Following his televised address on 8 October, Sébastien Lecornu has formally submitted his resignation and is now acting in a caretaker capacity. The Élysée has confirmed that President Macron will appoint a new Prime Minister within 48 hours, likely before the weekend.
Speculation continues around possible successors, though several leading political figures, including Jean-Louis Borloo, have publicly denied contact with the presidency. The next Prime Minister will inherit the urgent task of finalising and defending the 2026 budget, expected to be presented to Parliament on Monday.
Lecornu reiterated last night that he will not return to Matignon, emphasising that a workable majority still exists to prevent dissolution. He confirmed a fiscal deficit target revised to 4.7-5.0 % of GDP, signaling moderate flexibility to secure parliamentary approval.
The President’s immediate priority is to secure a government capable of passing the 2026 budget. A “non-censure agreement”, allowing the Assembly to adopt the budget without triggering a vote of no confidence, now appears the most plausible path to short-term stability.
If consensus proves impossible, Macron still holds the option of dissolving the National Assembly, though it remains politically risky and widely opposed within Parliament, especially among his own supporters and one part of the left coalition. The only ones to call for a dissolution are the extreme right and left deputies.
Economic and business implications
The political uncertainty that has persisted since July, marked by the failed pension conclave, the announcement of €44 billion in savings in the 2025 budget, and the resignation of the Prime Minister, is already weighing on the French economy. Growth expectations have fallen from 1% to 0.8%, and many firms have begun to freeze investments and recruitment in anticipation of further instability.
Should a non-censure agreement permit the 2026 budget to pass, markets would likely experience a brief easing, driven by relief that the institutional crisis is receding. Yet the price of stability will be heavy: the likely suspension of the pension reform, higher corporate and high-income taxation, and slower reduction of public expenditure.
Such measures would avert immediate paralysis, but at the expense of delaying France’s longer-term fiscal and structural recovery. Bond yields, investor sentiment, and the euro’s trajectory will continue to respond sharply to signals from Paris in the coming days.