After a whirlwind 2025, observers were bracing for an even more volatile and tumultuous year. In less than a week, 2026 has already delivered.
The dramatic capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by US forces has sent shockwaves across the globe. Over the weekend, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed America is at war “against drug trafficking organisations” not Venezuela itself. The future governance arrangements are still unclear, with Rubio also saying the US is "running the direction" of the country for now.
The UK Government has responded cautiously to these developments. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer declined to comment on whether the US strikes broke international law, reflecting the delicate balancing act the UK is treading with one of its closest allies.
The Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper is set to address the Commons this afternoon which will provide further clarity on its position, but the UK is set to refrain from explicit criticism given concerns over angering President Trump and will abstain if the issue is pushed to a vote at the UN Security Council.
Westminster returns from recess under the shadow of these global shocks. January often brings talk of a “reset,” but the Government is keen to downplay suggestions of dramatic change of approach, although polling suggests more radical action may be required.
In this vein, over the weekend the Prime Minister signalled a willingness to pursue closer alignment with the European Union. Starmer said the UK should move towards closer alignment with EU markets "if it's in our national interest". However, he stressed further alignment with the single market over the customs union was preferable given existing trade deals with the United States and India.
These comments are a clear shift in rhetoric and an early example of Starmer trying to shore up his vulnerable political position by throwing some red meat to his agitated and anxious Labour backbenchers, and a likely signal of things to come.
The Government is also attempting to get on the front foot on the domestic front. Later today, the Prime Minister will make a speech highlighting action being taken to tackle the cost-of-living. This reflects a renewed focus on government communications showcasing how it is delivering on the issues that matter most to voters.
Yet, significant economic challenges - including sluggish growth and rising unemployment - as well as record levels of small boat crossings last year and difficulties in improving struggling public services underscore the scale of the Government’s task.
This environment has fuelled leadership speculation which continues to dominate Westminster. Within Labour, names such as the Health Secretary Wes Streeting, former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, and Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham are continually cited as leading contenders to challenge Starmer this year.
Speculation also dominates the opposition, with serious questions remaining over Kemi Badenoch’s future despite a strong end to 2025, and even elements of increased scrutiny of Sir Ed Davey as the Liberal Democrats struggle to cut through in a crowded political environment.
New MRP modelling from More in Common paints a stark picture of this fragmented political landscape. It projects Reform UK on 381 seats, with no other party achieving more than three digits, and Labour and the Conservatives fighting for second place.
The May elections will be the major electoral test of this current polling. Without significant improvement, Labour and the Conservatives risk significant losses, while Reform, the Lib Dems, and the Greens stand to gain. Such an outcome could cement Reform's rise and intensify internal pressures within Labour and the Conservatives, potentially triggering leadership changes in one or both of these parties.
Westminster is back with a bang, and the political year is underway. With international events already colliding with domestic politics in dramatic fashion, 2026 is already shaping up to be a year that could quickly become more volatile, unpredictable and fascinating than many had anticipated.
Headlines
- Starmer vows to remain Labour leader during cost-of-living pitch to voters – The Independent
- Danish PM tells Trump to stop 'threats' against Greenland – BBC
- Collapse of ‘zombie’ UK firms forecast to fuel unemployment in 2026 – The Guardian
What’s on in Parliament
Monday 5th January
House of Commons
- Oral questions: Home Office
- Adjournment: Government support for the rights of women and girls in Afghanistan
- Westminster Hall Debate: e-petition 727514 relating to the length of the school week
House of Lords
- Oral questions: Support for parents to toilet train their children between 18 and 30 months
- Oral questions: Sudden cardiac death in young people
- Legislation: Diego Garcia Military Base and British Indian Ocean Territory Bill – report stage
Tuesday 6th January
House of Commons
- Oral questions: Energy Security and Net Zero
- Legislation: Second Reading of the Cyber Security and Resilience (Network and Information Systems) Bill
- Westminster Hall Debate: Therapeutic play and children’s healthcare
House of Lords
- Oral questions: Measuring the effectiveness of flooding interventions
- Oral questions: Whether military Chiefs of Staff have expressed concern over in-year defence spending
- Legislation: Sentencing Bill – report stage
Wednesday 7th January
House of Commons
- Oral questions: Northern Ireland
- Prime Minister’s Question Time
- Ten Minute Rule Motion: Student finance (review of payment schedules)
- Westminster Hall Debate: UK Town of Culture competition
House of Lords
- Oral questions: Protecting children in private messaging spaces from the prevalence of computer-generated child sexual abuse material
- Oral questions: Increasing productivity in the public sector
- Legislation: Crime and Policing Bill – committee stage (day 8)
Thursday 8th January
House of Commons
- Oral questions: Transport
- Business Business: Debate on a Motion on the Effectiveness of Magnitsky-Style Sanctions for Serious Human Rights Abuses
- Business Business: High street gambling reform
House of Lords
- Oral questions: Ensuring the safety and security of buses
- Oral questions: Progress towards target of building 1.5 million new homes in England within this Parliament
- Debate: Broadcasting in the United Kingdom
Friday 9th January
House of Commons
*The House of Commons is not sitting. The House will next sit on 12th January.
House of Lords
- Legislation: Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill - committee stage (day 5)
Consultations
- Warm Home Discount (WHD): cost recovery - closes 6th January
- Strategic review of merger remedies 2025 - closes 7th January
- Make Work Pay: leave for bereavement including pregnancy loss - closes 15th January
Statistics
- Road fuel prices: 5 January 2026 - published 6th January
- Impact of large events on consumer spending in local UK economies - published 8th January
- Pupil attendance in schools - published 8th January