With less than two weeks until Wales heads to the polls to elect its members of the Fifth Assembly, the main political parties in Wales have now published their manifestos. On first reading, it is clear to see that there is considerable agreement on a range of issues, with four of the main parties delivering relatively centrist, pragmatic platforms. A significant UKIP presence in the next Assembly may however provide the contrarian, right wing alternative in a number of areas.
With the National Assembly for Wales about to enter a new chapter, as further powers are devolved from Westminster including responsibility for income tax, whatever the shape and make up of the next Welsh Government will be, there are some big decisions to be made. There will also be an opportunity for the business community to forge a fresh relationship with the new Economy Minister that will step into the elegant shoes of outgoing Minister Edwina Hart.
The Welsh Conservatives opted to launch their manifesto out of the Cardiff Bay bubble, heading to North Wales where the Party is challenging strongly in key seats such as Delyn, Wrexham and the Vale of Clwyd. While there were no major surprises in the manifesto, Leader Andrew RT Davies and his Shadow Cabinet team will hope that measures such as proposed cuts to the basic rate of income tax and 80mph speed limits will appeal to Welsh voters.
Welsh Labour meanwhile were the last party to launch its manifesto in the South Wales Valleys, promising ‘growth and security for everyone’. Following last year’s poor performance at the General Election, First Minister Carwyn Jones has been keen to promote the party’s pro-business policies, expressing its passion to continue to grow the Welsh economy.
In terms of business, each of the party manifestos with the exception of UKIP, pledge a reduction in business rates and a form of Welsh Development Bank offering access to finance to Welsh businesses. There is cross party support for the promotion of the City Region Deals, electrification of the South Wales Valleys Lines, expansion of the South Wales Metro project and the delivery of universal, super-fast broadband and mobile coverage across Wales.
Where parties differ is in the nature of government. Both Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Conservatives have proposed a new quango to make decisions about economic development. Whether a new version of the Welsh Development Agency which for 30 years was tasked with the job of encouraging business development and investment in Wales, sees the light of day may depend on whether the two parties can work over the coming Assembly term to deliver a non-Labour government. UKIP have suggested devolving responsibility for economic development out of the Welsh Government to local authorities rather than a national quango.
It appears that the major dividing lines between each of the parties are plans for the M4 relief road. Proposals for a new stretch of motorway to relieve congestion around Newport have dominated the last Assembly term, with figures suggesting that it could cost as much as £1.1bn.
The latest ITV / Cardiff University opinion poll on Assembly voting intentions will be revealed at an event for the business community next week. The predicted Conservative vote has however been tested over the last few weeks, as the steel crisis, Europe and the Panama Papers have dominated the headlines. As the immediacy of the steel crisis is reduced and the focus returns to other issues, the Conservatives would hope that the pendulum swings back in their direction after a difficult few weeks.
Either way, whatever the results of the poll may be, the patterns appear to be relatively set. We can expect Labour to be the largest party, but may need to rely on Plaid Cymru for support. However, with a five party Assembly on the cards as UKIP are on course to take seats in the Senedd for the first time, one should not rule out a change of government within the next Assembly term.