP’s manifesto than in previous Westminster elections. What does it say and what are the implications?
The manifesto itself positions the SNP to the left of Labour and, unsurprisingly, as champions for Scotland in Westminster. £140bn extra public spending on services and infrastructure, a 0.5% increase year on year rather than cuts; increasing the NHS budget by £24bn over 5 years, including by £2bn a year in Scotland; and opposing Trident’s renewal. It also revisits the Smith Commission’s conclusions on post-referendum devolution by backing home rule with full fiscal responsibility.
It’s not just about the manifesto though; the SNP’s leader has been the star of this election campaign so far. Many voters say they find her honest, intelligent and strong. Ironically, Nicola Sturgeon even scores well on these measures with voters in England. Perhaps this is because for many outside Scotland she’s a new figure on the national stage, but it may also reflect her approach to politics, being clear – and different – in her views and constructively challenging her opponents.
What does the manifesto tell us about a possible working arrangement between Labour and the SNP in Westminster after May, if the election result makes that an option? Well there’s much for the parties to agree on. The SNP pledges to a 50p tax rate, a mansion tax, bankers’ bonus taxes, an end to the bedroom tax and ‘non-dom’ status, reforming zero hours contracts, reducing tuition fees in England and Wales, and a minimum wage at £8.70 by 2020 all broadly aligned with Labour’s plans.
The main stumbling blocks appear to be fiscal discipline and Trident. On the former, it’s a question of whether an arrangement can at the same time serve Labour’s economic credentials and allow the SNP to win rewards for Scotland. On the latter, Tory support or abstentions may allow Labour to renew Trident regardless of the SNP’s views.
The nationalists will have to be careful what they oppose and how far they go to oppose it. Refuse to back a Labour budget because it is not progressive enough and the SNP risks not only returning the Conservatives to No.10 but also enacting all the social, employment and tax policies on which they are at one with Labour. Although the SNP is riding high now, they’ll be determined to guard their lead into next year and the Holyrood elections. As with everything in this election, the permutations are complex and the outcome risky for all.