September 18th marked the second anniversary of the “once in a lifetime” Scottish independence referendum. And, following Brexit, the “change in circumstances” that the First Minister deemed necessary for a second plebiscite, speculation is rife that a further vote may come soon.
Immediately following the June 23rd vote, Independence saw a “Brexit bounce” with support rising to 53%. However that trend has not continued and the latest poll (Sunday Times Heart FM 18 September) found that 52% of Scots would vote to remain in the UK, with 48% supporting independence.
And Ipsos MORI’s most recent poll (15 September) suggests that there is limited enthusiasm to repeat the experience at lease anytime soon. Only 40% think there should be another vote within two years, with 55% disagreeing.
Meanwhile Nicola Sturgeon is being urged by senior SNP members to wait until after the 2020 general election before calling a second referendum. One SNP MP said “We have to see how the Brexit negotiations work out and build an economic argument; that takes time. Our best opportunity will come after another Tory victory at the next general election”.
Nicola Sturgeon has announced the setting up of a “Growth Commission” to examine ways in which an Independent Scotland’s economy could be stimulated following Brexit. If nothing else the need for such a Commission is an overt acceptance by the SNP that the economic case put forward in the 2014 White Paper no longer stacks up.
However the First Minister’s ongoing need to keep her Party onside saw her reflect that: “The case for self-government ultimately transcends the issues of Brexit, of oil, of national wealth and balance sheets”, while Alex Salmond expressed the view that another referendum would take place in 2018.
So will there be a second referendum soon? Perhaps the best indication came from Deputy First Minister John Swinney, who argued that the outcome of the Brexit talks would create the conditions for the Scottish government to decide whether or not to hold a fresh independence poll.
That points to at least 2020 and, given the likely ‘speed’ of Brexit negotiations, perhaps much longer, but only time will tell.