As party conference season draws to a close, it is perhaps worthwhile reflecting on what we have learned over the past few weeks. While it is, of course, tempting to say “nothing”, it is worth highlighting that the key themes raised in the past few weeks have been quite illustrative and perhaps indicative of where British politics is headed.
After all, each of the party leaders have had to carefully and deliberately set out their position to internal and external audiences – in what remains a volatile time politically. Each of the parties has, in their own way, used this period to position themselves with voters for the months and years ahead.
First up: Reform. At their upbeat conference in Birmingham’s NEC over a month ago, Reform emphasised the sense of political momentum and their ability to set the agenda, with Nigel Farage himself declaring that they were, "headed ever closer towards winning the next general election". This confidence was understandable, given their sustained lead in the polls. But it is also likely to be helped by their underlying confidence in their policy agenda and pitch to voters.
Their policy agenda is straightforward – hard line on immigration ("stop the boats within two weeks"), hardline on crime ("zero tolerance policing") and anti-net zero and renewable energy (scrapping "harmful, wasteful" net zero policies).
The pitch with voters is also simple, as emphasised by Farage’s speech, which is essentially this: All other parties have failed. Britain is "in a very bad place" and Reform is "the last chance the country's got to get this country back on track".
This clear pitch to voters and a sense of momentum is likely to set the tone for the coming months, especially if the party achieves success in next year's local elections and, even more so if Reform achieves its high aspirations of winning the Senedd elections and entering government in Wales.
Labour’s conference in Liverpool was not quite as straightforward. They entered their party conference with questions around Starmer’s leadership, his governing style, a lack of confidence in the government’s plans to grow the economy and concerns about the state of public finances and the potential impact of this Autumn’s Budget.
And while most of these concerns remain, the debates around Starmer’s leadership were mostly controlled and his combative speech was well received. In addition, it was possible to detect a fairly coherent political strategy from Labour through Starmer’s speech and interventions – which is for Labour to present themselves as the only credible alternative to Nigel Farage.
Starmer dedicated a significant portion of his speech to calling out Farage and Reform, accusing them of just wanting “to stir the pot of division” and describe their policy on deportations as essentially racist. This last point – and use of the “R” word - prompted a fair amount of comment, but you can see the logic. In any future electoral strategy, Labour will be incentivised to use a strong stance against Reform in the hope of squeezing the Lib Dem, Greens and soft Tory vote who are fearful of Nigel Farage becoming prime minister.
Meanwhile, the Conservative Party’s strategy, as evidenced by their conference in Manchester this week – was not particularly clear. It could have been worse. But the confident and well-received speech from Kemi Badenoch defied some expectations.
The Party’s positioning could be described, at best (as by my colleague Fraser Raleigh here) - as “tougher than Labour and more competent than Reform”. However, what this means in reality is the Conservative Party ends up announcing a set of policies that seem to be aping Reform’s position - a month after Reform has announced something similar. The announcements of repealing the 2008 Climate Change Act and talk of creating a US-style “removals force” for immigrants felt decidedly panicked and rushed – and there is the question over whether those tempted by such hardline measures will always prefer the real thing (i.e. Reform). Their announcements on fiscal conservativism and tax cuts could, however, be more beneficial to their longer-term positioning.
The next election is a long time away. The government faces huge challenges ahead on the economy and public services and has a particularly tricky fiscal and political pressures to navigate with the Autumn Budget. However, the past few weeks have shown some clear political strategies from the main parties.