Westminster has returned from recess to a political atmosphere marked less by dramatic announcements than by a steady accumulation of pressure. Economic warning lights are flashing, familiar electoral loyalties are being tested, and unease is growing within the machinery of government itself. Taken together, the past week’s developments offer a revealing snapshot of a political system grappling with uncertainty, and a reminder that seemingly incremental stories can signal more significant shifts beneath the surface.
Economic data this week demonstrated just how fragile the recovery remains. Official figures show that job vacancies have fallen to their lowest level since the pandemic, with fewer than 700,000 roles advertised and graduate job openings dropping sharply. Overall unemployment has climbed to 5.2%, the highest rate seen in nearly five years, and youth joblessness in particular is a growing concern, with rates for 16- to 24-year-olds reaching double digits not seen in over a decade. Many economists and businesses point to rising employer costs, including national insurance contributions and minimum wage increases, compounded by automation and weaker demand, as key reasons why firms have pulled back on hiring. These trends add to the challenge facing Chancellor Rachel Reeves as she prepares for the Spring Statement, with Labour under pressure to balance support for workers against clear signs of a softening jobs market.
While the headlines on growth have been modest at best, the political landscape is shifting in ways that could have broader implications. In Manchester’s Gorton and Denton constituency, a seat that has been a Labour stronghold for generations, the upcoming by-election has morphed into a genuinely competitive race. Recent polling suggests the Green Party and Reform UK are both circling Labour’s vote share, with some tactical voting groups even urging support for the Greens as the best way to keep Reform out. The contest illustrates how traditional party loyalties can be disrupted when voters feel economic and social pressures have gone unanswered, and will be watched closely as a bellwether ahead of May’s local elections.
On public services, momentum continues behind planned reforms to the Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) system. The government’s White Paper, backed personally by the Prime Minister and the Education Secretary, aims to overhaul how support is delivered by replacing many Education, Health and Care Plans with new Individual Support Plans and investing in additional places and specialist staff. While the broad direction has won some praise, critics, including parent groups and teaching unions, have raised concerns about funding adequacy and how changes will affect families during the transition.
Perhaps the most striking story this week, however, has been the unexpected controversy surrounding the appointment of the new Head of the Civil Service. Reports have emerged that a historic bullying investigation involving the appointee, Dame Antonia Romeo, was subject to questionable handling, including claims that a confidential report was retrieved from a safe and subsequently destroyed. While the Cabinet Office has denied impropriety, the episode has stirred debate about transparency, vetting processes and the integrity of senior appointments in government. Whether this becomes a lasting political headache or a fleeting story remains to be seen, but it has already injected a note of institutional unease into Westminster’s discourse.
Headlines
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Zelensky tells BBC Putin has started WW3 and must be stopped – BBC News
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Martin Lewis ambushes Badenoch on Good Morning Britain over student loans plan – the Guardian
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Special needs education spending in England will not fall for nearly a decade – the Financial Times
What’s on in Parliament
Monday 23rd February
House of Commons
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Oral Questions: Housing, Communities and Local Government
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Westminster Hall Debate: e-petition 750236 relating to section 1 and 2 firearms licensing
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Legislation: Committee of the whole House and Remaining Stages of the Industry and Exports (Financial Assistance) Bill
House of Lords
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Oral Questions: Communicating the purpose and value of the newly-introduced V-Levels to students, parents, and employers
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Legislation: Medical Training (Prioritisation) Bill – Report Stage
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Legislation: Pension Schemes Bill – Committee Stage (Day 8)
Tuesday 24th February
House of Commons
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Oral Questions: Department of Health and Social Care
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Westminster Hall Debate: Impact of planning developments on local transport
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Ten Minute Rule Motion: Food labelling (halal and kosher meat)
House of Lords
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Oral Questions: Plans to use the Post-16 education and skills white paper to promote and deliver a culture of lifelong learning
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Oral Questions: Ensuring the UK is able to optimise the opportunities arising from quantum technology
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Legislation: Tobacco and Vapes Bill – Report Stage (Day 1)
Wednesday 25th February
House of Commons
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Prime Minister's Question Time
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General Debate: General Debate on Ukraine
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Westminster Hall Debate: Potential merits of a levy on energy developers
House of Lords
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Oral Questions: Extent to which British military equipment contains components made in China or is reliant on on Chinese rare earth minerals
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Order and Regulations: Digital Markets, Competition and Consumers Act 2024 (Alternative Dispute Resolution) (Conferral of Functions) Regulations 2026; Digital Markets, Competition and Consumers Act 2024 (Alternative Dispute Resolution) (Consequential Amendments) Regulations 2026
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Legislation: Crime and Policing Bill – Report Stage (Day 1)
Thursday 26th February
House of Commons
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Business Statement: Business Questions to the Leader of the House
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Backbench Business: General Debate on St David’s Day and Welsh Affairs
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Oral Questions: Department for Culture, Media and Sport
House of Lords
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Legislation: National Insurance Contributions (Employer Pensions Contributions) Bill – Committee Stage (Day 2)
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Oral Questions: New tax on small parcels entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain as a result of the EU’s change to the duty relief exemption
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Debate: European Affairs Committee report: 'Unfinished Business: Resetting the UK-EU relationship'
Friday 27th February
House of Commons
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The House will next sit on 2nd March.
House of Lords
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Legislation: Rare Cancers Bill – Third Reading
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Legislation: Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill – Committee Stage (Day 10)
Consultations
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Charging regime for offshore oil and gas activities – Closes 13th March
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Carbon capture, usage and storage (CCUS): non-pipeline transport – Closes 1st May
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SEND reform: putting children and young people first – Closes 18th May