Aoife Hollywood, senior client manager, looks at the top stories from the week ahead.
As we kick off the first full week of 2026, the temperature outside might be dipping but it is straight back to business for our politicians with the Holyrood election race set to heat up quickly.
It is a high-stakes year for Scotland politically with polls suggesting the Scottish Parliament will look very different to the one we have become accustomed to in recent terms.
Later today, first minister John Swinney will jump start his party’s 2026 with a speech in Glasgow where he is expected to pledge to build a “national movement of hope,” contrasting his vision for an independent, socially progressive Scotland with what he describes as Westminster’s “increasingly right-wing" system.
Meanwhile, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar will seek to distance himself from Labour’s difficulties at Westminster by focusing squarely on the SNP’s record in government. He is expected to argue the election is “not about a government elsewhere” but about who leads Scotland and what happens in its schools, hospitals, care homes and communities.
Speaking to the Scotland on Sunday ahead of the Scottish Parliament’s return this week, Sarwar said his party is preparing its “biggest and most ambitious campaign Scotland has ever seen,” tapping into what he calls a growing hunger for change despite Labour’s struggles in the polls.
Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay will also be speaking in Edinburgh today where he will set out his party’s renewed vision ahead of the election, concentrating on the cost-of-living crisis which includes plans to cut bills and boost economic growth.
In the United States, Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, are in custody in New York. President Donald Trump announced that the United States will temporarily take control of Venezuela, and will run it “until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition.” President Trump told US oil companies will help fix the country’s “broken infrastructure” and “start making money for the country.” The story dominated front pages on Sunday, and the United Nations Security Council is set to meet today after a request from Colombia, backed by China and Russia, making this a key week for international developments.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
Scottish Retail Consortium director David Lonsdale is urging the finance secretary, Shona Robison, to use next week’s Scottish Budget to support hard-pressed retailers by avoiding further cost pressures and introducing a permanent business rates discount. Writing ahead of the Budget, Lonsdale warns that rising taxes and weaker consumer spending are squeezing Scotland’s largest private sector employer and argues failure to match business rate relief available in England risks damaging investment, Scotland’s high streets and jobs.
Reported by Daily Business, economist Graeme Blackett, founder of the BiGGAR Economics consultancy, has been appointed chair of Prosper, the cross-sector membership think tank. He has warned that two decades of low productivity and weak growth have left too many people struggling financially but notes that Scotland has “once-in-a-generation” opportunities through the energy transition and emerging technologies such as AI. He has argued that collaboration beyond government will be crucial as the country heads into a pivotal election year.
Professor Sir Anton Muscatelli warns that Scotland’s regional economies risk slipping into a “middle-income trap” unless the Scottish Government adopts a more ambitious, joined-up approach to growth. Writing in The Herald (£), Muscatelli argues that greater devolution, stronger coordination across levels of government, and closer collaboration with the UK are essential, alongside better connectivity between city regions and high-tech clusters, to boost productivity, skills and long-term economic performance.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
After a tough 2025, Sir Keir Starmer tells Laura Kuenssberg he’s feeling refreshed and ready to “turn the corner.” He promises action on the economy, asylum hotels, and Ukraine, insisting he won’t step aside even if elections go badly.
In The Times (£), Robert Colvile argues that UK ministers’ fondness for calling policies “free” disguises the true and growing cost of the state. With UK public spending this year due to hit 45 per cent of GDP, he says the language of “free” services such as childcare and school meals encourages waste, delays and virtue-signalling. The biggest illusion, he argues, is the triple lock and welfare expansion. He warns that until the government is more honest about trade-offs and who really pays, the cycle of overspending will continue.
Writing in The Guardian, Samuel Earle argues that Zohran Mamdani’s rise to New York mayor shows that public disillusionment hasn’t killed politics, it has created a hunger for deeper participation. He highlights how Mamdani has built a movement that treats politics as something people actively do, rejecting decades of depoliticisation and scepticism about government. Earle contrasts this hopeful, collective model with leaders who assume voters want less politics, warning that emptiness is quickly filled by more destructive forces. He argues Mamdani’s success lies in proving that many citizens still want ambitious government and a politics that invites them in.
Shifting the dial - recent research
According to a new Mumsnet survey – the parenting forum that has historically drawn the attention of UK political leaders – Reform UK has overtaken Labour as the top political choice among the forum’s traditionally centre left mothers, in what has been described as a wakeup call for the party. Around 20% of users say they plan to vote Reform UK at the next election, up from 14% in 2024, while support for Labour has fallen from 41% to 18%. It is the first time since the Mumsnet political poll began in 2009 that Labour has been usurped by any party.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
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Westminster
- Oral Questions to the home secretary, Shabana Mahmood
- Backbench business: Mobile connectivity in rural areas
- Prime Minister Keir Starmer to speak about the cost of living in his new year pitch to voters
- China: Xi Jinping meets South Korean President Lee Jae Myung
- John Swinney New Year speech in Glasgow
- Anas Sawar New Year speech in Edinburgh
- Russell Findlay New Year speech in Edinburgh
- UN: United Nations Security Council due to discuss Venezuela
Tuesday
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- Finance and Public Administration Committee: Budget Scrutiny 202627
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Westminster
- Oral Questions to the secretary of state for energy security and net zero, Ed Miliband
- Second reading of the Cyber Security and Resilience (Network and Information Systems) Bill
- UK: Shop prices data from British Retail Consortium
- Epiphany
- US: Fifth anniversary of January 6 attacks on the Capitol
Wednesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Portfolio Questions: Constitution, External Affairs and Culture, and Parliamentary Business; Justice and Home Affairs
- Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party Business
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- Criminal Justice Committee: Prevention of Domestic Abuse (Scotland) Bill: The Committee will take evidence on the Bill at Stage 1; Prostitution (Offences and Support) (Scotland) Bill: (In Private) The Committee will consider a revised draft Stage 1 report
- Rural Affairs and Islands Committee: The committee will take evidence on the draft Climate Change Plan
- Economy and Fair Work Committee: The committee will take evidence on the draft Climate Change Plan
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Westminster
- Prime Minister’s Questions
- Opposition Day debate, Conservative motion to be debated
- Scottish Affairs Committee – oral evidence on GB Energy and the net zero transition
Thursday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- First Minister’s Questions
- Portfolio Questions: Education and Skills
- Stage 1 Debate: Building Safety Levy (Scotland) Bill
- Financial Resolution: Building Safety Levy (Scotland) Bill
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Westminster
- Oral Questions to the secretary of state for transport
- Westminster Hall debate: Third Report of the Scottish Affairs Committee, Problem drug use in Scotland follow-up: Glasgow’s Safer Drug Consumption Facility, HC 630, and the Government response
- UK: Lawmakers question BBC bosses following Trump lawsuit
- Results: Tesco Q3 and Christmas trading statement
Friday
- House of Lords: Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill
- Poland: Farmers expected to protest against EU-Mercosur trade deal in Warsaw
Saturday
- South Africa: President Cyril Ramaphosa addresses a rally to celebrate the 114th anniversary of the African National Congress party
Sunday
- Myanmar: Second phase of general election
- US: Golden Globe Awards