Well it is over. As predicted, Humza Yousaf won, but only just. Explicitly backed by SNP HQ he managed to scrape over the line with 52% of the vote to Kate Forbes 48%. Indeed, from a standing start Forbes’ campaign developed a cutting edge towards the campaign’s conclusion.
Had Kate stated at an earlier stage that she could govern without the Green Party, she may well have won; and had the campaign not been truncated, and candidates had been allowed direct communication with members, as happens in any sensible political party, her chances of victory would have been greater.
Following his election, the continuity candidate’s immediate actions indicated a disconnect with the Scottish people’s priorities. He demanded that Westminster remove the block to Independence and confirmed that the SNP’s coalition with the Green Party will continue, despite the fact that any connection with the Greens at this stage is electoral suicide.
The price of the continuing coalition is ongoing support for the Gender Recognition Reform Bill, a Bill that has divided Scotland, with two thirds of Scots against the proposals. The events in New Zealand at the weekend where Trans “women” brutally shut down a Women’s Rights rally, including assaulting a 70 year old grandmother, perfectly illustrates the need for safe spaces for women and children. If he persists with the policy the chances of healing the divisions in Scottish society, far less the SNP, are remote and will hasten the electoral demise of his party.
He faces further immense challenges. There is a need to reset the relationship with the Scottish business community, concentrate on growing the economy in order to create the wealth needed to support developing social policies. The Scottish education system, once regarded as one to which other countries’ would aspire, is now in need of a review, not only in developing a curriculum that stretches the brightest but which is also able to provide appropriate and relevant vocational education.
Whoever becomes the Health Secretary will have many sleepless nights. He, or she, will have to tackle ongoing health inequalities, soaring drug deaths and the current stall in life expectancy, to say nothing of the provision of appropriate social care for elder Scots.
Perhaps the most pressing challenge will be to decide what to do with the still unfinished ferries. Now three times over budget, and five years late, there is a growing recognition that they might never sail.
His further problem will be putting together a functional Cabinet with some of the more credible ministers retiring to the back benches, alongside a limited number of talented back bench MSP’s, that are obvious candidates for promotion.
His first real electoral test will come with the 2024 general election where current expectations are that the SNP will lose a significant number of seats, not just in the central belt but also in rural Scotland. Should that happen a further leadership contest will beckon.
It is a credit to Scotland that the new First Minister is the first Muslim elected to be leader of a devolved government and that should be celebrated. However, Humza is also the first to reach the most important political position in Scotland to have never had employment outwith politics. Not a welcome first.
by Keith Geddes, Policy Director, Pagoda PR