A total of 64.8% the Northern Ireland electorate voted last Thursday on March 2nd up ten points on last year. Writing about this election less than three days after the final seat was announced at 3.30am on Saturday morning, it is difficult to get a handle on what it actually means in the long term.
What we know is that the calling of the election represented the culmination of the political fallout over the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI), and its aftermath. Issues concerning funding of the Irish language helped crystallise a growing sense of frustration from within nationalist circles that the Stormont institutions, in their current form, were not delivering for them.
Nationalists, already unsettled by Brexit, responded positively to Sinn Féin’s campaign for ‘Equality, Respect, Integrity.’ In a space of just 10 months, since the 2016 contest, the party witnessed an increase in votes of 3.9 per cent. It returned 27 MLAs to the Assembly and, taking account of the reduction in available spots from 108 to 90, this is a real-term increase of four seats, taking account of the new 90-seat Assembly.
On the unionist side, while the number of DUP first preferences increased, the party, under leader Arlene Foster, was without doubt punished for a series of misdemeanours, not least its response to the RHI scandal.
While the DUP retains the majority at Stormont, its ascendency has eroded significantly to just one seat ahead of nearest rival Sinn Féin. It lost 10 MLAs, falling from 38 to 28, four fewer in real terms.
For many in the DUP it is a deeply disappointing election. Others will feel that the DUP wasn’t punished as it might have been, as it consolidated its hold on the unionist electorate. It also returned three MLAs in the Strangford constituency, where the ‘whistleblowing’ former DUP DETI Minister Jonathan Bell ran against three incumbent DUP ministers – no mean achievement under the circumstances.
Another success for nationalism saw the SDLP overtake the UUP in third place, its 12 successful candidates besting the UUP’s 10. The latter suffered a number of notable casualties including Party leader Mike Nesbitt who took responsibility for the poor showing before the count was even concluded, announcing his intention to stand down once a replacement had been found.
Alliance’s electoral performance was to its credit, returning eight outgoing MLAs. That tally came in spite of the increased competition for seats and entitles the party to be part of the official opposition, or the Executive. However, the party’s growth is hampered by the fact that it does not currently have the capacity to contest all eighteen constituencies.
The election of Clare Bailey as the fifth and final Belfast South MLA in the early hours of Saturday morning had #StayingAwakeforBailey trending as far away as the United States, Australia and even Coventry.
Critically, it ensured that the DUP moved one step further away from the magic number of 30 seats which has enabled it to singlehandedly block any legislation and votes they disagreed with, via the Petition of Concern.
There is now a three-week window to find a resolution between the parties that can permit the formation of a new Executive. Without doubt, there will be pressure on DUP leader Arlene Foster to accept some responsibility for the DUP’s showing. Calls to ‘step aside’ are unlikely to subside. Nationalism, and Sinn Féin in particular, has received a strong mandate in advance of these negotiations, as had the middle ground. With everything to play for, just like the election, the drama is far from over.