Reform UK leader Nigel Farage announced four senior appointments to his party’s emerging frontbench team. With a focus on economic issues, Farage talked of Britain under a Reform government replicating the high levels of growth seen in post-war West Germany (the so called Wirtschaftwunder). Yet where do these announcements leave Reform, and its planning for government, as we enter a key period ahead of crucial local elections and the political fallout that could follow?
Here are three key takeaways:
1. Though policy-wise Reform’s rise has been closely associated with the increasing salience of immigration, and the shattering of public trust in the Conservatives on this issue, it’s been suggested that Reform doesn’t have any distinctive view of what the UK’s political economy should be, and would in power merely be a vessel for implementing a re-run of ageing Thatcherite nostrums.
That is now clearly not the case. Whilst we await speeches from Shadow Chancellor Jenrick and Shadow Business, Trade and Energy Secretary Tice in the week ahead, a distinctive economic approach, combining familiar centre-right tunes around lower taxation and cutting unnecessary regulations, with a celebration of the role of technicians in the British economy and the need for an Industrial Strategy at a time of geopolitically contested supply chains, is taking shape. Combined with a rejection of net zero, this would represent a distinctive programme compared to orthodox small-state conservatism. After all, it was Reform who last year led the charge for the nationalisation of the British steel industry – that campaign now looks a lot less like an outlier in the party’s wider economic thinking.
And with many commentators attributing the Conservatives’ recent (albeit modest) polling revival to a consistent focus on the economy, as well as capitalising on recent government scandals, having something to say on the issue that decides most general elections that is fresh but still distinctly centre-right will be key to winning over the next tranche of former Conservative voters who will push Reform above 35%.
2. Learning from the mistakes of Labour’s 2024 manifesto, which was designed to eliminate any hostage to fortune though has limited their freedom for manoeuvre in office, Reform seem intent on seeking a mandate to govern rather than just being the next in a series of parties to exploit the widespread ‘time for a change’ mood among the public.
Much seems to hinge on whether sufficient savings in the working-age welfare budget can be identified to fund a combination of growth-fuelling tax cuts, Government support for ‘strategic industries’, and a ‘retail offer’ to ‘Alarm Clock Britain’, whilst convincing the markets that a Reform government is a credible custodian of the public finances. And that a public desperate for change will accept short-term pain for themselves for long-term gain for a national economy still yet to return to pre-2008 growth levels.
If the required welfare savings prove difficult to find, would Reform look to other major – and voter sensitive – parts of public spending (such as pensions and the NHS) to keep their broader economic strategy intact, even at the risk of blowback from the electorate, or decide to ‘play it safe’? With the party operating on the basis of a general election next year, thornier policy dilemmas such as this will have to be resolved in months, not years.
3. Whilst today’s appointments reflected a blend of established party figures and recent defectors, it didn’t put flesh on the bones of Farage’s much-repeated commitment to get those outside politics but with deep expertise in certain areas into frontbench roles. Whilst several of those on the stage this morning have strong private sector and Ministerial experience, four of the five were serving MPs.
Should we expect then that the next tranche of shadow frontbench appointments will be centred on further broadening the party’s top team to those currently outside Parliament? The party has certainly made effective use of such people over the past year. Former prison governor Vanessa Frake was announced as an adviser on justice issues as part of the ‘Lawless Britain’ campaign which cut-through last summer; and Checkatrade founder Kevin Byrne fronted the launch of ‘Small Business for Reform’ last November.
In short, watch this space. Though how Reform would construct a genuine ‘government of all the talents’ whilst showing there is a pathway for future Reform MPs to obtain high Ministerial office – a key patronage power for any government to keep their footsoldiers in line – remains unknown. Moreover, with an impatient public unlikely to give a new Reform government much time to deliver, attracting those who can combine policy expertise and political nous will be the most crucial thing of all.